Friday, May 1, 2015
Copper is not gold!:
But copper is a metal mined out of the ground and then sold to China. Just like gold.
Oh and by the way, copper is also a metal where 80% of all of the metal ever mined is still out there today, supposedly waiting to be sold into the market. According to Whitey, anyway. Just like supposedly gold.
China doesn't look so sick after all, does it?
PanAm - Galt's Gulch Chile back in the hands of its rightful owner.
Or so says the rightful owner! I guess!
And how do they establish who the rightful owner is? Through the courts! Socialist statist courts!
And how do the aggrieved parties pursue their claims? Through the courts! Communist confiscatory courts!
“The irony to all of this is that these people, along with Josh Kirley, Jeff Berwick and a few others, refer to themselves as ‘rescuers’ of GGC … much like when an unwanted and unneeded military force invades a foreign country to pillage and destroy for natural resources.”
Oh, Jeff! Dear Jeff! You've turned into a statist communist confiscator! Why do you hate private property so much?
at 12:09 PM
Here's yet another Asobi Seksu video:
Thursday, April 30, 2015
CNBC - OMG India monsoon failure! Anusya Harjani hasn't bothered to ever look at the data, which would tell even the most casual observer that aggregate Indian agricultural output isn't seriously affected by a rainfall of 7% below average.
Meanwhile, from the news in the country that actually knows something about India, such as how to find it on a map and that its capital isn't named "Indianapolis":
Indian Economic Times - two weather forecasters enter! One weather forecaster leaves! IMD is facing off this year against a new up-and-comer, Skymet, who disputes IMD's forecast for below-normal rains. And for what it's worth, IMD failed to predict four droughts in eight years in the 2000s. The real story, which whitey is ignoring, is this:
Singh is in fact more worried about the searing rains that he says will continually lash India for much of May — typically supposed to be a dry-rain starved month — and contribute to instances of crop loss. Concerns over farmer distress because of unseasonal rains have rocked parliament and therefore rain — deficient or in excess — is likely to be a hot topic this year.But it doesn't matter anyway because Indians don't buy gold. Right, whitey?
Here's more news:
Bespoke - bullish sentiment still depressed. Their graph:
So you can ignore Cam Hui's reprint of this Hulbert chart:
which, by the way, is only telling you that aggregate newsletter sentiment is high when the market is in an upward trend, and only drops when the market is weak.
So what did Hulbert's chart look like from, say, January 2013 to August 2014, when the market went up by over 40%? Hm?
Bonddad - Bernanke 1, WSJ editorial board 0. Quote of a quote:
It's generous of the WSJ writers to note, as they do, that "economic forecasting isn't easy." They should know, since the Journal has been forecasting a breakout in inflation and a collapse in the dollar at least since 2006, when the FOMC decided not to raise the federal funds rate above 5-1/4 percent.Dude, he scored another one after that too. Why'd you wave the second one off? You're a shitty ref.
WSJ Nazi-Time Economics - Democrat lawmakers push $12/hr minimum wage plan. To be fair, they know there's no way in hell they can get it past the senate and congress. And we know that they know. But it's nice that now, when it doesn't actually matter, they finally decided to give a shit about the working poor.
And by the way, regarding today's movement in GDX:
The intermediate upward trend (since March) still isn't broken. So I guess the goldmine buyers have learned to fade the robotic monkey-hammering of the gold price on insignificant data points that have nothing to do with China and India.
I was over at Cam Hui's blog, wondering if he's calling for another "intermediate top" like everybody else has for the past three months, and realized that this whole blogging scene is really easy to get into, y'know?
So, to help all of you start your own blogs, here's my primer on how to write a bearish blog post:
Upon hearing today's initial claims number, the proper response for a US equity investor is not "ermagerd! Unemployment is low! Sell! Sell! Sell!"
Also, nobody should be scared of 1) the Fed raising rates too early because they're idiots or 2) a 0.25% hike off the ZLB causing financial armageddon.
Oh and also, gold has utterly fucking nothing to do with US unemployment because (repetez avec moi) Americans don't buy gold.
I might have to be away all today... damn stupid university isn't charging me for tuition for the summer and I have to sort it out before the payment deadline.
Oh, and I'm reading the Canadian edition of Mankiw's into macro textbook. Because I have my eyes open, I'm finding neocon/plutocrat disinformation and propaganda on every single page. Not "differences of opinion in economics", but actual disinfo, propaganda and swipes at "leftist" mainstream economics.
So, I'm sorry Mr. academic economics profession, but your collegiate respect for Mankiw is completely unearned and misplaced. You're supporting a fucking clown who's still campaigning for that klepto-plutocrat Romney, and by that association you're whoring your profession out to thieves and fascists. I'm almost driven to do a page-by-page analysis of his textbook here on this blog - or maybe on another blog - just to illustrate exactly how much of a propaganda hit-piece his shitty economics textbook really is.
