Saturday, December 21, 2013

I missed this news: Kevin Shields is bonkers


So I missed the news back in October that apparently Kevin Shields from My Bloody Valentine is bonkers*.

Not that there's anything wrong with being bonkers, as such. Hell, look at me.


The Guardian - Kevin Shields calls britpop a government conspiracy.

Quote:
Kevin Shields has raised the notion that Britpop was part of a government conspiracy. Speaking to the Guardian in an exclusive interview, to be published online later today and in the G2 Film&Music section tomorrow, the My Bloody Valentine leader reacted angrily to a mention of the Cool Britannia phenomenon.

"Britpop was massively pushed by the government," he said. "Someday it would be interesting to read all the MI5 files on Britpop. The wool was pulled right over everyone's eyes there."

In the early years of Tony Blair's premiership, Britpop luminaries such as Noel Gallagher and Damon Albarn were vocal supporters of the Labour government, and visited 10 Downing Street.

This sounds almost too sinister to be true. So you know it must be true! Fucking Labour coonts! Fucking nanny state totalitarian fucking coonts! Using fucking Oasis and Blur to breed a new compliant race of unthinking robots, then handing it over to their fucking coont buddies in the Tories so they can institute their Final Solution with the help of their fucking attack poodles in the Lib Dems.

They're all in on it. Even UKIP. Trust no one. The truth is out there.

And in the later interview:
"There are sinister forces at work," he adds. "Our freedom is diminishing. The rightwing is creeping in like water. That's got to stop." Then, zipping his cagoule purposefully, this sonic sorcerer and eccentric sweetheart issues a parting shot.

"Personally," he smiles. "I intend to react to it most disrespectfully."

Jeff Berwick was right all along! Wake up sheeple! We're through the looking glass here!




* - technically that should be "has been bonkers for a long time". Otherwise he'd have torn himself away from the fucking chemical spill outside the pharmaceutical plant for long enough to record a fucking album in 1994. 

Commentary on my awesome twitter mention.


This is awesome.

Twitter - BuffyNews feed

Short story is this: my post of a panel discussion that Liisa Ladouceur did with James Marsters and Juliet Landau earned me a twitter mention on the BuffyNews feed! And then a whole bunch of traffic!

I'm famous now!

So to celebrate, here's a video of two cute baby kittens hugging:


Mila Kunis beats all hedge funds in 2013: let's dive into the details


While I've temporarily got Wall Street paying attention to my blog, there's something I need to get off my chest:

Bloomberg - Mila Kunis annihilates hedge funds' 2013 performance.


If you don't remember, the story back in March was that Mila Kunis decided to take her enormous pile of wealth - gained not just from her transcendent beauty and heart-warming charm but also her fantastic acting and skill at World of Warcraft - and get it the hell out of CDs where it wasn't earning a goddamn penny. She said she was putting money into stocks.

And by the way, Mila Kunis is precisely this beautiful:



So, anyway, she was made the target of merciless mocking for her desire to get out of CDs and into some sort of proper investment for a young person.

And among her detractors was... who? A bunch of idiot clown bloggers and internet blowhards, of course. Chris Adams, Janet Paskin, Ben Hale, Mark Lichtenfeld, Daniel Gross, and of course Zerohedge and maybe a few dozen sheep at Reeking Alpha.

And yes, even Barry Ritholtz:

Barry Ritholtz, director of equity research at Fusion IQ, tweeted that he was glad she was sticking with her movie career.

"If she was giving up acting to become a daytrader, we'd have great contrary indicator!"

But since then, how has she done? Since March 15 when she gave her interview, the S&P is up 17%. QQQ is up 26%. IWM and $SOX are each up 21%. I'd have to think that her performance should be somewhere between those numbers. Let's say she's made an even 20%.

While everyone was laughing at the silly girl. Ha ha, silly girl, iz teh dumz, shut up Meg, and so on.

