Saturday, March 1, 2014

Permashave Dave asks a pertinent question of Keith Neumeyer: "what is this I don't even"


PS Dave - what is this I don't even. Wherein PS Dave asks: remind us again, is First Majestic a silver mining company?

Why does First Majestic own March 2014 silver calls?



I mean, it's all fun playing options, pretending you know what a commodity's price is going to do months into the future; we all love playing at the casino.

But... um... that there money is the shareholders' property, guys. Does management have any sort of fiduciary responsibility? I mean, does the typical CEO take all his corporation's money, put it in a big pile, and then just set it on fire?

Not only that, why the fuck does First Majestic own shares in Sprott's PSLV?


Did they happen to buy PSLV at a massive premium, where it normally trades? Have they thought about instead following the traditional strategy of mining silver at (hopefully) a discount to its market price, and then selling it for a profit? Is that too faggy for Keith Neumeyer? He'd rather go buy silver at a premium to spot?

Couldn't he have perhaps drawn the line at buying SLV, and buying it at its spot price?

And what's he going to do with the silver that he's bought from Sprott, anyway? Isn't silver supposed to go out the door at a silver mine? Is First Majestic now a mutual fund?

And are they concerned about Sprott himself having gotten demoted to cheerleader?

You've got to wonder what the fuck management thinks they're doing. The directors obviously think they're fucking geniuses, since as PS Dave notes they've given themselves a $300K raise for successfully directing the burning of $55M in cash.

As for the FM shareholder?

Here is what the shareholder looks like, in the eyes of First Majestic management:


Remember that when you visit FM's booth at PDAC tomorrow.


Yet more blog stats fun


I checked the stats to see if my bombshell PDAC announcement made even a ripple in the scum-covered midden that is the internet, and saw this:


Here are your answers:

1. I'm not sure, but the name "Dick Fondling" certainly sounds like a Republican state representative from somewhere. Arizona probably.

2. Jesus H Christ on a popsicle stick, coated in high-fructose corn syrup and being eaten alive by ants, have you not heard of Google? Michael Sadler was born Jun 3, 1780, making him 234 years old. Thus all the sagas written about him. Careful where you step!

3. If you have to ask what to wear at PDAC, student, then you probably shouldn't go. But here's my opinion:

a. if you're a female student, probably a tight black minidress. Show a hell of a lot of leg. No pantyline. Wear something off the shoulder for extra bonus points. You don't want to go into geology, girlie, you want to get a job as a personal assistant to the CFO. But you might need to work your way up from IR, so it's good to show your whore side.

b. if you're a male student, something to show how fucking blockheaded you are to get into that career. A howling wolves jacket would work, maybe with a Labatt Blue t-shirt and Molson trackpants. Wear some comfy workboots to show them you like being outdoors dropping rocks on your feet.

Basically, you're going to be surrounded by fascist investment banking cunts in Banker Blues and tailored suits, and you almost certainly want to avoid being mistaken for one of them. But you also don't want to be mistaken for an investor clown; so avoid wearing CADPAT, khakis, or any sort of slogan t-shirt.

Oh and shave and get a haircut and bathe, or people will start offering you 5-cent private placements.


Quick news: not going to PDAC


Sorry all, but I got offered a turkey dinner to not go to PDAC on Sunday.

I have my priorities straight, unlike you dumbasses, so I guess you'll have to get your newsletter writers' reviews from someone else.

Be sure to heckle these clowns and keep them honest!

I'm sure Daniela Cambone and Vanessa Collette will interview the guys worth interviewing, but if they're not sure, here's the list to remind them:

John Kaiser
Lawrence Roulston
The Cookie Monster
Eric Coffin
and Pierre Lassonde


Friday, February 28, 2014

News: I like to box. How I like to box! So, every day, I box a Gox. In yellow socks I box my Gox. I box in yellow Gox box socks.


So apparently while I was out shopping, Russia declared war on the Ukraine and killed everyone in a nuclear holocaust. So everyone puked the S&P 500 until they realized the S&P 500 doesn't have any Ukrainian companies.

So here's the last few newsbits of the day:

BI - Q4 GDP revised down. Yawn.

Bespoke - S&P 500 all-time closing high. What's that old saying? "But it is what it is"? Hm. What do you think "but it is what it is" means in the context of yet another new alltime high in the S&P 500? Maybe you should ask Soviet stooge Max Keiser, permadoom fiction author James Kunstler, or some Elliot Wave charlatan to interpret this chart for you? Because obviously the answer is not in the chart, right? The chart is not the chart, and another new alltime high in the S&P 500 must be a portent of imminent doom, no? Because it isn't what it is, right?

