Friday, April 14, 2017
Project for this summer:
1. Learn Arabic.
2. Post on an Islamic fundamentalist forum that flowers are the virgin genitals of plants, and fruit are their impregnated genitals, so because of their lustful nature flowers and fruit should be haram, right?
3. Spend the rest of the summer watching the entire fundamentalist Islamic world die of scurvy.
Tuesday, April 11, 2017
Get Back Jojo - bearish reversal in gold and silver.
He called it.
Um... a breakdown in gold and silver, that is. Not, um, a new bull move in the miners.
You need to watch the Bollinger mean and a short EMA, Jordan. Not enough lines on your charts.
OK, now the market has decided to become interesting.
Exploding higher now. That's nice. People have been going short $VIX through XIV a lot over the past few months, when they should understand you only short $VIX right after it's spiked and the futures curve has gone back to even, then sell as it comes back down. As these guys try to lock in their profits or get out before the collapse, it'll flood the futures market and possibly produce a really big spike.
Which we can trade.
That is an unambiguously negative chart right now. It screams top. Over the past month MACD hasn't been able to turn up, and that last bounce off the SMA(50) only produced a feeble upmove that has now fallen flat. Now's the time for some fun, possibly.
It would be really funny if the entirety of the 10% move since the election gets given back. It shouldn't, because the 10% move makes perfect sense after a 2-year sideways consolidation no matter who's in the White House.
But if we lose some of that Nov-Mar easy money run, the people betting on easy money in the market will find out it's actually hard after all. Guess what? Trump didn't make you rich after all.
And what about the PMs?:
That touch of the SMA(50) yesterday, with a fakeout on the MACD, followed by today's good price action, is very positive. And we're very close to a higher high.
And you've been reading some of those guys who've thrown in the towel on gold and the miners, right? So was March just a cleansing of the market? Are we going up now?
That looks very positive, how GDX got kicked down below the SMA(50) last month, then fought back up, then spent 3 weeks trying to break back through the SMA(50). Especially with all the gold boosters spending an entire month blathering on about how gold was done. RSI is still healthy and MACD is only at zero, so we have a setup for a decent run if only we can find some volume to back it up.
Looks like goldbugs might have fun for a while.
Monday, April 10, 2017
Sunday, April 9, 2017
Really, the US economy is on set-and-forget. And since the election of Trump, the right-wing doomer brigade has had no ebil sociamalism to blame an impending collapse upon, so there's less worry in the market.
But still, I may as well give you some links once in a while to remind you of the above.
New Deal Demoncrat - March jobs report. His summary:
While the headline for most summaries of this report will probably be the miss in the headline jobs number, the deeper trends appear to be a continuation of what we have seen for the last few months: significant declines in both the unemployment and underemployment rates, a continuing sharp increase in labor force participation (the biggest in nearly 30 years), but continuing wage growth stagnation. These trends are probably linked. The big move from people off the sidelines into the labor market is probably helping keep a lid on wage growth.
The only other negatives in the report is the stubborn high number of people outside of the labor force who want a job now, and the decline in the manufacturing workweek and overtime.
All in all, this was a quite positive late cycle jobs report, as the YoY% gain in jobs continues to decelerate, but remain positive.
New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Summary:
You can always find at least one sector that looks bad. One year ago it was manufacturing. Now it is brick and mortar retail sales. But the vast majority of indicators demonstrate that the outlook over the next 6 to 8 months remains very positive. The outlook for one year and further out remains generally neutral with a slight positive tilt.
New Deal Demoncrat - OMG it's a slight pullback we're dooomed. Wherein he uses graphs to disprove idiotic bullshit.
Calculated Risk - hotel occupancy increases yoy. Still better than median, still better than 2015.
Calculated Risk - rail traffic increased in March. Total carloads is still better than 2016, but not 2015.
Bespoke - consumer pulse: home improvement. Interesting little tidbit: the fraction of home improvement involving an outside contractor has gone up.
All in all, many reasons not to piddle your frilly little pink panties.