Meanwhile:
Tudor Investment Corp., the $13.4 billion macro hedge-fund firm run by Jones, climbed 3.7 percent in November in its Tudor BVI Global, bringing gains to 12 percent in 2013, a person familiar with the matter said.
That's not your average hedge fund clown, either. That's Paul Tudor Fucking Jones. Mila Kunis wiped the fucking floor with Paul Tudor Jones.

That's supposed to be as unlikely as me clobbering Vitaly Klitschko til he cries like a baby girl and pees himself.

But it is what it is, eh? She whipped Paul Tudor Jones' ass, and made him cry wike a widdle baby, boo hoo, while she's smacking him with his own hand, "why you hitting yourself, Paul Tudor Jones? Stop hitting yourself, Paul Tudor Jones!", and eventually he poos his pants and has to get sent home to mommy.

But it doesn't stop there:
Pershing Square Capital Management LP, the $12.1 billion activist hedge-fund firm run by Bill Ackman, posted a 1.2 percent net gain in its main strategy in November, according to a performance update obtained by Bloomberg News. Pershing Square International’s monthly return brings its year-to-date advance to 9.4 percent. The fund has $5.1 billion in assets.
That's not your average hedge fund clown either. But he, also, had his ass handed to him by Mila Kunis.

Hey Billy boy, here's what Mila Kunis looks like when she's laughing at you:


So cute! Almost takes away some of the sting of being beaten by a girl, eh? A girl who's not even a hedge fund manager, even.

I bet she even owned some Herbalife.



Let's look at some more comparisons with the Kunis Benchmark, shall we?
Bridgewater Associates LP, the $150 billion firm run by Ray Dalio and based in Westport, Connecticut, posted a 0.1 percent gain in its $16 billion Pure Alpha I fund, bringing this year’s return to 4.1 percent, according to a person briefed on the results. Pure Alpha II, with $64 billion, increased 0.1 percent in November and 6.1 percent in 2013.
Translation: Ray Dalio has also had his ass handed to him by Mila Kunis.

Whose stunning godlike radiance, by the way, unsurpassed through the ages, humbles even the immortal sun in photographs such as this:




Let's see if there's even more embarrassment of hedge fund clowns!
Jeff Vinik, the former Fidelity Investments stock picker turned hedge-fund manager, told clients in May that he was returning their capital after performance at his Vinik Asset Management LP slumped since July 2012.
What a clown. This guy can't even stay in business in a bull market! Jesus fuck, dude! You suck!

as industry assets quadrupled and the number of hedge funds almost doubled, managers have mostly trailed the S&P 500.
Holy shit! "Mostly"? That means "hedge fund managers have mostly trailed Mila Kunis"!

Trailing Mila Kunis, by the way, might look something like this:



It gets worse. And by "worse", I mean you arrogant Wall Street fatties all fucking suck and should just fucking kill yourselves right now:
Hedge funds, which stand to earn about $50 billion in management fees this year based on industrywide assets, are underperforming the benchmark U.S. index for the fifth year in a row
What? People are paying hedge fund morons fifty billion dollars to get outperformed by Mila Kunis?

Every one of you clowns out there who went "herr derr Mila Kunis top sell sell" should feel fucking humiliated. You should publicly shame yourselves in blag posts and twerts and whatever the fuck else, for the rest of the year, proclaiming Mila Kunis as your new god, and admitting your own worthlessness in the face of the transcendent beauty and infinite investing wisdom that is Mila Kunis.

I now end this post with another pic of Mila Kunis laughing at Wall Street:


You are all bad, and you should feel bad.

My resolution for 2014: no more reading investment advice from anyone who isn't Mila Kunis.


And now for some news


I've felt everything was pretty much set-and-forget, so there wasn't much point in posting news. Also I was busy with other things.

But here's a bit of weekend reading for you:


BI - David Rosenberg's outlook for 2014. I wonder if Mister "dishonest system coming apart at the seams" is going to quote Rosenberg in this weekend's newsletter? I wonder if "abating fiscal headwinds" and "increasing capex growth" are economic concepts that your local doomer analyst even comprehends? I wonder why you should be giving even a penny of your money to an "analyst" who doesn't even understand these things?


