Friday, May 9, 2014
Been busy doing other things, so no news for now, sorry.
But I came across an interesting paper:
International Dark-Sky Association - visibility, environmental, and astronomical issues associated with blue-rich white outdoor lighting (pdf).
Seems blue light can be hazardous. And thus it might not be a good idea for highway authorities to switch from HPS to LED just yet.
Here's Luscious Jackson with "Daughters of the Kaos", which proves they had come up with the right idea way the hell back in 1992.
It's almost like they invented trip-hop two years before Massive Attack.
Really, nothing was like this back then.
Thursday, May 8, 2014
I found a chart of aggregate global wealth:
1. It's from Credit Suisse.
2. via Zerohedge.
3. I want a data series going back at least to 1980.
I also want it explicitly to say "in constant dollars".
Because I'm interested in matching this data series against that for the gold price.
IKN's a total Cristina fanboi, as evidenced by this chart he recently posted:
Which is funny considering he labels 2003 "Kirchner govt began", when he could have also labelled it "China-driven secular EM bull began".
Anyway, I'm searching the net for a chart of total worldwide net wealth over time (in a discussion with Mr. Frisby, I wondered whether the "real" price of gold should just be a function of total worldwide net wealth divided by supply).
And I stumbled across this:
Seems the Kirchners have seen their own well-being develop quite well.
Again, r>g, no exceptions.
Oh, so it's threatening to break out, is it now?
Oh, so transports are confirming the breakout?
Keep it simple and for the love of Christ quit asking TWTR and TSLA how the US economy is doing.
I have a number of small things:
Bespoke - no dividends? big problems. Apparently, this most recent market reallocation has gone in favour of dividend-paying stocks. R1K stocks in the top 30% for dividends have gone up an average of 2%, while the 30% of R1Ks that pay no dividend are down 7%. Actually... Treasury yields have gone down too, no? If so, that tells a kind of story, no? One of people rotating out of bullshit and into solid stocks, no?
Bespoke - stock yields versus Treasury yields. The aggregate S&P 500 yield is 1.96%. Should that be higher? Then again, if you buy the S&P you're buying capital gains, while if you trade USTs you expect a capital loss over the next few years, no?
Calculated Risk - initial claims decrease. So everything is still not collapsing!
Bloomberg - again with the hope of China saving the mining industry through M&A. Well, at least someone still wants these crappy companies.
FT beyond brics - Pooty-Poot's tightening of the screws. Russia's sliding back into authoritarianism:
At a recent conference in Moscow, participants – most of them activists, regional-level politicians, journalists and academics from across the country – told of civic organisations threatened with closure, alternative media outlets being shut down and professors threatened with the sack. Speakers made presentations about the failing state of Russia’s economy, the rise of nationalism and the demographic crisis facing the population.Oh goodie. Of course, there's a limit to Russia's power: its intellectual class has already fled, births are below replacement levels, the population that's still there is weak due to endemic tuberculosis, alcoholism and AIDS, and Russia's hit the limit of how much oil and natgas can prop up their economy. So how much do we have to worry about Russia in the future?
One man – a sociologist from St Petersburg – said things had got to the point where people would happily inform on their friends and neighbours, if only they had the option. Someone else chimed in that people are already doing so, using online forums.
For Russians who are better-informed and critical of the regime, repression will increase. Alternative media sources will continue to be shut down and the slightest sign of dissent – in a local paper, on a blog, in a Facebook post – will be immediately removed and punished. The crackdown on freedom on the internet will continue. Opposition politicians and activists will continue to be hassled and harangued.So, it'll turn into Hoxha's Albania. Strong enough to still provide some financial support to anti-Western agitprop sites like ZeroHedge or Russia Today, but weak enough to do little more than pull a Kim Jong Un every few years.
For the less well-informed and less interested sections of the population the Kremlin will ramp up its propaganda machine. State television channels and the mainstream media will present an ever-more radical vision of reality. Any people or groups that present or represent a different view will be summarily besmirched or shouted down. Already today, Ukrainians fighting for an independent Ukraine are worse than fascists, while the West is a place where paedophilia is taught in schools.
Despite the braying of the doomers with their NASDAQ head and shoulders blather, the S&P 500 is doing this:
This thing still doesn't really know if it wants to challenge all-time highs or not. But at least it's printing higher lows every time it gets close, right?
Note I've come across some posts last night about people complaining that the S&P 500 is losing breadth, so yeah that's bad internals. Then again, maybe over the past few years people have been buying any old crap, and this present pullback hasn't been just people piling out of earningless social media stocks, but also piling out of any old crap that they bought?
You'd think that once you get this far into a recovery, people are going to realize it's not just about getting out of the big hole of 2008, but also whether companies make money.
Wednesday, May 7, 2014
And whatever happened to Adrian Day?