FT Alphaville - PBoC says the beatings will continue until morale degrades. I like these guys more and more.

FT beyond brics - India versus Vodafone, continued. This is part of what Jim O'Neill is referring to when he says "all these EMs have to do is stop acting like bloody idiots".

BI - MtGox CEO admits the bitcoins are all gone. What a fantastic thing this new cryptocurrency is! You can apparently get it all stolen from you! Wow, you really sold me on it now!

Ritholtz - Elon Musk - visionary or rent-seeker? As an aside, my general theory of secular bull and secular bear markets is that a secular bear is where rent-seeking (and other forms of corruption) conquers productive endeavour.

Friday news


Was busy yesterday, but it's not like there was a lot of news anyway.

Here's some of today's news for your consideration, or not:

Bespoke - another decline in bullish sentiment. Seems like the perfect time to buy into the S&P, if you consider yourself a smartass contrarian. Not the perfect time to be short.

Ritholtz - Buffett's favourite indicator is worthless as a buy/sell signal. The "market cap as % of nominal GDP" chart should be worthless. Because how the hell does US national GDP have anything to do with the market cap of multinationals? This ratio should have been steadily increasing over the past 20 years as US-traded businesses extended their dominance over the world. Yet another case of a chart not measuring what you think it's measuring; yet another case of the variable changing over time.

Value Walk - world radar screen favours financials and Japan. I just don't see the Japan bullishness in the chart. I'm just giving you this in case you're interested. Personally, and with utter ignorance on the topic, I can see US financials outperforming the next few months.

Gavyn Davies - ECB must face deflation risk. Apparently, worrying about secular deflation in the ECU is now a thing. Just putting this out there for you.

FT Alphaville - QE in the ECU? More on the same. I guess a lot of people now have expectations of QE in the ECU. Unfortunately they must have forgotten that Germany doesn't believe in QE for anyone except themselves.

FT beyond brics - Putin is not about to give up on the Ukraine. Presented to you because this guy actually knows his stuff about the political realities, unlike the fearmongers in the lamestream media. There's no imminent nuclear war, people.

Bloomberg - China crisis gauge rises to record high. I'll worry once we see collateral liquidation. Still, putting that out there for you China dooooom watchers.

Ritholtz - do China's risk signals point to a meltdown? I'm not giving you this link because of some misguided belief that Ritholtz knows his ass from a hole in the ground when it comes to China; he doesn't. I'm giving you this article so you can see how the best of America's ignorant traders are interpreting the dooooom du jour.

Bloomberg - PBOC stokes volatility. It's graduated from speculation to fact now: the PBOC saw a one-way trade that was causing appreciation of the yuan, so they smacked the fuckers down. Frankly I like that sort of leadership. How very Irish of them.

Reuters - Hebei Iron & Steel says steel capacity expansion is continuing. This can't possibly end well.

Mineweb - GLD sees first monthly inflow in over a year. Just in time for PDAC and the spring lull in physical gold buying, Whitey! Man, that's perfect timing! You wonder why I mock these people?


Friday videos - The Scientists' "Solid Gold Hell"


In anticipation of PDAC this weekend, here's Scientists with "Solid Gold Hell":



Pretty amazing when you can find videos of an Australian garage band from 1984.

Personally, I liked these guys way the hell a lot more than Spacemen 3.

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

Article on Simon Black, Jeff Berwick, and Galt's Various Gulches Chile


Mother Jones - libertarians plan to sit out the coming collapse of America, in Chile. Fun article on Simon Black and Jeff Berwick (who aren't the same person according to this article), and some other dude too, all building libertarian utopias in a country that's seen both socialism and fascism in the past few decades.

Oh and Chile is also prone to the world's most destructive and violent earthquakes.

Good site selection, guys.

That bugger at IKN scooped me on this article, which suggests to me that he's secretly a Jeff Berwick fan.


Some seasonality charts for you


In case you believe at all in playing balance of probabilities with seasonality plays, and you were wondering what does what over the next couple months:


Gold normally pukes at end of Feb and doesn't recover til a short (possibly not even playable) rebound end of April. August to February is really the obvious place to own this chart.

What's different this year? I guess gold should go up in expectation of a Modi victory in India. However, if Wall Street Whitey were smart, he would have already taken his long position. So I'd personally expect gold these next few months to underperform its 20 year average.




