Saturday, May 17, 2014
Whenever there's a new inrush of Daniela Cambone searches on my blog, I know that there's a bunch of new Daniela Cambone interviews posted on the Kitco YouTube page.
And guess what? She's been at the Metals & Minerals Investment Conference, interviewing people.
Let's see if any of this is worth listening to at all:
Ritholtz - the 10 things I'm watching. Some of the list is tangential and not really of interest, but here's an important observation:
1. All-time highs: Markets are within a few percent of record highs. Each and every pullback, if we believe the noise, is the end of the rally and the start of the next bear market. Unless it isn't, in which case, never mind, we will be back with the same forecast when the market is 5 percent higher. I can't recall so much angst amid so many all-time market highs; every pullback is the end of the world. It is both fascinating and perplexing.It's because people have been bombarded with doom and gloom for the past decade. The Republican platform is built on this, for fuck's sake. Fox News thrives on doom and gloom. Even the movies are all about zombie hordes and 2012 and now Japanese radioactive monsters. The public has been beaten like red-headed stepchildren, so badly that now it's always expecting another biff in the face.
Wanna predict the secular top of the next bull push? Watch out for movies like Josie and the Pussycats. It was cute, silly, happy and meaningless, and its principal photography schedule basically top-ticked the US market.
Legally Blonde also came out that year, and was silly and meaningless as well (seriously? a dumb chick studies for 2 days and gets a 178 on the LSAT?!?), but Josie and the Pussycats is a much better movie.
But anyway, as long as aliens/zombies/crustal shifts/giant monsters are destroying NYC/Los Angeles every 6 months, the market can go nowhere but up.
In summary, Ritholtz, quit being a fucking pussy.
Then Barry says this:
3. Secular bull market?: Jeff Saut of Raymond James believes we are in a secular bull market. He noted that in the 1980-85 period many investors continued to doubt that the earlier 16-year bear market was over. Very, very few were willing to accept that the cycle had turned. There are many parallels between this era and that, and I am slowly moving into Saut’s camp.Hurry up you fat pussy. What the fuck more evidence do you need? And when it finally comes in, will the market be 20% higher without you? Quit being a fucking pussy.
Then Barry says this:
5. Earnings season: Despite what you have been told, earnings season was solid. Both revenue and earnings posted more positive surprises than average. Yes, earnings relative to gross domestic product is at an all-time high, something people have been telling me for six straight quarters now.That's an important point that's lost on everyone who failed grade 7 math (like most TAs and newsletter writers). And Barry's right, the data right now suggests US GDP will accelerate.
Like all ratios, GDP/earnings has two sides: To revert back to its historical mean, either earnings must come down, or -- and no one seems to be really considering this -- GDP must accelerate. I have no idea which way this mean reversion will go. But I am considering the latter as much as the former.
It's all still up in the air, sure: Rosie's capex spending boom still hasn't come, and maybe it doesn't come until a higher inflation rate forces cash-rich businesses out of cash. But you may as well buy the market before the capex boom comes.
Here are some newsglobules for your enjoyment:
Calculated Risk - a few comments on housing starts. Bill McBride knows how to look under the hood and analyze data.
Bespoke - S&P rolling 10-year returns. Justin Walters and what's-his-name-the-other-guy also know how to look at data, and here's what they say:
Since 1937, the average rolling 10-year return for the S&P has been 103%, so the current 10-year gain of 64.8% is only two-thirds of the average.If this is a new secular bull market, then it's wise for you to shake off the stupid secular-bear thinking that's been weighing you down.
FT Alphaville - two-fifths of a dotcom crash. Another idiotic article, this time basically asserting that today is like 2000, and the S&P is about to go into a horrible two-year bear market, just because fucking TSLA and DDD are correcting from grossly overbought. Because supposedly the falling Nasdaq stocks' share of total US market cap is anything resembling what it was in 2000, and because supposedly we should expect another two years of collapse in the tech stocks.
Oh, as well: from now on anyone who facetiously tosses stats and charts around without knowing what the fuck they are, without even thinking about what they mean, and then concludes their amateurish non-argument with a facetious "oh, unless it's different this time" gets a fucking kick in the teeth from me. Even if I have to wait a lifetime.