He's chatting with Jeff Berwick about libertopianism.
Tangentially, Adrian Day graduated with honours from the London School of Economics.
With a history degree, according to his linkedin.
Why did the chicken cross the road?
To uncover the massive silver conspiracy!
So I hadn't heard anything from Mickey Fulp either. I was signed up for his blurbs, mostly for his "let's go through the elements one at a time" interviews, but hadn't gotten anything from him in forever.
Turns out my gmail spam filter was grabbing his emails. Fixed now hopefully. I look forward to his upcoming ten-minute feature on praseodymium!
Anyway, here's Mickey Fulp, on the subject of the TSX-V's latest fad, medical marijuana:
Mickey Fulp - my bet is the bud biz is a bitty bubble (pdf). I see, with the junior scene having gone quiet as the grave, that Mickey's taken up a new hobby: alliteration. And funny nuff, he tangentially admits graphite was just a fad. Stupid Flinders Resources!
Small Cap Power - Mickey Fulp on "a day trader's doped up daydream". Again with the alliteration. I guess if you want the Kaiser Extinction to happen, it's better that it happens this way, with the obviously corrupt companies leaving the exploration world for medical marijuana, right?
Meanwhile, by the way, Cookie Monster sent me a video of a really bad band playing a bad song badly:
They indeed are the worst band ever and I now hate music because of them. Gee thanks Brent.
Wondering what's up with all the junior mining anal ysts out there - seems Our Daniela has nothing to do anymore but interview Peter Hug every day.
So I went poking around on YouBoob, and eventually came across Dominic Frisby doing stand-up comedy:
BTW, Dominator, it's pronounced "tha fookin' Marrs barrs innae' ga' bu'uh!"
There's more over there, so go watch some Dominic Frisby stand-up comedy. For example, there's also a video of Dominic Frisby chatting amicably with Russian stooge Max Keiser on the Vladimir Putin anti-west propaganda channel:
This is much more hilarious, right up there with the best of Jeremy Clarkson.
Here's some stuff:
BI - Jim Cramer believes in supply and demand. He says the Alibaba IPO is sucking a bunch of money out of the tech stock world, because there's only so much money to go around in the growth universe. That's quite plausible.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the dotcoms are tanking. What, cos everyone wants to take those profits and plow them into Alibaba? Is that it?
Bespoke - R2K closes below 200DMA. Looks like maybe we get a bit of a correction over the next few days. Then again, the $VIX isn't doing anything interesting yet.
BI - Janet Yellen says "OMGWEALLGONNADIE". I don't get how she doesn't see the same economic improvement that NDD and Bill McBride see. And a certain swarthy fund manager fellow (whose name rhymes with "Blichael Blaoul") says the Fed is grossly underestimating the strength of the recovery, and the US is going to experience an inflation situation soon.
Now if only there was some sort of... y'know... yellow metal, or something, that you could buy to protect against inflation....
FT Alphaville - more on the looming China collapse. Oh noes! Last chance for the Chinese government to hand another trillion in stimulus to the local oligarchs!
Krebs on Security - tools for a safer PC. I'd append that instead of using OpenDNS, you can just edit your hosts.txt to block access to dangerous sites. Someone Who Cares has a hosts file you can use to edit your own. Warning: you really need to understand what you're doing. If you do, this is a great security tool. Other than that, do mostly what Krebs says (I cannot vouch for EMET and will stay away from that fucking disaster zone).
The added benefit is that if you use NoScript, I won't see you in my blog stats and thus will not make fun of your company. Neither will IKN see you reading his blog.
Tuesday, May 6, 2014
Here's your morning news:
Calculated Risk - pace of construction hiring increasing. Just like he said it would.
FT Alphaville - Nomura on China property. Tell me though: how long has Nomura been beating this drum?
FT beyond brics - India elections, a festival of vote buying. Just ask an Indian what their elections are like.
Reuters - rising bad loans threaten India's recovery. Um... bad loans in an emerging market? Hey, where have I heard this before? Y'know, it's almost as if we're seeing the beginning of a secular bear market in EMs!
FT beyond brics - are Indian labour reforms possible? That's a strange problem to fixate on, Mr. Crabtree, when the vast majority of Indians are still subsistence farmers.
Mineweb - Murenbeeld says gold around $1300 forever. Funny how an analyst predicts gold to stay at the same price after it's spent a couple weeks staying at the same price, eh? Similar to how he thinks the EM economies will continue growing. I do agree with his statement about "bedrock holdings" though.
Economist - Piketty's Capital in four paragraphs. I'll do it in five words plus an inequation: if r>g, the rich get richer.
Monday, May 5, 2014
Some evening news:
BI - loan officers opinion survey. According to Liz Ann Sonders, this is the big giveaway that the US economy might begin to improve further.