Miners are nowhere worth being until end of April, according to this chart.

What's different this year? I guess the miners were already puked into oblivion in December, so there might not be as many people left to sell. But then again, the people who bought in December and January might be happy to sell now and lock in gains, no? So it's a wash whether you should expect miners to underperform or overperform this chart - I guess it depends more on the price of gold's under- or over-performance this year.




Strangely, NASDAQ is also a worthless place to be in March and early April over the past 20 years.

What's different this year? Well, the Q was already bid up these past several months, in anticipation of Rosenberg's future capital investment & new dawn of technology play. So I guess you should expect Q to underperform its long-term average this spring.




Well check that out! SPY starts taking off right about now!

What's different this year? Everyone's freaking out because of the bad economic reports coming out of the US. But that was all weather-related: Michael Shaoul in particular has been very blase the short-term data and has remained very constructive USA longer-term. So I'd expect SPY to at least match the above average performance, or even do better, over the next few months.

NOTE: I hope you understand why I'm not only looking at the seasonal average behaviour, but also asking "what's different this year".

It's because it's silly to expect this year's performance to mimic the 20-year average chart exactly. But it's not so silly to ask "well, should this year be better than, or worse than, the 20-year average?" Asking what's different from the average situation this year seems like a balance-of-probabilities good way to predict that.


GDXJ either falls from here or doesn't: an analysis


Here's some TA:


GDXJ has fallen back to around its short-period EMA.

This is either yet another pullback before GDXJ goes up higher, or it's a sign that GDXJ is rolling over.

GDXJ has done this twice before and went back up: early January, and late January.

Now, I've come across something these past few years that I call the "rule of three": if you have seen a chart do something twice, and you expect it to do the same thing a third time so you can make easy money, you're going to be let down.

This is because by the time the third occasion comes up, so many people have figured out that these occasions make them easy money that the party bus is already overcrowded and there's not enough people left out to get on to make the thing happen a third time.

Also, the market is supposed to screw over everyone who thinks they've found a way to make easy money.

Now combine this with these further points:

1. PDAC happening this weekend, and the tradition is to puke juniors into oblivion the weekend of PDAC;
2. gold is traditionally weak in March, and junior miners' stock prices depend on rising gold prices;
3. that chart pretty much shows an insurmountable volume peak in mid-Feb.

So given all that, which way would you expect GDXJ to move from here?

So I'm looking for broken charts to sell right now; B2Clive still looks great, but Rio Alto not so much, for example. I'm in no rush, I've got some great unrealized profits and can leave some money on the table in case everyone else is already thinking the same as me.

UPDATE: an five minutes later the market gave us the answer: puke everything, it's PDAC time!


MtGox = Magic the Gathering online exchange


Fark - Mt. Gox website has been taken down, shocking many who thought exchanging real money for fake online currency through a website set up to trade Magic: The Gathering cards was a solid idea.

Only now do we hear about this?

MtGox = Magic the Gathering online exchange.

Reading the comments at Fark will restore your faith in humanity - at least until you get to the comments from people defending the idea of bitcoin, who quite obviously have no clue about economics. Here's some examples of the more sane comments:

- Hey everyone, I am starting a new currency based on Gold Pieces from Advanced Dungeons and Dragons! For one dollar, real money, I will give you 100gp! It's a sure thing! Buy now, while my 8th Level Thief's supplies last!

- The system can't scale, is vulnerable to mass bad actors colluding, based on absolutely nothing (like a fiat currency) and is inherently DEFLATIONARY. It was created to give computer nerd libertarians an orgasm, and maybe make them some wealth.

- before the bitcoin "boom" a small article came out about how 75% of the bitcoins were controlled by a cartel. This cartel was manipulating the value and teasing it upwards. when DPR (that one that got caught) was arrested he was paying tithes to this mafia. Now, his (dpr's) wallet had 9/25ths of the remaining bitcoins. when that went off the market you had a 36% contraction in the money supply...the BC's were at about 350$ then and you saw the bounce to around 500$ (reflective of the new currency to demand ratio). Then the idiots heard about it, the Chinese too, and they all started buying. The stuff went sky high....the major share holders started dumping their holdings and manipulating the market. Boom....crash, reality hits and everyone is stuck with junk as worthless as your furry outfits in second life.