Holy fuck, the Financial Times has gone downhill. This article was like something from fucking ZeroHedge. I'm tempted to call this pile of bullshit a bottom-tick of the Nasdaq.
FT Alphaville - charting Europe's Japanification. Not interested in the article, but I am interested in the idea that the next big expectation for Europe is a Japan-style stagnation. This is partially because the fucking neocon clowns in Germany, and their lackeys in Finland and Austria, might finally get the blame for destroying Europe's economy. We can only hope.
Mining.com - mining deals: a light at the end of the tunnel. Yeah, you guys keep telling yourselves that.
Friday, May 16, 2014
Breaking $23.50 to the downside is kinda bad.
Wow, losing $34.50 would suck!
What's the problem? Is gold losing support?
Well, gold doesn't really look that bad. So I don't get it.
Maybe everyone just thinks there's going to be another run of the gold stops, since gold has been hammerblowed at 8:30 AM each of the past two days?
Or maybe the guys who were playing gold miners as a proxy for a Modi victory are unimpressed with how their position played out, and are dropping in disgust?
Or maybe, simply, potato.
Thursday, May 15, 2014
Just look at the smut that I've found on Wikipedia!
King Size Dick
and, of course,
Fap Fap Fap Fap Fap Fap Fap Fap Fap Fap Fap Fap Fap Fap Fap Fap
Here is some morning reading:
BI - Cisco CEO on the global economy. He says the US is fine, Europe seems to be bottoming, and the EMs look atrocious. Then again, maybe he's just repeating what he reads on Marketwatch.
Bespoke - utilities drag down industrial production. Which is funny, cos the market has been buying the utilities like crazy.
Bespoke - jobless claims at 7-year low. That's really good for consumer stocks, isn't it? Then again, it's also a harbinger of inflation, according to a swarthy gentleman whose name rhymes with "Splichael Splaoul".
Bespoke - bullish sentiment increases. But it increases from a very low level to a slightly less very low level. Here, look at this:
Is that nuts or what? Literally, a short period of a few months of sideways chop has resulted in, or been driven by, profoundly negative AAII readings. The last time sentiment was this bad, Europe was about to collapse into a pile of rubble. Supposedly. It didn't after all, but... you get it, right?
IKN - why does everybody hate Rio Alto? Hey, I haven't looked at the hole locations, but adding 2 years to oxide production is a great way to ensure Rio can pay for its stage 2. And the nagging doubt about having the money for stage 2 is the reason Rio's at $2 instead of $4. So quit hating Rio Alto Mining, you meanies!
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Oh, internet, internet. You are so interesting.
One reason I blog is just to see what the hell the internet itself is interested in, and thus all the blog stats posts.
And this one is interesting to me:
OK, that's the five most popular posts of the week.
IKN plugged my flame of CEO technician, that's why that's there.
The Friday video? Meh, I dunno, maybe there are Luscious Jackson fans out there who haven't heard of YouTube.
But the 2nd most popular post this week is some bit of cruft I wrote over a year ago about gold, with a link to a USGS report. Why? Is the internet interested in the idea of peak gold all of a sudden?
Was busy today, here's news:
Ritholtz - on bullish and bearish views. Basically summing up each position sort of. All of them are stupid, so just ignore them.
Ciovacco Capital - what is Dow Theory telling you now, bitch? It's telling you what I already pointed out something like 2 days ago.
Bloomberg Radio - Michael Shaoul interview (mp3). Get this - Shaoul is very bullish commodities, and is predicting a ramp-up of inflation in the US as the Fed responds to "phantom slack" with excess looseness. Add a to b, and the result is he must be bullish gold, right?
FT Alphaville - what if Modi's a tease? Again, he can't single-handedly turn around India, especially not in the space of weeks, so the Nifty 50 is grossly overpriced. Not only that, foreign positions in Indian equities are grossly overextended.
Reuters - In China, receivables and collection times are popping. Maybe China's economy is already beginning to seize up? It bears watching, anyway.
Mining.com - blah blah Euro money printing. Yeah, but that doesn't matter to the gold price because only US money printing matters, right?
Gold Report - John Kaiser interview. He thinks the secular bear in commods goes to 2017, but things get better after that.
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
Been poking through the Krugman blog this afternoon. It seems that here at work we must have a sub to the NYT website because it's not blocking me; actually, there are hundreds of employees surfing thru our portal, so it must be the case.
Anyway, here's some Kruggie gold:
Paul Krugman - Unbalanced in Basel. Quote:
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard draws our attention to a speech by Jaime Caruana, General Manager of the Bank for International Settlements. It is indeed a quite remarkable speech — and I mean that in the worst way; it’s a perfect illustration of the way permahawks keep finding new arguments for their never-changing demand that we raise interest rates now now now.Of course it does. Because that's what the ruling class demands - a higher rate of rent on their inherited, unearned wealth. What's funny is how many bloggers get sucked into the right-wing echo chamber narrative to the point where they demand a higher rate of interest for "poor little grannies" - and then they protest against me labelling them neo-con dog-whistling propagandists.
Some background: the BIS has spent almost the whole period since the financial crisis struck calling for tighter money. Oddly, however, it keeps changing its justifications for that call. At first it was dire warnings of inflation just around the corner. Then it was financial instability. Now, with low inflation and possible deflation a growing concern, Mr. Caruana argues that (a) deflation is not so bad (b) we’re in a balance sheet slump, and that means loose money is bad.
Right now it looks as if the BIS is claiming that balance sheets make the case for tight money because in Basel everything makes the case for tight money.
The Krugginator - Eurozone fiscal myths. Here again he addresses the American neo-con Republican narrative of European "fiscal irresponsibility", because whenever anyone's addressed it before the brainwashed masses just plug their ears and go "la la la! can't hear you!":
But even Yglesias is somewhat taken in by the intense propaganda that portrays the crisis as mainly fiscal. Namely, he says that the coming of the euro, and the resulting low borrowing costs, led to “irresponsible budgeting” in Italy.No, don't blame bad reporting; blame idiots who hear a story and swallow it entirely without bothering to check the data, or idiots who are happy to believe any old crap that perpetuates their racist opinion of "lazy Mediterranean socialists".
Sorry, but no (and when it comes to almost any fiscal issue, you always, always want to check the numbers yourself, not rely on what all the reporting seems to say.) Italy’s high debt is a legacy of policies long ago:
The country’s debt position actually improved during the euro boom years, and only worsened again recently thanks to the economic crisis.
In reality, here is the full list of countries for whom a fiscal irresponsibility story of the euro crisis makes any sense at all:
The truth is that Spain and Ireland were models of fiscal responsibility from 2000 to 2007, or so it seemed, and Italy wasn’t too bad. If you imagine otherwise, if you think you’ve heard that fiscal irresponsibility was more widespread than that, blame bad reporting.
Just for fun I googled the phrase "you won't believe what happened next", and found the following headlines (links not included to save you the temptation of clicking through):
- The Spencers went to the Galápagos this spring, and you won't believe what happened next
- A man stole this woman's wallet, and you won't believe what happened next
- A cat climbed into a horse stall and you won't believe what happened next
- LSU's Zach Mettenberger picked his nose and you won't believe what happened next
- These people got pulled over... but you won't believe what happened next!
- These 11 people watched Split - you won't believe what happened next!
- Some people extrapolated from monkey brains to human brains. You won't believe what happened next.
- Drunk lawyer hits on cabbie. You won't believe what happened next!
- Prince swears off cursing: you won't believe what happened next
- Photographer gets too close to a predator, you won't believe what happened next
I think we should try to start a fad of appending every single sentence with "and you won't believe what happened next!"
