Friday, April 29, 2016
Gee, you ask, is there a way to still be long North American equities without so much exposure to possible US collapse, but also be long gold, long miners, sort of long oil, and gee also maybe snag a bit of that positive outperformance of Canadian banks?
Sure. XIU.TO. It's an S&P TSX 60 ETF.
* Canada's finished its recession, and Trudeau's going to stimulate growth if it kills him. Our economy should go up from here, relative to the US.
* The Canadian banks have always made money, yet the stupid yanks have sold them down to a 4% yield. But now, the yanks are looking for any way to make money safely, and suddenly 4% yield with the prospect of capital protection really must look good to them. The Canadian banks are all traded in New York, by the way, and we already know that asshat cracker Yanks love sloshing around in kiddy pools that are far too small for them.
* XIU.TO offers a 3%-or-so yield. That's 50% better than SPY, with more possible upside.
* Pretty much the only companies the TSX 60 has as its components are banks, insurance companies, and miners. Oh and maybe a couple consumer stocks. Oh and a couple worthless joke companies like Bombardier and SNC Lavalin, but at least we can be certain the Liberals will give them free money.
* The S&P 500 and the TSX seem to have gone extremely uncorrelated recently. That's good for reducing your risk if you're a SPY owner, but it's also something that maybe the quants will chase.
* Xiu Xiu was a good band.
PS: Post #5500!
IKN - GLD bullion holdings. Quote:
Interestingly the holdings of bullion in the biggest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), are some 20 tonnes lower than this time last month despite the recent pop in gold.And yet since 3/28, gold's still been going up.
That means someone's been buying it besides Whitey. To the tune of more than 20 tonnes.
What happens when Whitey decides to switch sides and quit fighting the price, do you think?
I uninstalled Chrome in an attempt to reduce the bloatware and mothership chatter on my computer, so I'll be unable to post charts for you til I can find a new browser that works in Google's bullshit Blogger platform.
But if you go look up some charts, you'll see $VIX popped to 16.35 as of this post, and SPY is continuing last afternoon's bot-driven drop through its Bollinger mean. So I guess markets will go down for a while. It was all going to end anyway, as we got closer to the UK's guaranteed vote to leave the Eurozone.
Meanwhile, embarrassing Jeffy Currie at GS to no end, gold is breaking through $1280. Wut happen?
I guess people all of a sudden want to buy gold, eh?
The story is that the whole commodity pop is the result of new crackhead blood, as Chinese traders discover there's a thing called a commodity exchange. That's supposed to frighten you right there, because the Chinese are maniacal gamblers who flood into a market by the billions, blow out prices, then watch the whole thing fall apart leaving them broke.
Which is fine, except that also describes Wall Street Whitey, and frankly I think it's nice to see a billion new crackheads join the commodity futures world. That's futures demand, whatever else you call it. And I doubt it's psychologically possible for someone from China to go short gold. Frankly, this alone should scare the entire cracker world into going long gold.
I mean, hell! What if you decided to dump 50 tons notional into thin bids, only to get it all gobbled up in China, and that's the last you see of that price? I really don't think it's a good idea to short the Chinese. They have a radically different culture that's the product of 5000 years of very different history. They are not to be counted on to act like some wanker from NYC.
Besides, if we are approaching the second half of a secular DM bull market, commodities are supposed to inflate back up anyway. That's what they do, right?
Of course, that may not happen this time, since all the DM world leaders are pursuing aggressive deflationary policies. Maybe in the next few months they finally succeed in destroying world demand forever?
Of course all the skinflint German grannies will bitch about getting 0.01% interest on their savings accounts, but quite frankly, Hilda, nobody needs your fucking savings because your Nazi finmin has successfully destroyed all loan demand in Europe, you ugly bitch. Good luck loaning funds to Iran.
As for $SPX, I see no reason for it to crash down to 1900 again, except out of force of habit, at least til England votes to move its island 500 miles west and the rest of the EZ goes back to destroying Greece some more. And maybe Pooty-Poot can do something to kill the markets too - keep reading Zerohedge for clues as to who he's going to invade next. I'm sure the presidents of the Baltic countries are scanning that website every day making sure Pooty isn't saying anything about them.
Anyway, if the $SPX does look like it's going to tank, that should inspire the range traders to puke it even harder, because with no earnings growth and world aggregate demand down the shitter the only way you can make money is on the range trade. Shorting volatility with XIV could have made you 50% over the past 3 months, I'm sure people want another at-bat.
Which is another reason people will go long gold and long gold miners - because they're jealous at how much money's already been made since the bottom. Hell, I'm jealous. And that demand will be enough to turn the tide on gold.
Maybe I guess.
Bloomberg - ooh! unmasking the secret writers behind Zerohedge!
It's been no secret that Zerohedge is run by the neo-Nazi paid Russian disinformation agent son of a known cold-war Bulgarian spy. The other guys don't really matter that much. In fact nothing about them really matters that much, except that what you're really reading is whatever anti-American propaganda Vladimir Putin pays for. So when the guy says that Ivandjiiski's disinfo website's main slant is:
Russia=good. Obama=idiot. Bashar al-Assad=benevolent leader. John Kerry= dunce. Vladimir Putin=greatest leader in the history of statecraft
We knew this already. Not news.
Thursday, April 28, 2016
So apparently Amazon and Facebook turned out fantastic results; in addition, it turns out Apple's drop was entirely because that limp dick Icahn decided to dump his stake in the misguided belief that he knows anything at all about China.
So maybe now Wall Street Whitey will quit selling the fucking Nasdaq like a panty-piddling two-year-old girl who just saw a bug, and get some fucking sense through his head.
Here's some news:
BBC - John Boehner calls Ted Cruz "Lucifer". As a Luciferian Satanist, I am quite offended.
der Spargel - German Nazis forge closer ties with Moscow. Those of us familiar with Zerohedge are not surprised by the continued Russian support for Nazis.
Reuters - Varoufakis calls Europe a cesspool of deflationary forces. Um, V-dog, cesspools don't contain forces. They contain feces. "A cesspool of deflationary feces" is more correct. Even better, just call them a pack of Nazi-worshipping right-wing lickspittles.
Well, I finished all my exams. I got an embarrassing A in micro, but an A+ in macro. Dunno about stats but that had damn well better be an A+.
No clue whatsoever about development economics - I don't think I had the slightest problem on that exam, but it was a written exam and I need a 93 for an A+ in that class.
But 2 As and 2A+es would give me a $1500 scholarship, which would be nice.
As for the market, it looks like gold miners are taking another leg up - dammit, Kinross is even beating the double-long ETF! Two touches of the EMA(10) probably means the next consolidation goes down to the Bollinger mean at least, but who knows?
And as for broad equities - dammit, isn't Royal Bank looking great. It's beating the S&P 500.
I might get back to regular posting soon, but frankly I haven't been arsed, what with the lack of news. I'll leave you with a funny quote from Polemic's Pains:
If the UK left the EU and joined Apple each household would be £6,000 better off.
I think this is a hint that Apple in in late-stage talks to buy out ASDA.