- So bitcoin enthusiasts tell you that the safe place to store your bitcoins is at home. Because of course, it makes perfect sense to have $20,000 sitting on your hard drive on your computer, where a hard drive crash or theft or a fire means it's all gone. So, bitcoin enthusiasts will tell you that actually, you're supposed to keep your bitcoins in cold storage, in a "paper wallet" which is stored in multiple places, like a bank deposit box, where no one can steal it.

- If there is one good thing about all of this, it is that this is a relatively quick lesson (say... 2 yrs, compared to a 4 year economics degree) on what it is that the Fed actually does. In other words, anybody who invest in and follows bitcoin closely is going to get a very very real lesson in the history of currency and why it is so complicated the way it is managed now.

and so on.

Short version: stick, fork, done.

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

A great internet utility page for you


If you're scum like me, you tend to get IP-banhammered from sites regularly. For legitimate reasons.

So how can I tell if a website is actually down, or they've just banninated my IP?

Sure, I could go to work and try the site from there, but how often do I ever really show up at work? Fuck that shit, they pay me to stay away. Plus, the website might have banhammered my entire international corporation too. You can never be sure.

Sure, I could try releasing IP and cycling my modem to snatch a new IP address, but it doesn't seem to work that well now that my provider has snagged sufficient new blocks. I need to shut off my modem for days to cycle to a new IP assignment, and that means no porn and no Ke$ha videos so fuck that shit.

So here's a little utility site I just stumbled across:

http://www.downforeveryoneorjustme.com/

You type in the URL, and it tells you whether the site is down for everyone, or just you.

And while we're at it, here's Our Daniela with David Harquail


He's less of a philosopher than Pierre Lassonde, but nevertheless a good listen:




And since he knows how to do due diligence to avoid investing FNV's money in pathetic money pits like Colossus, he's therefore also a much better CEO than Nolan Watson.

Sorry, Nolan. Harquail's a man, you're still a boy.


Our Daniela interviews Pierre Lassonde on gold


Daniela's back!

Here she is interviewing Pierre Lassonde, inventer of the Lassonde Curve, which Brent Cook shows at every single talk he gives (though I've not seen him give credit):



Funny thing is, Otto emails me a link to this saying he really liked the interview.

I start watching it, and what does Lassonde immediately start talking about?

Supply and demand in the physical markets as sole determinant of the gold price.

In fact, Lassonde goes so far as to reduce it to an equation: every 100 tons of gold oversupply reduces price by $30.

It's shocking, shocking I tell you, that Otto even shared this link with me. Supply and demand? That old myth of classical economics?

Other than that, Pierre agrees with me 100% that a crash in China will be very bad for gold - and, by the way, I still think y'all should worry quite a fuck of a lot more than you do about how much of the gold that went to China these past couple years is acting as collateral for bad loans. Loans that might fall to bits at any time, taking out other loans with them, til the entire edifice of the Chinese credit system spooges out a desperate and hurried ejaculation of decollateralized metals into an overwhelmed world market.

Spend some time thinking about it, m'kay?

Pierre also agrees with me 100% that Indian gold demand is being met; the tariffs looked bad to Whitey but the gold just moved to unofficial channels.

And, hilariously, Pierre notes that "central bankers spend absolutely no time thinking about gold". No, Ben Bernanke isn't constantly scheming on how to suppress the price of gold in order to maintain the masses' trust in worthless fiat, as certain bloggers insist.

Anyway, great work Daniela. See if you can get an excuse to interview Pierre Lassonde again at PDAC. The gold investing world doesn't need to hear from another newsletter clown, they need more of this guy.

Also see if you can interview The Clive.

I'll be there on Sunday if you want to interview me.


Some news for Tuesday, including some bitcoin Schadenfreude (and bonus Genesis lyrics)


I capitalized Schadenfreude and not bitcoin, because Schadenfreude is real while bitcoins turns out to be just another pile of fiat.

Here's some reading:


Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - and then the whole world broke out. Is the breakout of the MCSI All-World index a harbinger of the imminent massive repudiation of debt? Or instead is it a sign that you're still flat-footed and need to get your ass in gear?


Mining.com - Mt. Gox goes bust, 744,408 bitcoins gone missing. Where some bitcoin fanclown posts this comment:
"We are building a new financial order, and those of us building it, investing in it, and growing it, will pay the price of bringing it to the world. This is the harsh truth. We are building the channels, the bridges, and the towers of tomorrow's finance, and we put ourselves at risk in doing so."
Translation: 
Some of you are going to die - 
martyrs, of course, to the freedom that I shall provide.
I personally prefer building things in a world with workers' compensation, workplace health & safety legislation, and no harsh truths. Then again, I work in engineering, in the real world, where you try not to be responsible for massive death and destruction.