New Deal Demoncrat - more on high-paying and low-paying jobs in recoveries. Low-paying jobs recover immediately, while the recovery in higher-paying jobs has quite a big lag in every recovery.
Reuters - Dubai builds new gold refinery. Money shot:
Kaloti's new refinery will have an annual capacity of 1,400 tonnes of gold and 600 tonnes of silver, making it more than three times the size of any of the UAE's current refineries.So I guess he feels that over the long term, the size of the gold trade in Asia will continue to increase. It's not a price bet, but it's similar.
The project is a bet that gold demand in Asia will grow strongly in coming years. That cannot be guaranteed; last year India, seeking to cut its current account deficit, imposed a record 10 percent import duty on the metal.
Global gold demand shrank 15 percent to 3,756 tonnes last year, according to the World Gold Council, an industry body.
But Munir al-Kaloti, president and founder of Kaloti, said he saw little risk of a long-term interruption to growth that has seen the firm's precious metals output and physical trading grow at average annual rates of 25-35 percent since it was set up 25 years ago, to over $30 billion in 2012.
"This isn't just about Dubai. It's about a trend that is bigger," Kaloti said at his offices on the 35th floor of a skyscraper, the new refinery's site visible in the distance.
I'm a bit busy cleaning up a job at work, but the real reason I've got little news for you is that there's little worth talking about.
So here's two links:
New Deal Demoncrat - foaming at the mouth over the real unemployment rate. I like when NDD gets angry about statistics. It always results in lots of informative charts.
FT beyond brics - the anatomy of the Chinese slowdown. Some wacky facts and figures in this: for example, did you know Hebei alone produces more steel than the 27 countries of the EU combined? And did you know that Shanxi produces more coal than the entire USA?
Also, supposing China's economy really is deflating and they really are in danger of falling into a technical recession, and their government knows this, then here's that silver bullet everyone just might be waiting for:
“We believe the downside risk to China’s economic growth is rising,” said Shen Jianguang, economist at Mizuho Securities. “As a result, the government will launch more effective stimulus measures soon to curb the downturn.”I'm not betting it happens, I'm just going to watch the charts.
He said these measures could include more reform-themed fiscal stimulus spending on nuclear power stations, affordable housing and subways, as well as monetary easing to compensate for the tightening from shadow-banking consolidation. This could include a cut in the bank required reserve ratios (RRR), which oblige commercial banks to keep a significant portion of their deposits “frozen” at the central bank. Lastly, Shen says, new urbanisation spending may be authorised, particularly around the theme of building a Beijing-Tianjin metropolis.
Here's the GLD weekly candles:
So look at the right side of the chart. Here's what I find interesting:
1. there was a pop from December to March. This took GLD over the 50-week SMA, which is good.
2. the pop failed, and the price dropped back down; but it only fell as low as the Bollinger mean. It fell intraweek below the mean a few times, but always ended the week back above it. During all this time, the price basically consolidates between the Bollinger mean and the bottom of the SMA(50), almost as if gold was trying to build strength for another pop. This despite selling outnumbering buying in this period.
3. the triangle between the Bollinger mean and SMA(50) is closing off this week (only $1.04 separates the two), and with room running out, gold has decided to pop above the SMA(50).
I have no reason to like gold, because India may have a weak monsoon this year and China might be running into debt trouble, and that's where gold is bought.
Then again, if some retail clown like me knows this, the rest of the market already knows it.
So really, I have no reason to like gold, except the chart suggests that the rest of the market might start liking it soon.
After all, it's not like supply and demand are the sole determinants of commodity prices, is it?
Not really into buying much right now, but darn it all this chart makes me want to pay attention.
Again, here's GLD and SLV, and in case you don't get it when I say "this chart looks interesting" I usually mean look at the last one or two candles:
Caveats: GLD still hasn't retaken its SMA(50), and it has headfaked up before, and blah blah Ukraine. So this move might be nothing.
But still, the pop is interesting. Maybe it's just because the USD is at a low and threatening to drop below its recent trading band, so various Wall Street Whiteys are going long gold in the mistaken idea that gold has anything to do with the US dollar.
It'd be nice if we could whittle down those theories, and that's why I tend to look at silver in conjunction with gold.
So here's SLV:
The support headfake on Thursday was wiped out rather strongly by Friday's action, and now here's SLV retaking its EMA(16).
What's important here is that (unless you're a real tard) you don't buy silver in expectation of war. Silver's an industrial metal, Wall Street Whitey knows this, and only trailer park trash think silver is a precious metal to be stockpiled for when the aliens attack.
So to me, this move seems to disprove the idea that the PMs are up on Ukraine fears.
Unless Wall Street silver traders are idiots, of course.
Basically, I'll watch and wait for now.
Meanwhile, here are the words of the immortal messiah, George Carlin: