Saturday, September 5, 2015
Friday, September 4, 2015
Well, okay, actually it is always funny to make fun of Norwegian Satanic death metal:
Except now they're going to have to worry about Varg Vikernes coming to visit them one day.
Here's some reading:
FT Alphaville - the death cross is bullshit. Pretty simple, really: it has no predictive value because it's backward-looking.
Calculated Risk - the August jobs report. What's that? You want more? Well, how about:
New Deal Demoncrat - the August jobs report. Wage growth still stinks, because the fascist kleptocracy that you voted for keeps it that way.
WSJ RTE - the August jobs report in 10 charts.
Calculated Risk - the Fed's beige book. And the US economy is still doing fine, if you assume the people at the Fed are the most educated economists in the world who are doing their best to safeguard the US economy through adherence to their dual mandate. Of course, if you instead believe the Fed are Satan-worshippers in service to the Lizard People who are here to destroy America and bring about a one-world government headed by the Antichrist, you must have a different opinion. Like Peter Schiff.
Mark Thoma - the latest from GDPNow. It's 1.2% below the 2.7% consensus estimate; because Janet Yellen knows the guys at Atlanta Fed, she might take this into account at the rate discussions. Cuz y'know, the Fed mandate is not to crush GDP growth when there's no inflation. Then again, last quarter the GDPNow estimate stayed below consensus til we got closer and closer to the date: there might be a modelling problem.
FT Alphaville - China fx policy DOOOOOM. It is, honestly, scary when you read about it. Then again, you'd think China knows more than the Financial Times about how to manage China, right?
Mark Thoma - the divergence between productivity and pay. Hey Mark, what about conceptualizing the capital share of growth as a kind of rent? Certainly looks like companies are making profit above what they should in a monopolistic competition model, no? And not sharing with workers, right? And using their political power to encourage laws that eliminate worker bargaining power, no?
Here's Katy Perry singing about how she used to subscribe to some loony's TA newsletter and believed all his bullshit about fiat Weimar Zimbabwe and Ludwig von Mises and all that crap, but eventually she quit reading his garbage and just bought the QQQ and has never felt better:
Thursday, September 3, 2015
Tuesday, September 1, 2015
Cullen Roche is on BI saying how this crash is like 1998. Which he got from some guy on CNBC this morning - don't remember who, it was some clown was saying it's 1998 all over again.
Which is stupid, because I've been reading Joe Stiglitz's account of 1998 (he was there, working at the World Bank) and this is not 1998. 1998 saw the complete collapse and forced IMFing of multiple countries one after another.
China, today, by contrast, is shutting down polluting steel plants and switching over their economy, they love-tapped their currency by 4%, and their stock market has simply gone back to where it was in February. No money was lost, except for phantom 1s and 0s born in spring and now fading in summer.
I was especially dumbfounded about CNBC's newfound interest in EM currency crises: they seem to have forgotten the ruble dropped almost 50% BECAUSE WE ARE AT (economic) WAR WITH THEM.
So here's Cam Hui bringing us a little bit of sense:
Humble Student of the Markets - 2015=1998?
Though unfortunately he gives 5 seconds of attention to Ray Dalio, who is a clown.
at 5:54 PM
Monday, August 31, 2015
I dunno if they'd let you do this as an undergrad, or if you'd have to be a grad student, but I just realized it would be very interesting to look at the economic problems caused by the European single currency area (which patently doesn't work) and how it would change if there actually was completely free movement of workers through the EZ.
Because I'm really into the idea of taking on the kleptocrats' assertion that corporations should be allowed to move through countries at will in search of the most favourable tax regime, while workers even within the ECU are essentially kept in nation-sized concentration camps unable to travel legally to seek higher-paid work elsewhere.
Yeah, I know: allowing free movement of workers would mean fifty million Bulgarians, Yugoslavs, Albanians, Greeks and Spanish showing up in Germany that week all looking for jobs.
But considering the German economy is driving the ECU into constant imbalance, then maybe free movement of labour is the libertarian market mechanism that would cure the problem? High immigration would definitely solve the problem of the demographic cliff facing Germany, where (from what I've seen) the women are so god-damn ugly that it's no wonder there ain't no children being born there.*
Rationalwiki - Zerohedge. Ha, this is funny reading. Here's the intro alone:
Zero Hedge is a batshit insane Austrian economics-based finance blog run by a pseudonymous founder who posts articles under the name "Tyler Durden," after the character from Fight Club by Chuck Palahniuk. It has accurately predicted 200 of the last 2 recessions.Tyler claims to be a "believer in a sweeping conspiracy that casts the alumni of Goldman Sachs as a powerful cabal at the helm of U.S. policy, with the Treasury and the Federal Reserve colluding to preserve the status quo." While this is not an entirely unreasonable statement of the problem, his solution actually mirrors the anatagonist in Fight Club: Tyler wants, per Austrian school ideas, to lead a catastrophic market crash in order to destroy banking institutions and bring back "real" free market capitalism.The site posts nearly indecipherable analyses of multiple seemingly unrelated subjects to point towards a consistent theme of economic collapse any day now. Tyler seems to repeat The Economic Collapse Blog's idea of posting blog articles many times a day and encouraging people to post it as far and wide as humanly possible. Tyler moves away from the format of long lists to write insanely dense volumes filled with (often contradicting) jargon that makes one wonder if the writers even know what the words actually mean. The site first appeared in early 2009, meaning that (given Tyler's habit of taking a shit on each and every positive data point), anyone listening to him from the beginning missed the entire 2009-2014 rally in the equities market.The only writer conclusively identified is Dan Ivandjiiski, who conducts public interviews on behalf of Zero Hedge. The blog came online several days after he lost his job at Wexford Capital, a Connecticut-based hedge fund (run by a former Goldman trader). And chose his pen name from a nihilistic psychotic delusion.
I especially like how "consistent theme of economic collapse any day now" links to an article on Peter Schiff.
There truly are more people like me out there in the world!
Zerohedge - Austrian economics is now equivalent to terrorism. This was where I found the link to that Daesh video on the gold standard (yes I feel dirty).
What's funny isn't so much that Daniel Ivandjiiski calls the video a case of US psyops:
The coins may not be there, but instead ISIS released a 55-minute propaganda video with the latest in straight to YouTube special effects, in which the ISIS voiceover actor says, in perfect English, "as history repeated itself, one of the great forms of corruption that the earth came to witness was the dark rise of bank notes, borne out of the satanic conception of banks, which mutated into a fraudulent system of enslavement orchestrated by the Federal Reserve in America - a private corporation and system that would, through the use of deceit and force, deprive people of their due, by imposing upon them the usage of the piece of paper that came to be known as the dollar bill."
"It is the Federal Reserve bank note that they alone print, and that would go on to replace gold and silver which Allah created as the standard mediums of exchange for the purchase of goods and services. Allah blessed the songs of the Khilafah and gave them the ability and foresight to break from the shackles of the Federal Reserve system and to restore the gold dinar, and the silver dirham as the ultimate measure of goods and services beginning in the birth place of the Islamic State."
The punchline: "the currency is meant to break the shackles of “the capitalist financial system of enslavement, underpinned by a piece of paper called the Federal Reserve dollar note."
It just gets better from there and for the next hour, the video basically goes through the failings of not only the dollar as the Fed's currency of choice, which since 1971 is no longer backed by any hard asset, but does a surprisingly good job of explaining the pitfalls of fractional reserve banking (30 minutes into the clip), which as many have witnessed first hand, nearly resulted in the collapse of capitalism, then several years ago, the Lehman failure showed that should financial counterparties fail, there is not nearly enough underlying assets to satisfy existing credit claims. It gets so funny, ISIS even bashes the petrodollar system (38 minutes in), and quotes Jim Rickards (39 minutes into the clip) as supportive of its "evil" observations.
What is implied, is that it does all this by making such observations and thoughts indicative of affiliation with ISIS, and hence, terrorism.
No, what makes it really funny is that Ivandjiiski has waived his supposed "anti-Nazi policy" and allowed his userbase to unleash a flood of racist comments, basically blaming the whole thing on (you guessed it) a Jewish conspiracy to (oh this is great) discredit Austrian economics and bring back Keynesianism.
Nobody ever changes their stripes. And right-wingers will always be fucking idiots.
BI - Goldman Sachs says this chart looks like this only when there's about to be a recession. With this chart:
Uh, no, it doesn't, and Goldman Sachs didn't say it did either.
That chart "only looks like this" when people are buying downside protection. That's what the $VIX is an index of. And people buy downside protection whenever the S&P drops 5%, like last week.
There is a dataset of recessions that has only three relevant times: 1991, 2001 and 2009. Whereas this chart shows the $VIX above Business Insider's "scary line" in 2011 twice, when we didn't have a recession. So Business Insider's implied dataset is garbage to begin with.
Again, Business Insider are posting such stupid childish crap that you have to wonder if they're trying to drive away anyone with an iota of intelligence and only sell the eyeballs of fucking idiots.
My god what a stupid website they've become.
Reuters - central bankers at Jackson Hole tell Fed they're expecting a rate hike. OMG! Panic! All the central bankers of the world are telling the Fed they're prepared for rate hikes!
Central bankers from around the world are telling their American counterparts that they are ready for a U.S. interest rate hike and would prefer that the Federal Reserve make the move without further ado.
In private and in public at last week's global central banking conference in Jackson Hole, the message from visiting policymakers was that the Fed has telegraphed an initial monetary tightening and, following a year-long rise in the dollar, financial markets globally are as ready as they can be.
Oh god no! They're as ready as they can be! Sell sell sell!
[...]for Agustin Carstens, the top central banker in Mexico, a rate hike by his neighbor sends an encouraging sign of economic health, even if it does force growth-challenged Mexico to also raise rates within days.
"If the Fed tightens, it will be due to the fact that they have a perception that inflation is drifting up, but more important that unemployment is falling and the economy is recovering," Carstens told Reuters in an interview.
"For us, that is very good news," he added.
Oh god no! That is very good news! Sell sell sell!
"It's a long anticipated event," Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan said on a conference panel, sitting alongside Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer. "It has to happen some time - everybody knows it has to happen - but pick your time."
Those comments were supported by central bankers from Japan, South Korea and Indonesia. When asked earlier this month whether he thought the Fed should hike in September, Bank Indonesia Senior Deputy Governor Mirza Adityaswara told Reuters in Jakarta: "The more certainty there is, the better."
A senior South Korean policymaker echoed that sentiment.
Oh god no! It's a long anticipated event! Sell sell sell!
In all seriousness, it's great that the central bank of India, presently held (ignorantly and incorrectly) as a paragon of right-wing Thatcherite economics, is okay with this. Because I think it's been the idiot Republican fruitcakes who have been panicking this past week.
Because they think everyone on the Fed is an idiot, and they're way smarter.
Maybe this week they'll buy back the stocks that they puked last Monday at a 10% discount to reasonable market price.
Sunday, August 30, 2015
Y'know, Barack, I've seen you reading my blog before, and I strongly suggest you let Daesh keep this video up.
Because dammit it's like a Republican/paleoconservative/Alex Jones/Ron Paul (before he became a Russian stooge) video on bullshit 13th century economic theory, but with Arab history included!
And by the way, it stands to reason the Arabs hate fractional reserve banking as much as American Republican fundie wackjobs... after all, they both hate the Jews.
But anyway, Allah beautified gold and silver, so I think I'll go rub some against my dick now.