Though yes, I know, 300 years ago you could build channels and bridges by simply killing enough worthless Irishmen.


BI - Gartman on the collapse of Mt. Gox. Quote:
"We have never been fans of Bitcoin, believing it to be nothing more than a scam of the first order and a breeding ground for drug dealing and tax evasion. We have pled with our clients around the world not to become involved with Bitcoin in any form or fashion, but even we are stunned by the announcement that the Bitcoin exchange, Mt. Gox, has gone bankrupt... or soon will... in the past twenty four hours, proving once again our old adage that 'there is never just one cockroach'.

"Mt.Gox had delayed paying out trading profits and/or holdings of cash or of Bitcoins themselves in recent weeks, blaming problems on technical circumstances... upon “server” problems... or upon other technical irregularities. Now it is being reported that Mt. Gox has suffered the theft of several hundred thousand of its deposited Bitcoins and that the theft took place a year or more ago and is only now coming to light.”
Hm. Have you ever had this happen to your "fiat" dollars? Ever had them all just disappear one day? No?


On silly charts


The problem with going through life expecting a "massive repudiation of debt as a dishonest system comes apart at the seams" is that every time you look at that darn S&P 500 chart, you will hallucinate yet another bugaboo hinting at you that the repudiation/apart-coming is right around the corner.

Viz this guy's chart of this morning:


Ooh scary! Price has gone up while RSI isn't as strong as at the last peak! Ooh scary! Let's go short the S&P!

Problem is this:


This already happened in April 2011 and June 2012. Both times avoided that 2008-style 50% decline that the first chart suggests is right around the corner. World didn't end.

In fact, the June 2012 dump was the one that generated that now-famous "massive repudiation of debt as a dishonest system comes apart at the seams" line:
Last year the wild card element to a bullish picture was the election year cycle and in particular, a sitting Democrat election year cycle. This year the wild card is something more powerful; the unwinding of US and global credit markets in a massive repudiation of debt by the withdrawal of its feeder, credit. In a leveraged global economic structure it is credit that fuels the machine.

It’s an ‘organic economy’ or it’s ‘organic growth’ you say? As credit continues to be withdrawn we’ll see how organic it is. Really, this is the single silliest thing I have ever seen in print in the financial blogosphere. The economy has been sprayed with myriad toxic elements to try to get it to grow. The system is mutating, and the Fed is the Monsanto of the financial world. Consumer spending is like genetically engineered corn; it’ll feed you but it is part nature and part laboratory (Read: a consumerist experiment).
And so after all that, what actually happened to the world after June 2012?


Hm. Seems the world didn't end. Did pretty well after June 2012, in fact.

Um... not gold, of course.

But wait, there's more:
10-year US Treasury yields are well into breakout mode now and the Banks continue with their breakout as measured in S&P 500 units.  So far so good.

Before ‘T2C’ takes effect however, rising interest rates (bond market declines) across the board could signal that the game is changing; and in my opinion it is changing for the better.  That is because linear thinkers and followers of convention will not be able to hide in bonds this time, as if it is just as easy as ‘risk off?… buy bonds’.  Lazy thinking is going to be punished.

Stock bulls should learn about the pitfalls of following convention as well, because with the funding mechanism (credit, debt… bonds) under stress, the media creation known as the Great Rotation (from bonds to stocks) is not likely to work out in the short-term.

[...]

A dishonest system is coming apart at the seams. What better environment for honest money to be taken to the woodshed for the first slaughter of its bull market?
And so what happened to bonds after this famous "massive repudiation of debt" post of 24 June 2013?


It seems the world stopped massively repudiating debt the minute that this massive repudiation was brought into the harsh daylight of Wordpress. It's truly almost as if JP Morgan and the Lizard People are out there monitoring the shadowed edges of the blogosphere, trying to find people to torment.

So easy to control, bring to harm.
A gathering of fools, unjustified, on a mountain.

[...]

Where is the god of men and children?
He is stalking the minds of dark poor souls.


Monday, February 24, 2014

Speaking of Satanic ponies, here's some more Bitcoin Schadenfreude


Reuters - pony botnet steals bitcoins, ha ha. Quote:
Cyber criminals have infected hundreds of thousands of computers with a virus called "Pony" to steal bitcoins and other digital currencies, in the most ambitious cyber attack on virtual money uncovered so far, according to security firm Trustwave.