Bonddad - on Thursday's initial claims report. Haven't been reading his blog recently, but here he looks under the hood and points out several places where the data is not what it seems. Read it.


FT beyond brics - China liquidity crunch. Seems nobody's paying attention to this right now.


Marketwatch - Mark Hulbert on gold. Ouch:
Gold market timers have not themselves completely thrown in the towel. If and when they do, contrarians would become more confident that a sustainable gold rally was imminent.

Consider the average recommended gold market exposure among a subset of short-term gold market timers tracked by the Hulbert Financial Digest (as measured by the Hulbert Gold Newsletter Sentiment Index, or HGNSI). This average currently stands at minus 16.7%, suggesting that the typical gold timer is allocating a sixth of his gold-oriented portfolio to shorting the market.

That means that the typical timer is only modestly bearish right now. You’d think, given the panic elsewhere in the industry, that they would be more aggressively bearish.

There are two patterns in the accompanying chart that are noteworthy in this regard. First, notice the HGNSI’s low this past summer. That’s when it dropped to minus 56.7%, which meant that at that time the average gold timer was more than three times more bearish than today. Contrarians are wondering why, since bullion itself is only slightly higher today than where it stood when the HGNSI was so much lower.

Secondly, notice how quickly the HGNSI has been jumping every time gold tried to mount even a tiny rally. That’s a bad sign, from a contrarian point of view, since it suggests there’s an underlying reservoir of hope and optimism. The ultimate low, according to contrarian analysis, will be one that is met by a lot more skepticism and despair from gold timers.
So this isn't the bottom yet? I don't really follow Mark Hulbert and his sentiment analysis, but I know certain goldbug TAs out there do. It'll be interesting to see if they mention this article this weekend.


Mineweb - more stories about Indian gold smuggling. There's a billion Indians and 400 tons of organic gold demand being repressed: does anyone really believe that incompetent clown Chidambaram when he asserts "the maximum gold that can be smuggled is 1 tonne a month"? Especially when Indians are doing this:
In another incident, officials of the customs department recovered gold hidden in dates from a man who landed at the Pune International Airport from Sharjah. The suspect has been identified as a resident of Kasargod in Kerala, who worked in Abu Dhabi.

The custom sleuths found the dates wrapped in a bag. Further investigation revealed that the seeds of these dates had been replaced with gold beads wrapped in black packets. The gold beads weighed 409 grams each.
Seriously, when they're going to these lengths, you can be sure there's an army of Indians doing a better job smuggling their gold into the country.

Especially when you realize professional smugglers pay off the police and airport authorities so that they never even get their stuff inspected. This guy with the dates was just a hobbyist.


BCSC is fucked in the head, charges Silvercorp analyst with fraud.


Mineweb - BCSC accuses analyst of fraud in Silvercorp short-selling. What? Publishing a report based on boots-on-the-ground research, that leads you to take a short position, then profiting from that position, is fraud? Have the Chinese government bought someone at the BCSC now? Because we know that Chinese politicians have already gotten involved in political pressure on behalf of Silvercorp, including extra-judicial kidnapping. It's to the point where the SEC was investigating Silvercorp, not the report writers. Here, BCSC assholes, let me quote the Barrons article for you:

Whatever the verdict in Luoyang, Huang and his colleagues seem justified in their skepticism of Silvercorp's mining. Over the past few years, Silvercorp has steadily revised downward the grade quality it claims for its silver resources, to a level that's now just a third of its initial claims. Earlier this month, Silvercorp seemingly validated the hedge fund's findings, when Silvercorp told shareholders that its ore grade had fallen because its contractors had adulterated the Henan mine's output by adding "waste rock" to the ore to increase their transport payments and mining fees. Since the fiscal year that ended in March 2011, Silvercorp's annual earnings have fallen from 40 cents a share to 16 cents a share. Its New York Stock Exchange-listed shares have slid from their 2011 high of $16 to a recent $3.27.