Here are some newsitems:
BI - S&P passes 1900 for first time in ever. I like putting the boots in at BI, but really Mamta Badkar and Sam Ro are very much worth following. Here Sam explains what all the goldbug doomers are too ignorant to have a clue about:
"We anticipate GDP growth to broaden in 2014 and this implies that growth will be less scarce in terms of companies achieving better revenue profiles," predicted JP Morgan's Tom Lee back in December. "Hence, investors will likely be less willing to chase traditional growth stocks and “unit growth” stories."Good work Sam! Now quit that rag BI and get yourself a real job.
You see, since the financial crisis, revenue growth prospects have broadly been pretty anemic due to uncertainty and weak economic growth. Investors seeking growth had been to turn to secular growth (that is, businesses that grow regardless of economic conditions) like the social media stocks.
But with economic prospects improving, growth has broadened. In other words, growth companies like the social media stocks aren't the only growth plays in town. This is what Lee meant when he said that "growth will be less scarce."
Bespoke - small-business optimism hits six year high. And if you can please that bunch of ignorant right-wing losers then you've got a great economy. Especially heartening is how 24% are now finding jobs "hard to fill". This means the days of screwing over labour are past.
Calculated Risk - April retail sales. Below consensus, but March was revised upward.
BI - Dogecoin hacked: here's what you need to know. Ha ha! Dogecoin also sucks! That's what you need to know! God luck, Raoul Pal! Good luck, Jeff Berwick! Ha ha! You guys totally suck. Losers!
Gawker - here's what happens to Ann Coulter when she goes somewhere that people can talk back. She made the mistake of showing up on Twitter, and now an army of millions is making her pay the price.
There are some especially funny pics in the fark thread, but I think I'm wiser to post them after I'm home from work.
So I look at my blog stats, and realize what my blog has become:
Yup. The internet comes to my blog for the underpanties, and they stay for the... underpanties.
BTW, AFAIK there are no pictures of Daniela Cambone in a bikini anywhere on the internet: she probably has more class than that, being a serious journalist and all. Though if there were such pictures I'm sure someone would already be emailing me the link.
I do have a pic of Brent Cook on the beach posing in a t-shirt and shorts though. If, y'know, you're into that sort of thing. NTTAWWT, YKINMK, IYKWIMAITYD.
Because the rest of the world is boring, what with PMs going nowhere and the US markets resuming their relentless upward trajectory, I'll give you some different newsbits:
xkcd - pyramid energy. This week, Randall Munroe calculated that the biggest pyramid stores about a trillion joules of gravitational potential energy. But then he notes the world's biggest mines involve 100 to 1000 times as much energy in excavation.
That's neat in itself, but then he links to this:
los Apos - the world's biggest, deepest, and deadliest open-pit mines. With some pictures of the world's biggest, etc., mines, and the cool toy trucks they get to play with.
and then there's also this:
Mining Technology - ten deepest open-pit mines. Unfortunately the pictures are small, because the guys running this website don't like posting pretty pictures or something.
Speaking of which, the PDAC should get together with Tonka and sponsor a line of realistic mining equipment toy trucks. That is, if they want to encourage children to grow up to work in mining.
And bam!, everything resolves to the upside.
$INDU is >2SD up this morning.
The S&P 500 is also popping up strongly.
And transports are WAY above 2SD up.
And as of today the market is really extremely not into buying downside protection, to the point of being really obnoxious about it.
I guess you could be forgiven for expecting the US market to move back downward from this point right now. This is too much of a move.
Then again, in bull markets people are bullish, right? And what would you expect a breakout to look like after 4 months of top-calling, doomery, and rationalizing of fear?
I'm just happy that all the spineless wimps and permadoomers are cleaning egg off their faces this morning.
CEO.ca - a market on the brink!!!1! Here's what he said:
Never before have there been so many warning signs of an impending market decline while the senior equity indices remained within 2% of all-time highs.I guess the rotation out of tech spec stocks and the transports upside breakout were only so many warning signs of an impending market decline for this guy. Because he probably doesn't read much outside of the goldbug sphere.
Here's his hilarious chart with arbitrary silly TA lines drawn on it:
And by the title of this post from May 8th ("a market on the brink"), as well as the title of his post from May 10 ("diamond top for the S&P?") you can surmise that this clown was predicting a market top.
Oh there's also these other posts:
May 6 - how long can energy hold up the market?
