Friday, July 18, 2014

GLD, GDX etc - last thoughts before market close


Do I buy back my Rio Alto before the close? Or not?

Charts:


I dunno. GDX still looks like an uptrend. The short EMA violation reversed completely, and that's a nice candle to end the week. It might still be topping, but it also might still be correcting before another leg higher. Do you want to wait for a new high to print? That's always the question. Isn't it good to buy at RSI=50 after an overbought condition?

But the three line break chart looks like crap unless we close above $27.20 or so.What to do?



GDXJ looks good too. The bad % loss today is only because it took off so strongly yesterday.



And yet GLD's chart sucks. That does look like a bear flag, all it's done is reverse at the SMA(50), it's still below its short EMA and the attempted cross of the EMA yesterday failed.

Then again, gold was slammed several times this week to the tune of $4B notional. When are they intending to buy that position back? After opex?



SLV also doesn't look as good, but considering it was also slammed this week, it's still a darn strong chart. And now that crazy overbought position in RSI has been worked off.

So do I buy back more Rio Alto at the close? Or not?

It's not an easy decision, like shorting $VIX at +3SD.


Some news that's not about murdering civilians


Here's some market news:


Bespoke - morning commentary. Quote:
Following the sun’s departure from the United States yesterday evening, Asia-Pacific markets opened sharply lower, putting an end to their more localized regime of price moves. Early in trading, the Nikkei was off sharply (-1.6%), the ASX index of Australian stocks was down over 60 bps, Hong Kong was 1% lower and China started off 40 bps below Thursday’s close. But the universal reaction from these indices was for traders to buy the dip: every single major regional market gained steadily through the morning on the western edge of the Pacific, with gains of roughly 60 bps across the board, taking China and Australia positive on the day and all indices well off their early lows, which were not seen again. In other words, while a repricing took place (Hong Kong off 28 bps, Nikkei off 101 bps), there was no acceleration of concerns, and markets found a clearing price for the new risk premium with steady demand for risk assets in the face of lower prices.
Buying the dip? That's good. So I guess my shorting $VIX at the close turned out to be the right move?


Chronicles of Brodrick - smart money chart. Hey Sean, there's other people in the blogosphere who have been saying "smart money has been selling for months! Get out of the markets because only the dummies are buying!" So are there multiple "smart money indicators" which are in disagreement with each other? If so, that's not very smart, is it?


Bonddad - get ready for an awesome Q2 GDP print. Or maybe I should avoid all the "smart money indicators" commentary altogether and spend 10 minutes a week reading the economic analysis at Bonddad and Calculated Risk? Following "smart money indicators" seems like a shortcut to avoid reading real economic commentary. That doesn't sound very smart, does it?


The Irrelevant Investor - cherry picking. I think this one's about gold, but Tumblr is blocked here at work so I dunno. Message to bloggers: posting stuff on Tumblr doesn't count as blogging. It counts as getting in the way of my enjoyment of teen girl selfies.


Chronicles of Brodrick - blah blah charts. Except for this:
And my consolations to anyone who lost someone on the plane. Why was it flying over a war zone, anyway?
It was flying over a war zone because air traffic controllers, whose profession it is to control air traffic, cleared it to fly above 32,000 feet. Air traffic controllers tell you where to fly: a pilot doesn't get to do whatever he wants. If planes had to avoid all war zones there would be no air travel. Perhaps the question you should ask is "why did a Russian soldier decide to commit a violation of the rules of war by not sending an interrogation signal to determine if it was a civilian plane before firing a SAM at it?"

More Ukraine news


The Guardian - Russian forces are now destroying evidence. They realize they were stupidly posting proof that they have a SAM missile launcher and bragging on the internet about using it to shoot down this plane. Now they're running around deleting stuff from the internet to try to cover their tracks. Unfortunately they still don't understand that we know how to take screenshots, and we never trusted these subhuman vermin to own up.