Trustwave said on Monday that it has found evidence that the operators of a cybercrime ring known as the Pony botnet have stolen some 85 virtual "wallets" that contained bitcoins and other types of digital currencies. The firm said it did not know how much digital currency was contained in the wallets.

"It is the first time we saw such a widespread presence of this type of malware. It was on hundreds of thousands of machines," said Ziv Mador, security research director with Chicago-based Trustwave.

Trustwave said it believes the crime ring is still operating, though it does not know who is running the group. The company said it has disrupted the servers that were controlling machines infected with Pony, but expects the group to launch more attacks on virtual currency users.

And what does ZeroHedge have to say about this?

ZeroHedge - glorious Mother Russia will destroy Ukraine by limiting food imports.
ZeroHedge - our Soviet handlers announce that American adventurism in the Ukraine is contrary to Russian interests, duh.
ZeroHedge - the Ukrainian revolution is a foul plot funded by the IMF and international Jewry, says Mother Russia.
ZeroHedge - Ron Paul: "I support the glorious Russian motherland in its battle against American imperialism."

When your news website is nothing but a clearing house for Soviet propaganda, you've become a joke.


If you visit ZeroHedge to read the news today


If you decide to read ZeroHedge today, you'll read several articles about the Ukraine that are obviously written by Soviet stooges from Russia (including Ron Paul), meant to try to convince the American public to support the Russian side in this little war.

What you won't read are any articles on the collapse in Bitcoin prices.

Funny, that.


Seems I was proven right


My Owm Market Narrative - here come the lunatic Christian fucktards.

That's the article that reddit picked up on yesterday. It was published August 11, 2013.

Turns out I was right. Here's some articles that came out just a few days later:

Plymouth Herald - we apologize for our earlier idiotic hype, the pony wasn't killed by "Satanists" after all (21 Aug 2013).

Live Science - real cause of "Satanic sacrifice" pony found (23 Aug 2013).

Slacktivist - Satanists did not kill pony or turn woman into lesbian (26 Aug 2013).


Monday news


Someone reddited an old blog post of mine from last fall about the "Satanic" mutilation of ponies on Dartmoor, so I'm getting a bit of traffic now.

Here's the midday market news:


Calculated Risk - housing weakness: temporary or enduring? I'll spoil the ending for you: temporary.


New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators summary. He sees weakness. But I guess the rest of the market does too.


Krugginator - the myth of German austerity. Quote:
Public service announcement: Never, ever make claims about a country’s economic policies (or actually anything about economics) on the basis of what you think you've heard people say. Yes, you often hear people talking about austerity, and the Germans are big on praising and demanding austerity. But have they actually imposed a lot of it on themselves? Not so much.
But it's a typical racist belief, and therefore it's accepted as true by most people.


Mining.com - China's credit crisis could spell dooooom for iron ore. Something to keep your eyes open for. Maybe a collateralized base metals selling crisis will drive a move back down for gold? Heck, maybe those thousands of tons of gold that China's bought are part of that collateralization system, and any weakness can spill over into selling of gold too? Watch out, it might happen.


Mineweb - we're approaching a low demand month for gold. If you care about gold demand cycles, this article has the chart for you. March typically sucks, and with PDAC coming up this weekend the traditional portfolio management approach is to sell out your position in every single miner by Friday noon. Gold shouldn't be exciting again until July - and even then things might get bad if there's a bad year for crops in India. Or that China thing above.


Bonddad - ECRI sticking to its call that the US has been in a recession for years now. Here's the money shot:
In summary, ECRI appears to have descended to the level of Zero Hedge in trying to salvage their reputation. Sad.
Maybe ECRI are a bunch of hardcore Republicans, and therefore they're constrained by their politicoreligious dogma to insist that Obama has destroyed America, even when the data disagrees? In which case, we can just ignore them.


Two weak US charts look less weak this morning

Two interesting charts:


Regional banking seems to want to take another run at the SMA(50) this week. I guess the last 3 days of last week's heavy volume might have just been some idiot hedge fund getting out of their banking position?



Transports also looked horribly weak but have now bust out from their month-long range. I guess now they can go ahead and confirm the broader market advance.


Sunday, February 23, 2014

Interesting problem: Firefox, or something else?


I'm having a problem with a few websites this weekend, where they're not acting right.

YouTube, for example, is not loading the image previews for videos, unless I call it up using https://.

Some other pages are also problematic this weekend. Java scripts aren't working.

It seems Firefox last updated on Feb 20, so maybe there's some problem that broke scripts?