Anyway, here's the news:
New Deal Demoncrat - Q1 GDP poor, as expected. He knew it was going to be crap, here's the details. And as for economic surprises? There are no more from this point forward, thanks to the Atlanta Fed GDPNow calculator.
Tim Duy - FOMC commentary. As noted, there is none needed.
WSJ RTE - thoughts from the Fed statement. Read it only to understand what the takeaway has been for the idiots who were too fucking stupid to sit down and read Rosengren.
The Guardian - Krugman on austerity. Very long piece that is essential reading. Kruggers trying to influence the UK election, though he kinda ignores that every major UK party now is blathering the austerity bullshit: none of the parties perceive reality anymore.
Econospeak - truthiness, media framing and the political economy of economics. Economics says things the real world will never hear, because what they're saying is dissonant with the belief system of the plutocratic elite who control the media.
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
I love how market liquidity immediately vanished at 13:59:59.999, leaving the bots scrambling to and fro in an empty book, puking stocks then slurping that puke back up then puking again.
I was watching a South Park episode at the time. Good to know I didn't miss anything.
This is hilarious:
BI - the Fed says the slowdown is temporary and now the markets don't know what to think.
In reality, I betcha Janet stuck some funny keywords in there, like that time when the entire market was wondering when the word "considerable" was going to be removed from the statement, and so she removed the word "considerable" and then added a sentence saying "we removed the word 'considerable'", thus fucking up every single stupid robot connected to the market running a word filter on Fed releases.
I think it is a cardinal duty for a Fed boss to do as much as possible to make the algos lose a fortune.
It's just a coincidental bonus that she also makes stupid Republican idiots lose a fortune.
Face it, clowns! If everything you know about "economics" you learned from an Ayn Rand novel, or from Ron Paul's paid Soviet propaganda website, then you shouldn't be trading based on Fed commentary. Go play with Bitcoins in the kiddie pool and leave the market to grownups. You're only hurting yourself and your idiot Republican clients.
The Canadian dollar collapsing from $0.90 to $0.78 in the space of five months was the biggest pile of bullshit I ever saw. Even if there's a major secular shift in the currency regime, it shouldn't take 5 months to get there.
The bullshit USD price is now happily correcting itself:
Which, of course, means American exporters are seeing some major improvement to their bottom line. Actually it doesn't since input costs go up as USD goes down, but don't tell that to idiot American traders.
So why do they want to puke US stocks today? Because they have a made-up reason to now, and they're always on the wrong foot, and can't believe in the strength of their country. Because all traders are Republicans, and Republicans are all traitors against America.
CBC News - hey Verdmont, this is how Canadian banks make all their money. They don't make all their money in the oil patch, Verdmont. They don't make all their money through any sort of productive endeavour whatsoever. They make all their money through parasitic rent-seeking:
For many small business owners, the thousands of dollars they are paying in bank fees are biting into the bottom line.
"We seem to turn around every day and there's something else that we were charged for," says Tim Gardner, co-owner of a Massage Addict franchise, a provider of registered massage therapy, in Brampton, Ont.
Since opening less than a year ago, in July 2014, Gardner says he has paid almost $7,000 in fees.
Most of those fees were connected to a small business loan, which was provided by Scotiabank under the federal government's Canadian Small Business Financing (CBSF) program.
Gardner, who worked in banking himself before opening his business, says Scotiabank charged him a $2,150 application fee.
"Which I don't get," he says. "Because after 23 years of taking applications myself, it doesn't take a lot to adjudicate an application."
Gardner was also charged a monthly account fee of $25 for the 10-year length of the loan, which amounts to $3,000.
Scotiabank also charged him $971 for a letter of credit, stating he had at least $50,000 of his own funds accessible to his landlord in the event of a default, he says.
The landlord required the letter be good for two years. But Gardner says Scotiabank would only make the letter good for one.
"Earlier this month, I was looking at our bank account and noticed they had taken out another $971 for the renewal of that letter of credit," says Gardner.
"So it's like, 'Whoa, are you kidding me?' I don't get it. It's literally a piece of paper that's addressed to the landlord saying these funds are available in the event we default."
How could anyone today think that a financier is beholden to the whims of the market? They get your money when you come in the door as a new customer, they collect rent on your money for every minute of the day it remains in their possession, and they get their money when you're wheeled out in a coffin. Any possible risk is always hedged out.
Basically, as long as there is capital in Canada, the banks will continue extracting their pound of flesh. Every day. In an increasing percentage from year to year.
That's what banking is.
And this is what happens when you have the wool pulled over your eyes by the pseudo-economic propaganda of the neocon right wing:
your short call failed.
BI - Q1 GDP growth was 0.2%.
Now, while some of the Q1 disappointment was because of continued European contraction, and some Q1 disappointment came from the oil patch collapse, a big chunk of the problem was the weather. Everything east of the Rockies was in a crippling deep-freeze for months on end.
I don't know the climate details, but if the recent trend toward crippling cold in the east is related to the continued drought in California, the north Pacific warm spot, and the recent trend toward expansion of the east Siberian snow pack in fall, then all these might be instances of climate shift..
If so, then we'll continue to see crippling cold in the eastern US every winter, which will mean a deviation of US GDP growth below trend, which means a permanent loss in output that grows over time. Same for a long-term drought in California: that'll mean a drop in US ag output and increase in costs to maintain cities.
If you're some sort of econometrics guy, you should easily be able to calculate the permanent loss in US economic output resulting from climate change. Now you have a price tag on pollution.
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
BBC - Finland discovers Russian sub in their waters, drops depth charges.
Yup. No holding meetings, no discussion, no idle chit-chat with the UN. Go straight to the depth charges.
After all, it might not be the Russians! It could be invading aliens! Or Cloverfield or Godzilla! Or the Illuminati or Satan or witches!
Best to bomb the fuckers just to be sure. And if it happens to have been a bunch of drunk Russkies out on a joyride? Well, they were supposedly grownups, they knew where the borders are, and it's not like it would be the first time Finland spanked the Russkies' sorry asses.
Here's a news story:
Mining.com - El Salvador's massive gold reserves sale.
Here's a quote:
Analysts are not sure what to make of El Salvador’s recent move that saw its central bank sell about 80% percent of its gold reserves in March, according to figures published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).Here's a gold chart with sarcastic commentary:
The small Central American nation’s reserve bank sold 5.412 tonnes of gold for $206 million, depleting its gold reserves from its previous holdings of 6.8 tonnes, IMF data shows.
And elementary chart-reading tells us that the plundering white-ass honky slave-master fascist plutocrats earned a nice 3% profit on the deal.
Nasdaq is simply working off its overbought condition from Friday and filling the gap.
Apparently blah blah biotech blah blah bubble is a thing now too. Because it's not like Biogen and Celgene are rolling in cash, right?
Oh and also blah blah Fed meeting blah blah rate rise is a thing, so a couple days of fear narrative can build a more constructive position for the market to then react to the improvement in economic data that we'll be getting all through Q2.
And then there's $VIX:
I did say last Friday that I thought 12 point something was a bad place to go long, except maybe in a breakout, yeah? Well, now Whitey feels he has to buy downside protection against a possible false breakout. That'll eventually set up a declining-$VIX signal that'll make the robots happy in a day or two.
For the time being, any $VIX below 15 doesn't scare me. Any $VIX above 15 is an eventual opportunity to short $VIX - as long as the front months aren't changing their curve, of course.
And gold popped, and it's not because blah blah Fed blah blah economic data. Gold popped because the Chinese and Indians are about to go on another summer buying spree. And because Whitey was misled into expecting a final collapse. Turns out we were being handed the script by GDX all along.
Even godawful MUX and BTG have popped above their SMA(50)s.Turns out patience might just be rewarded over the next couple months.
Monday, April 27, 2015
That white candle you see is the screaming of the PM shorts as they get colonically pleasured on Opex.
That white candle you see is the screaming of the PM shorts as they get colonically pleasured on Opex. It seems many white-ass honkies are becoming someone's bitches today.
I giggle at all the doom I saw in this weekend's goldbug newsletters, with everyone crying and predicting a final doomish meltdown of dooooom. How does that chart breakdown look now, guys?
Here's some general reading:
New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators. Rail is good, consumer spending is good, tax withholding is still beautiful. Quit piddling yourself, now's the time to go long.
Econospeak - good to know EU negotiations are focusing on the important stuff. Quote:
Reports out of Riga about the negotiations between Greece and other Eurozone members have been rather curious. There has been much emphasis on how the other fin ministers do not like or get along with Yanis Varoufakis, the Greek one. He did not go to dinner with them. He is the only one not wearing a tie. Draghi does not look him in the eye. Djesselbloem calls him by his first name in person and refers to him as "the Greek finance minister" when not in person. The others do not like him "lecturing" them with his British education and his time in Australia, and, gosh darn it, why does he not just up and accept their demands for full austerity for Greece!Better proof of the plutocrats' utter disinterest in good governance you won't find. They're all in it for themselves, and it makes you pine for the good ol' days when the masses would rise up and kill a few thousand of the bastards to get their attention.
It looks like this is more about him breaking the rules of a fraternity than about seriously coming to an agreement that most observers think is not that far away. Time for these clowns to grow up.
Groda - Buffy the Eurocrisis. It's only funny if you're very familiar with the plot of Buffy TVS.
The National - loonies liven UK election. Hey, Bez from Happy Mondays is running in Manchester! Why can't we have something like this in Canada? I need to look into starting an Illuminati World Enslavement Party. Then we could have this:
Here's gold over the weekend:
And silver is 5 cents above where it was Friday morning, which gives you a clue as to where gold is really going once OpEx passes.
Once again, proof that the high-frequency signal generated by bullshit options trading should be ignored completely, and you should concentrate on the underlying low-frequency signal that is generated by physical supply and demand.
Because futures aren't gold and futures eventually cancel out.