Who exactly committed the fraud here? Hm? I certainly hope the BCSC aren't basing their case on this testimony from China:

Wei says Luoyang police tried to get the analysts to sign prewritten confessions that said the analysts had fraudulently run their chemical analyses on roadside rocks instead of Silvercorp ore. The Canadian Huang refused to sign what he said were false statements. But Wei, 33, was a Chinese citizen who couldn't hope that a foreign government would come to his aid. Wei led police to believe he would testify against his colleagues, and he signed confessions that -- now that he has escaped to London -- he says were false and coerced. "If I didn't say what they want," Wei tells Barron's, "I will be put in jail."

I wonder if the Canadian government will ever bother to get involved in this BCSC case, or if our own government's silence has been purchased with Chinese money:

Don Davies, the member of parliament who represents the Vancouver region where Huang's father lives, suggests the Canadian government may be dragging its feet. The administration of Prime Minister Stephen Harper, he notes, has fervidly pursued China's investment and trade. When contacted by Barron's, a spokesperson for Canada's Foreign Affairs Ministry, said, "We are in contact with local authorities and are monitoring the situation closely."

BCSC, you're fucking up badly. You've just done a fantastic job of proving that we can't even count on the regulators. I'll be keeping my capital the fuck away from Canadian exchanges from now on.


Saturday video: No really, now for something completely different


Here's a clip from La Voz Peru, which seems to be some sort of "Peru's got talent" TV show for Peruvians in Peru.



And if course, she does a cover of "Bring Me to Life" by Evanescence, about the total destruction of the junior mining scene.

Friday, December 20, 2013

Friday videos: and now for something completely different.


Yes, it's Evanescence again, singing "Bring Me to Life" again, about the death of the Venture exchange again.

Except this time Amy's wearing a red bustier and a star and is a bit more chubby, and the guy who also sings is pretty much left out of the mix:



Really, it's hard to keep track of these.

Also junior miners suck™.

Thursday, December 19, 2013

Little Xmas present: Daniel Richler interviewing the Jesus & Mary Chain in 1985


I remember seeing this interview on TV as a kid and wanting to be a rock star like the Jesus and Mary Chain.

Here's Daniel Richler, from The New Music, interviewing the Jesus & Mary Chain (oh look, including Bobby Gillespie) back in 1985. Tons of memorable quotes here.



Best line is William: "My favourite colour is gold."

As a commenter says, re feasibiliy studies


As commenter Fredrik L says, concisely and transcendently,

So a bankable feasibility study is just a well formatted and ├╝ber designed guesstimate. No wonder that most investors are turning their backs on the sector, and they won't be back in a hurry.

And this is what Garth Kirkham P.Geo. needs to understand. This is the basis of the 43-101 discussion that our little vom-soaked corner of the blogosphere is trying to start.

You guys are getting no more fucking capital from the capital markets, ever. Not until you clean up your goddamn act. Which begins with the proper apportioning of blame.

Til then, no new mines get built, no more exploration happens, because you are getting no more capital. Because capital got its ass handed to it. Your admitted-faulty system lost capital money. And so capital has decided it'd rather be somewhere else now.

Like I've been saying for 2 years, you guys have re-enacted the Bre-X fiasco. Except this time the entire industry joined in.


Thursday video: ha ha! You thought I'd given up!


Ha ha! Not bloody likely!

Here's Evanescence, this time with the music video for the song "Bring Me to Life":




One newsbit, followed by a rant


BI - gold just got ANNIHILATED!!!1!ELEVEN!!

Here's Joey the Weasel:
It's not totally clear why gold just fell out of bed this morning.
Um... more sellers than buyers?
But overall this is a terrible environment for gold, as all the old stories about endless Fed printing and hyperinflation and political instability are coming to an end.
Yes, and how much gold demand is generated by people buying due to fears of hyperinflation and political instability, Joey?
Instead the Fed is pulling back on QE, the US government just passed a budget, and inflation remains low?

Silver is also similarly tanking.
And that's the funny bit, the thing about silver. Cos if the US economy is accelerating, then shouldn't an industrial metal used widely for electronics and photovoltaics see its demand increase?