April 14 - this chart is flashing a red light for the stock market.
April 7 - the market is sending ominous signals.
And I don't even want to go into all his embarrassing "gold is at an inflection point" and "gold is set up for a strong move higher" posts. That's for later.
Well? How's your "diamond top" formation resolving itself, just two days later?
Broken to the upside. There's yet another top call ground into the dust, forgotten by all. A whole month of dooming, wasted.
Oh and by the way: SPY isn't the index. $SPX is the index. SPY is an ETF and doesn't track $SPX exactly. Here's your proof:
I guess Tommy Hump has to keep posting this silly, amateurish, always-wrong patter on his website, since he probably feels his job is to get people the hell out of the S&P 500 and into the gold stocks.
But dammit man, this "technician" fellow has become Raoul Pal level embarrassing. How long are you going to keep posting stuff from a guy who's always wrong, every single day?
Maybe later today I'll post a summary of his last few months of gold TA.
UPDATE: it was a guaranteed slam-dunk, the only question was how long it'd take IKN to plug this post.
Found a fun article last night:
American Reader - author writes an article on clickbait: you won't believe what happens next! Can you guess how long it takes for the article to mention Business Insider?
Monday, May 12, 2014
My god these charts put me to sleep:
The market is saying BTG is fairly priced at exactly the average price over the last 50 days.
The market is also saying it's bored to tears with Rio Alto.
Seriously. 10% vol in 2 different miners over the past month? When have you ever seen that before?
Here's a weekly candle look at $VIX:
Heck of a big drop to start the week, eh? A little too much, eh?
I guess you'd expect a pullback in the US markets with a $VIX drop of this size to start the week.
Then again, maybe something different happens, and we get a drop to a $VIX of 10 as everyone goes uber-bullish for years on end? It's happened before:
Then again, maybe it's silly to assume today is going to be the day that we all start to fart rainbows.
I thought if we ever finally get this supposed rebound in gold & its miners, that I might try playing warrants on the upmove.
Problem is, so many available traded warrants are at joke prices now. Example: Kinross $21.30 strike for Sep 2014. Another example: Gran Colombia at $65 strike for Aug 2015.
Even Franco Nevada at $22 below strike doesn't interest me. I don't want to play below strike and I don't want to pay a time premium on a joke.
Fact is, the whole warrant scene sure looks to have been killed real bad by these past few years of down markets and nonexistent financings.
In any case, warrants are a mug's game and you can really lose your shirt, so I'm not that interested. Still, here are two that I found interesting:
DPM is a Nov 2015 $3.25 strike, and the stock flies in either direction like a bat out of hell as you can see in this chart. I have no idea if they're in dire straits right now, but I'd read up on them if we ever got another bull that gave DPM the chance to pop. My problem with it is paying 90 cents for the time, when a strong move in DPM can give you a great profit on the stock itself.
I have utterly no idea about who Torex Gold are. I think IKN made fun of them once or twice? But, they have an Aug 2014 $1.50 strike (not very far from the money) that's apparently selling for 4 cents right now. Question is, would they even be able to break $1.50 by August? Not knowing anything about this company at all, I can't even provide an answer to that question.
Note in all these cases, not only am I not suggesting anyone buy warrants, I'll go one step further and call you a loser for even thinking about it.
But I thought it would be interesting to illustrate how little there really is left in the miner warrants market. These really are among the 3-4 best offers you'd find right now. Pretty unexciting.
More news, including why Josh Brown is a pussy:
Bespoke - more bears than bulls for 3rd week in a row. And yet we've seen breakouts in industrials and transports? Dammit man, you guys are all a bunch of frickin' sissies. Quit listening to those doomers Ritholtz & Fatty and buy the damn S&P 500 already. Mila Kunis got it right years ago.
Anatole Kaletsky - no reason to be a pussy. Sell in May worked for the past three years, except it didn't if you didn't buy back at the bottom, which you wouldn't have, and in any case when something's been a predictable success 3 years in a row you should probably expect the opposite the next year.
Bloomberg - Xi says China must adapt to slower growth. Pretty sensible, since once you get to a certain size it's hard to keep up stellar growth rates.
Reuters - new Indian government will have to wrestle with weak output, inflation. Oh and also the failure of the monsoon this year. Which is why any Modi victory news is a fantastic fade opp; you don't turn India on a dime, and you don't turn output and inflation on a dime either. Especially not in an EM secular bear background.
Mining.com - karate kid markets. An interesting bit of seemingly honest and informed market analysis from a guy with a free subscription service. It's interesting because it's seemingly honest and informed.
Splain to me how Transports making a new high means the US economy is slowing down. Cos I think it really means the US economy is transporting more and more things.
IKN - today's gold chart. Where he says this:
IKN clearly states the same message stated over the last few weeks: We are at the start of a bull market in gold, it's not going to collapse, get used to the idea. The only question you have is to decide when to get long gold and make money for yourself, now for the serious cash or later when the bullish direction is more defined and there's still plenty of profits to be made.And this:
you seriously believe the bullshit GS is spinning about gold going to $1050? Wanna buy a bridge, n00b?All this while the traditional goldbug brigade has been cowed into hemming and hawing, offering at best tepid and multivalent prognostications for the gold price, more often pathetic TA-tinged blather about "gold will go up if it goes up to $1320, but if it doesn't then it will go sideways or down before going up, unless it doesn't, but we've definitely seen a bottom in the gold price unless we haven't, and we can be sure of this unless we can't (look at the pretty lines I've drawn on this chart and you'll know I'm right, at least til I'm proven wrong next week by which point you'll have forgotten)."
Goldbugs, meet your new cheerleader-in-chief, IncaKola News. Marvel at his iron-clad prediction. Watch as he single-handedly slays the Vampire Squid from his mountain lair in the Andes.
Alternatively, watch his blog suspiciously go silent at some indeterminate point in the near future, upon which you'll know that Goldman Sachs' vengeful reach extends throughout the entire blogoverse. Heck, I might have finked on him already for 30 pieces of silver.
Yeah, slow day.
Sunday, May 11, 2014
BBC News - is there such a thing as feminist pornography? Here's your answer:
Meanwhile, over at the BBC, who are obviously so into combating prejudice:
BBC News - making maple syrup in Canada. Where we are overwhelmed with the amount of patriarchal, colonialist stereotyping and prejudice:
Faucher is the owner of what Canadians call a "sugar shack" where maple syrup is made.Uh, no. Most of us haven't heard of the term "sugar shack". That is what it's called, sure, but most of us think it's called a "industrial corn syrup production facility in fucking Mississippi where they make pure sucrose and put brown food colouring in it.".
In the spring, Canadians traditionally get themselves down to the nearest one to gorge on high calorie, artery-clogging fare.Uh, no, we don't. In the spring, most Canadians watch the Leafs choke out of the playoffs, and then start watching the Jays suck. Most of use live hundreds of miles from maple syrup farms. And it does not clog the arteries - it's sucrose for fuck's sake. Your filthy British food clogs arteries.
Meatballs, sausages, beans, pies, bacon are all slathered in maple syrup - like a reward for getting through the harsh winter.The fuck? Really, they are? We do this? Is that what you think? This isn't fucking Glasgow where we put "fookin' grevvy" on everything, y'know.
In summary, I am offended by the rank colonialist ignorance of British fuckers.
BBC - Nearly 90% of voters eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk back "self-rule" in referendum, according to local self-proclaimed election commission.
Now we get to see how wimpy the EU truly are.
at 5:51 PM
Here's some stuff to read:
Bonddad - weekly indicators. Everything looks fine, though he's grossly worried about 2015. Because he's a pussy.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - nothing is happening. Among other things, Jeremy Siegel is putting the small cap underperformance down to "mean reversion".
Ritholtz - pay attention to what motivates commentary. In the case of doomer bullshit, they're not even trying to read the market right; they're only interested in getting you to vote Republican.
Reuters - what if Modi falls short? He's actually unlikely to be able to form a majority, so be prepared for a possible fall in gold, among other things.