By the way, here's a photo of the operator's console for a Buk:


That would be real easy for some drunk Donbas "freedom-fighter" to operate, no? It's point-and-click, ain't it? You wouldn't need more than a manual to operate that, would you? You certainly wouldn't need training from Russian soldiers, or be a soldier yourself, to operate that!


The Guardian - Sara Firth resigns in protest from her London correspondent position for Russia Today. This is hilarious:
Sara Firth, who worked at Russia Today for five years, described the channel’s reporting of the crash in which 298 people were killed, including a former BBC journalist, as the “straw that broke the camel’s back”.

Russia Today, which has been criticised as a propaganda mouthpiece for the Russian government, suggested Ukraine was to blame for the crash, while most media organisations have said it was shot down by a suspected Russian-made missile.

“It was the most shockingly obvious misinformation and it got to the point where I couldn’t defend it any more,” Firth told the Guardian.

“When this story broke that was the moment I knew I had to go. I walked into the newsroom and there was an eyewitness account making allegations [against Ukraine] and analysis, if you can call it, from our correspondent in the studio.

“It was just appalling, in a situation like that where there are families waiting to be informed and a devastating loss of life.”
Wow, Sara! It took you til yesterday to figure out that you've been working at a company that spreads disinformation against the West? There was nothing else suspicious in your five years at RT?
She added: “I have always fought against this argument that RT is an evil network but you wake up and think, that’s just wrong.

“It was not an easy decision, I started my career at RT, and I respect many of the team there. In the end it got to the point where I couldn’t defend it and I didn’t believe there was something to defend. A story like this really highlights it.”
You started your career at Russia Today? Well dear, it looks like you've ended your career there as well. Good luck finding a new one. Quitting RT doesn't demonstrate integrity; at best it demonstrates that you've finally clued in to how much of a sucker you've been.


I dunno, are these bear pennants?


You tell me:


I dunno, does that look like a bear pennant to you?




Does that look like a bear pennant too?

Or am I just imagining things?

Or were the smackdowns this week meant to draw scary charts, in the same way the late-May smackdowns did? I remember I called bullshit on the late-May action, and I've made a lot of money on that. Is this the same thing?

And has anyone noticed that gold has already touched the bottom of June's big white candle, while silver is still acting quite a bit stronger since the pop? Anything to do with silver being an industrial metal, you think?

And hey, has anyone on Wall Street yet realized how illiquid the gold options market is, even during the US market, by seeing how yesterday's gold price spike on the Ukraine news has slowly dwindled away over the subsequent 24 hours? Has anyone yet learned that the gold options traders are swimming in too small a pool?


Pre-open US market checkup


Some charts before the open:


The S&P dove a bit yesterday, due to the whole imminent Third World War fear.

I actually watched a bit of Cramer last night. He was far behind the curve in terms of the news flow (I guess he gets all his news from Business Insider), and he also suggested it's a good idea to leave this for a few days before buying. I only present this because his opinions may be indicative of a fair number of US traders. Looking at the chart above, the S&P 500 closed yesterday in no-man's land and the next support is the SMA(50).

People have been crowing about how they want a correction and a buy opp; let's see how interested they are now that they've been given a buy opp today.



QQQ has been very strong, then dove to its Bollinger mean yesterday.

After looking at these two charts, and the MACDs, I suspect this could be one of those automatic TA-style triggers that promotes a "what the hell, let's just dump stuff" type sell-off like what we see happened in March. But there's no reason for it.

As well, MACD has been crossed over all through June, and yet QQQ was still going up. That's the problem with momentum indicators: they only show you short-term divergence from the longer-trend momentum.



R2K has been incredibly weak. I mean wow, that chart sucks. But now it's gone below -2SD, which has usually provided a bounce of at least a day or two. Then again, is newsflow supportive of that kind of move today?

And you know, with their fixation on the news of the moment, people might just be forgetting that sometime in the next week or two the USA is going to report an incredibly strong Q2 GDP number.



And like I said, $VIX printed a huge spike for the end of the day. 14.5 is over three standard deviations above the mean; then again, the bands have been tightened in the past month, so that doesn't mean as much as it used to.

Can we get a spike to 20 on the $VIX? I don't see why that should happen. It's just not sensible. Frankly, you see innocent civilians getting killed all over the world all the time, and the market never cares.

We'll see. Like I said, the market is being handed a buy opp, but they might not take it for a couple days.


ABC Australia also has a useful news feed about the Russian attack on MH17


ABC News (the Australian one, not the American one) also has a good feed on the Malaysian Airlines attack. Though I guess there'll be little action on the site during the day today since it's night-time over there.


Friday videos: Spectrum


Here's some very noisy stuff from a guy named Sonic Boom:







Thursday, July 17, 2014

PS, Angela Merkel just murdered four German citizens.


Here's the initial victim list from MH17:

NATIONALITIES: - 154 Dutch - 27 Australian - 23 Malaysian - 11 Indonesian - 6 British - 4 Germans - 4 Belgians - 3 Filipinos - 1 Canadian

So, Angela Merkel, you are now guilty of murdering four Germans. After all, it's been you who's been sucking Putin's cock for cheap natural gas while the rest of the world has been trying to solve the Ukraine crisis.

I guess it's not that big a deal for her, though, since she also managed to kill 154 Dutch, 27 Aussies, 6 Brits, 4 Belgians and a Canadian. After all, that's a much better point differential than Hitler.


THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES JUST READ MY BLOG, NO REALLY, I AM NOT SHITTING YOU: here's proof


OMG PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA JUST CLICKED ON MY BLOG TODAY.


No really, here's proof:

click to embiggen

I'm pretty sure he doesn't let just any old asshat into his Executive Office. This wasn't Rand Paul dropping in and saying "hey Barry, mind if I use your computer to check up on shitty gold stocks for my dad? I promise I won't enter the launch codes for world war 3 and blame it on you after."

I wonder what Obama was looking for? Information about who shot down the Malaysian jetliner, perhaps?

My god that would be pathetic.

HE'S THE PRESIDENT OF THE WORLD'S ONLY SUPERPOWER, HE SPENDS TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS A YEAR ON ESPIONAGE AND THE MILITARY, HE HAS HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF SPOOKS WORKING UNDER HIM IN MULTIPLE DIFFERENT AGENCIES, AND HE NEEDS TO COME TO MY BLOG TO FIND PROOF THAT THE RUSSKIES SHOT DOWN MH17?

My god, Bo-dog! The Guardian has been telling you this for 6 hours now! THE RUSSKIES ADMITTED IT ON VKONTAKTE!!! The fuck, are you getting your news from MSNBC? Got nobody who can read Russian in your inner circle?

You're briefed when Angela Merkel wakes up with a boil on her fat sweaty buttcrack! You're notified every time David Cameron gets another blowjob from that Moldovan hooker the Russians are controlling him with! Can't anyone in your fucking staff keep you in the loop about an actual warzone?

He couldn't be coming here for emergency research. God no. I simply refuse to believe that. Unlike most people in the blogosphere, I do have confidence that the most powerful country in the world is run by people who do know what the fuck they're doing.

(Though he did surf here without using NoScript. Seriously Mr. Obama, that is rank incompetence from your sysadmin, right there. You really need to tell your cybersecurity dudes to install NoScript, Ghostery and AdBlock Plus on all official computers. If you were using NoScript I'd not even have known you had visited my page. Do you really want the President of the United States, the most powerful man in the universe, to even be seen by some mouth-breathing loonie like me?)

(and fuck dude, really? You use Internet Explorer? You?!? Gates has written two dozen back doors into that thing just so he can read your emails!)

OK, so let's dig deeper. What particular pages did the President visit?

click to enhugeify

Oh shit, okay. The archive for the week of Feb 16th. Shit shit shit. What did I do? Oh crap, I didn't say something illegal that week, did I? Fuck fuck fuck.

AM I ABOUT TO GET "DISAPPEARED" BY US SECRET SERVICE AGENTS? ARE THEY ON THEIR WAY ALREADY?

Let's look at what I posted on the week of Feb 16th to see if I need to be skee-daddling out of town:


Friday videos - Kylie's catchy new single. OK, prez, that's cool. You're really suffering the stress, what with America and the USSR "Russia" teetering on the brink of war, so you came to my blog to listen to some Kylie. That's cool. You've got musical taste. And "Timebomb" is a real floor-stomper.

Market Narrative is even more not a blog than IKN. OK, that's cool too. You wanted to see humourous kitten gifs to distract you momentarily from the looming apocalypse, and so you came here. Humourous kitten gifs may save the world yet.

Two morning newsbits on gold, plus dietary advice. OK, you're under stress, so you google "egg mcmuffin" and you land here. Hey, no big, Clinton used to pound back Big Macs and he turned out alright, except for that whole murdering Vince Foster thing.

The pic I posted of the letter from a crazy dude looking for a chick he met at the bus stop. OK... you probably weren't interested in that. You probably see enough crazy people letters in your anti-fanmail.

I make fun of Grant Williams and how I'm not going to see him at PDAC. I guess it sucks for Grant Williams now that he knows even the PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA has read the post where I mock him for his grossly inaccurate past predictions.

GLD is not gold. It'd be interesting if B-dog came for this article. Yeah I doubt it. Doesn't look like the typical goldbug. He's too... what's the word? swarthy? Yeah, that's it.

Opinion on the PDAC speaker list, silver chart, Lydian chart, more news, GDX:GDXJ chart... fuck dude, I post a lot of fucking senseless garbage, don't I? Who the fuck reads this shit anyway?

SMBC's cartoon on Hitler fighting time-travelling assassins? I hope Barry got a laugh out of that one. Seriously, Prez, you should subscribe to smbc comics. He's real funny, though he's unfortunately cut down on the dick and poop jokes now that he's gotten all married and procreated.

Anyway, we'll never know what he came here for. But we now know that my blog has been visited by the FUCKING POTUSA BITCHEZ.

Do you know any other blogs that can claim this?

No. No you don't.

You don't know any other blogs that have been visited by BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA PRESIDENT OF THE FUCKING U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!

So fuck you, all the rest of the blogosphere: I am now officially better than all y'all. Fuck you Ritholtz, fuck you Josh Brown, fuck you Joey the Weasel. Fuck yuz all.

ZEROHEDGE IS OFFLINE: here's why


Zerohedge is offline right now.

Maybe the Russians' murder of 300 civilians on the Malaysia Airlines plane has made them feel guilty for having spent the past several years acting as paid shills for Vladimir Putin and Russia Today?


At the close, I did a dumb thing and shorted $VIX


Well, for no particular reason, Wall Street Whitey was dumping US stocks at the close today. $VIX was up by +3.5SD.

So I flipped out my PG for a half-day $400 win, dumped out my new Japan position at a small loss, and threw the kitchen sink into HVI, the Canadian-listed short VIX ETF.

I figure Whitey was just avalanche-puking on the Russia news. Russia should admit the mulligan by tomorrow's open and the situation will be more clear. People will feel better tomorrow, they'll realize that the killing of three hundred civilians won't affect Corporate America's profits.

I've never seen VIX gap up from a +3.5SD close, but if it does, I'm doubling down on that bitch.

If it doesn't gap up, it's a quick win.

Now let's hope Pooty-Poot doesn't double-down on the stoopid, making the $VIX term structure invert. He's already made the mistake of being a co-conspirator with idiots; hard to believe he's an ex-spook. Proper spook thing to do is cut the idiots loose and let them dangle.


And the best site for the Malaysian crash coverage is....


The Guardian - coverage of the Malaysian airliner crash.

The BBC's coverage has been lacklustre, CNN seriously presented as an "expert" a guy who suggested SAMs leave exhaust trails, and I haven't even bothered to check the crappy CBC.


CONFIRMED, THE RUSSKIES DID IT: here's why stupid people should avoid using Twitter (update 2)


Photo confirmation, courtesy of Fark:


Translation: the Russky agents in the Donbas bragging back in June about seizing a Buk anti-aircraft system from the Ukrainians. The Buk is capable of shooting down an airliner at altitude.



Translation: the Russky agents in the Donbas bragging about shooting down a military transport near Progress mine, around the time that the Malaysian airliner was shot down.

Moral of the story: don't post on Twitter or Vkontakte when you're drunk or stupid. This includes Russians.

Case closed, last one out please turn off the light.

UPDATE: but wait there's more!


You really must have a tiny dick to have to brag about the materiel you captured. Most armies keep that stuff secret. Here's a good reason why today.




Because they realize they dun goofed.

UPDATE 2: The Guardian on the Buks, because no other news agency is covering this angle yet, being stupid.


RUSSIA SHOOTS DOWN MALAYSIAN AIRLINER OVER UKRAINE: shit just got real man


UPDATE - confirmed, the Russkies shot down the plane, here are screencaps of them admitting it.


BBC News - Malaysian airliner crashes in Ukraine. Reality check: as of this second there's no confirmation that it was shot down, and Malaysian airliners have been hitting the ground on their own quite a bit recently. Joe Biden just confirmed it was shot down, the Guardian says it was shot down, the Russians have admitted shooting it down.



Go read the post linked to above, this one no longer applies.


Wait... what? Is Otto serious? Or is he joking?


IKN - tinfoil. Where he posts this chart:

Ha ha! Ha ha ha! Ha!

...ha....

Wait....

Um....

You're joking, right?

(googles [Putin gold NSA])

Um...

Ha ha! Ha ha ha!

...ha....

Um....

Wait....

(checks Zerohedge)

Ha ha! Ha ha ha...

Wait....

Um....

(searches infowars.com)


GOLD SUDDENLY DOESN'T SUCK AGAIN: here's what you need to know


Charts:


Gold bounces off the SMA(50), but then also retakes its short-term EMA.

So I guess it doesn't suck anymore?



Silver suddenly pops as well, because reasons? Fuck I dunno.




And GDXJ bounces off its Bollinger mean, prints a Bullish Abandoned Baby, and yadda yadda what the fuck ever.

I dunno, I guess you can just load up on junior miners again, because now someone's monkey-hammering gold and silver back up. I bot back my PG and RIO, we'll see how long it looks like a smart idea to keep them.

UPDATE: actually, I guess the PMs probably popped because of the Russians shooting down that Malaysian jetliner. It being a war crime and all.

So do we discount this upmove? Normally I'd say yeah.

But it might be different this time because someone has been trying to smack down gold and silver all week, and now stupid politics (which has no bearing on gold and silver demand but whatever) has intervened to screw up that dude's position. Sucks to go short gold and silver and then suddenly have politics generate new upward momentum against you.


Taking care of something from my bucket list


One of the things I want to do at some point in my life is get an outrageous degree from a diploma mill.

Apparently, the topic is making the rounds again after some journalist (British, I think - they have a way of getting all worked up about stuff) purchased an MBA for his dog.

The story linked to above (The Star, 2008) is interesting because one of the people featured used her fake BA to get into Osgoode. She'd have had to legitimately pass a legitimate LSAT with a fantastic score as well, and she was a year away from graduating when the article was printed, and she'd already lined up a legal job, so that should tell you how useless a real degree is anyway. So why not get a fake one?

Now, an MBA is rather useless. Every moron has one nowadays, and you may as well just tattoo the word "useless wanker" on your forehead. But I'd certainly be happy to get something like a Masters in Divinity.

Even better would be a Ph.D. from "the United Nations Institute for Training and Research for courses in Global Terrorism".

Or why not both?

It's something on my bucket list, and it'll come in useful if I ever lose my job and decide to turn to a life of Evil.


WE DON'T NEED GEOLOGISTS ANYMORE: here's what you need to know


Now this is neat.

Forbes - the astonishing nickel-eating plant that could change mining.

Discovery - using flowers to concentrate platinum.

Hey, the future is the age of genetic engineering, no? So why wouldn't we someday use plants to concentrate minerals from the soil, instead of mining them?

Though of course whereas traditional mining attacks an orebody that's a half-mile deep, biomining would only be "mining" the top six inches of soil. And thus you're left with barren soil (nothing will grow if the soil doesn't have enough copper, magnesium, and so on).

Funny thing is it's not a very new idea. James Lovelock wrote decades ago about the iodine cycle, where seaweed "mines" iodine from the sea's dissolved salts and then concentrates it in its tissues; then the seaweed washes up on shore, rots, and produces methyl iodide vapour which gets taken up in the air and rained down over land. The iodine cycle is important because it prevents goitre.

There are other mineral cycles that are entirely plant-dependent too.

Anyway, it's a neat idea, and you should probably sell all your mining company shares because mining is doomed.

UPDATE: Cookie Monster's take on the idea is "tonnage seems rather limited". Then again, I guess he would say that.


Some Thursday morning news


Funny enough, but according to my stats, nobody even reads my news posts. And yet they are all so very interested in any old stupid thing I have to say about gold and the miners.

I guess that means nobody gives a crap about understanding fundamentals.

So here's some morning news for you.

FT Alphaville - low vol just happens sometimes. Hey, Keohane - it has nothing to do with any of that, and that HSBC analyst shows he has no clue by blathering on without reaching a conclusion. I'm convinced that the secret is this: volatility is now just another commodity bought and sold on futures markets. Thus supply and demand reigns. Except vol has had (for the past 5 years anyway) the interesting (for a futures contract) feature of making you money when you roll over the short position. The corollary is that the market will become very interesting when we enter a long, slow upward vol trend and short rollover starts to cost money. Which does happen in bull markets.

Kotaku - Manuel Noriega is suing over Call of Duty. Are you allowed to libel a person when they're serving a prison sentence? Maybe not, but you are allowed to if he's an Enemy of America. Because reasons.

Mineweb - on the latest gold smackdown failure. Lawrence Williams notes that $4B of paper has been puked into gold, but here we are still at $1300. I guess the reason a person doesn't buy at this point is because the pukes have demonstrated someone wants to kill gold, and so we'll stay out of the way until the killing is done, right? After all, what reason does anyone have to puke $4B paper, instantaneously?

Noah Smith - gold dreamers face harsh reality. Yeah, you don't have to read it - he's as clueless as the rest of the Wall Street Whiteys about gold supply and demand. He's still blathering on about interest rates and inflation and other stupid America-centric things, as if America actually buys gold anymore. Yes, he does give the boots to Zerohedge - though even then, Noah fails to recognize that its coverage is slanted by the fact it's a paid Russian propaganda website.

Mining.com - Marin Katusa on your anium. Yeah it's the Caseys, yeah it's Katusa. But it's an interesting read, because he says he expects U to suck - he's not at all constructive.

Raw Story - a parasite in cat poop cures cancer. Don't wait for the treatment to hit the shelves - you'll just be paying $1000 a dose anyway. Instead, get yourself a kitty and you'll be cancer-free forever. Because science!


Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Only in America


Except they seem to be importing this garbage into Canada too, as well as all through the UK, and the entire Islamic world is also full of this childish bullshit:


But that's okay because it means less competition for the technical and scientific jobs that will make all the money over the next hundred years.


Morning goldbug chart delivery


So what now? I got no answers for you, only more questions:


GLD is below its short-term EMA, so it's in a downtrend by definition. Big selling volume the past two days. Only the people who bought below the gap are still showing a profit. MACD is broken too. And if you go look at the three line break chart, gold is broken there too. But oh look, you say, it's at its SMA(50), so won't that provide support?



Well SLV is also below its EMA, and it's in no-man's land with a long way to drop. So if silver is a hint for gold, maybe we can expect more doom.




GDXJ is also below its short-term EMA, in no-man's land, with two big selling days, so I don't give a crap about the support cluster at $40-$43.

But wait:


Copper still looks positive for now. Will it also break down? Does copper correlate at all with silver and gold?

And does anything at all depend on the Indian monsoon, Chinese physical demand, or summer gold seasonality?

By the way, they're still killing each other in the Donbas. But apparently that stopped having an effect on the gold price.


Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Ha ha, gold miners be gettin killed


Was busy watching the gold miners get killed more today. Here's some news:


BI - retail sales missed and nobody cares. The headline for the retail sales story was misleading - in the same way that Joey The Weasel was misleading when he said Yellen called "asset prices stretched" when she was only referring to corporate debt.

Calculated Risk - the California budget surplus. How nice of California to run a pro-cyclical budget, eh? Not like there was anything to learn about the Great Depression, eh? Don't worry, the state will go bankrupt again next time there's a downturn.

The Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - in which Josh Brown wanks over the latest chart making the rounds in the permabear camp. Hey Josh, here's a question: if Institutional really have been strong net sellers since 2012 and that chart isn't simply a bullshit lie, then what the fuck are they plowing that money into? I mean, when you sell a stock you get money in return, right?

Washington Post - Larry Summers is wrong about secular stagnation. A basic explanation of his idea first, then a really good explanation of all the crap Summers utterly misses.

Rhodium Group - China's fiscal and tax reforms. Long background article.

The Economist - China's surprisingly inefficient logistics. As Billy Bishop says, this would be a fantastic place for China to achieve productivity gains.

Mineweb - gold loans lure consumers in India. All you have to do is pay 12% interest per year. Ha.

Chronicles of Brodrick - various TA "support levels" for gold. Speaking of which, the June-September gold seasonality seems to always include one significant pullback of a week or two somewhere in the middle. So I guess the goldbugs can hope that the drop isn't severe and there's a chance to reload and jump back in for another 20-30% pop before September.

That is, as long as the monsoon doesn't fail. Cos the seasonality doesn't happen when the monsoon fails. Because India buys the world's gold.


Monday, July 14, 2014

Some noon news


Some Monday morning blather for you:


Economic Times - monsoon showing signs of revival. Quote:
"Activity is shifting towards central India and some parts of northwest plains. Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon into remaining parts of west Madhya Pradesh, many more parts of Gujarat, east Rajasthan and some more parts of west Rajasthan," the Indian Meteorological Department had yesterday said.

The agency has added that it is expected to be rainy for the next 48 hours due to a weather system (low pressure) which is seen extending from east Madhya Pradesh up to Odisha coast. Rain in central India is also expected to increase further in the next 48 hours, becoming fairly widespread with some isolated heavy showers likely in Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh.
So quit your whining.


Times of India - monsoon reaches Delhi. Like the precip forecast map says. Now let's see if the rainfall can catch up to where it's supposed to be.


Mineweb - Jeffrey Currie doubles down on his gold ultradoom forecast. He still calls for $1050 apparently. Is that the only reason gold dropped today, because Goldman Sachs said so? Because I've already mocked Currie and set him to ignore.


World Complex - silver draws squiggly lines in phase space, therefore something or other. Wherein he analyzes silver prices in context of his weird phase space hobby. It seems he's suggesting silver goes up from here, or something.


Mineweb - Lawrence Williams thinks the bullion bank shorts mean there's an imminent smackdown. Uh, no, Larry. That's not how it works. The bullion banks hold short positions because they're the counterparty to long gold bets.


R2K has been underperforming


Here's two ratio charts:


The Russell 2K has underperformed the Nasdaq since last summer.




And it's similarly underperformed the S&P 500 since this past winter.

Any reason why, do you think? And are we nearer a point where IWM underperformance sees a bottom and turns around?

Underperformance to QQQ has been more brutal, but maybe that's because of the growth story for tech relative to the growth story for small-caps.


Monday morning gold smackdown - here's the charts


So as of 10AM, here we are:


So gold has been smacked down hard, first on (I guess?) German industrial production numbers, then at 9AM because reasons.



GDX still holds on to its EMA, though.




And GDXJ is holding its short EMA too. For now.

The questions are, do we get any follow-through today, and do we get a correction of a few weeks? Losing the EMAs means the miners go down a bit more. They are far away from the SMA(50), and the MACDs are threatening to break down, so it could happen, sure.