Instead, Wall Street Whitey tanks silver because he thinks it's just another form of gold.

So that's your answer to the first bit, above. Wall Street Whitey sells the PMs and they go down.

Let's criticize the "professional" geologists' community some more


IKN - more on Aurcana.

I'm sure he won't complain if I quote the post in is entirety:

Instead of pointing the finger at the bullshit liar Lenic Rodriguez this time (though he's still as guilty as fuck of being a bullshit liar, that hasn't changed a jot) let us expand our catchment of the liars and bullshitters that populate this sorry tale that is Shafter.

Step forward, Jack W. Burgess, PE, of 165 Windover Lane, Corrales, New Mexico 87048, United States of America. Jack Burgess and his company, JB Consulting, is the man responsible for the 267 page work of fiction known as the 2011 Shafter Feasibility Study, the very study that contained key data described as "an inconsistent predictor of tons and grade" by AUN.v on December 12th 2013 (yup, we had to wait that long for those AUN fuckers to hire somebody who was reliable and had the guts to speak truth to power) and that once a re-do of the 43-101 were complete it would result in "...a significant reduction in the aggregate mineral resource estimate as compared with the mineral resource estimate contained in the June 2011 amended feasibility study".

So, close-knit mining community, can you see to it that Jack Burgess is struck off for being a liar? Or will it be just another case of you self-serving pieces of shit passing the blame from one desk to another and nobody is responsible for your pisspoor system?

Strong words from someone who actually has friends who are professional geologists!

But yeah. Perhaps someone like Garth Kirkham, P.Geo, 43-101 QP, CIM Best Practices Committee Chair, can explain what process will now be instituted by the "profession" to determine whether JB Consulting produced a competent FS.

Wednesday, December 18, 2013

One quick thought...





I realized that it actually should be the goldbug right-wing hyperinflationista wackaloons who are caterwauling for a 1929 crash.

After all, they're the ones who spent the last 3 years losing 90% in the junior miners while the S&P500 went up nearly 100%.

The people who most passionately want a crash, as Ritholtz and the Borker note, are the ones who haven't spent the last several years in the broad equities.

Yet again, Republicanism and Obama-hatred will remain a losing investment strategy.

Wednesday video: I can keep posting Evanescence videos all year. Can you keep owning shitty junior miners?


Here's Evanescence, with "Bring Me to Life", which as you know by now is about the final destruction of the junior mining scene, this time in Europe:



You can tell this was a few years after the song first broke. Still, good performance.

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Apple joke


My wife tried out the iPad recently.

She said it was uncomfortable and not even slightly absorbent.


Man emerges from bunker after 14 years


No, this really happened:

CBC - Man emerges from bunker 14 years after Y2K scare. Quote:

January 1, 2000 was the day that our computers were meant to fail us and change our lives forever. It was also the day that 44 year old Norman Feller headed into his underground bunker over fears of the fallout from the Y2K virus. Remarkably Mr. Feller spent the next 14 years in isolation only to emerge this past September.

In this touching documentary, Peter Oldring visits with Norman to learn more about his unbelievable decision to live underground.

What's really bummed him out the most is that he missed a 800% bull market in gold.

Dave Nadig gloats over the destruction of gold


Dave Nadig - fool's gold: the end of an era. Don't know this guy, but Josh Brown linked to him. He has an interesting point about the gold investment industry:

GLD’s peak NAV in August last year was $184.59. On that day, there were 424 million shares outstanding, for net assets of more than $78 billion, with an implied annual fee due of $313 million a year.

Today assets stand at just $33 billion—well under half their peak, with an implied fee base of $131 million a year. That’s nearly $200 million that’s leaving the GLD management ecosystem.

I’m not expecting anyone to feel sorry for the poor ETF issuer here (State Street and the World Gold Council). Rather, I’m pointing out that decline in gold has made for some rather dramatic shifts in the investment economy.

That's an interesting point, no?

Then he spends a big chunk of the article putting the boots to Eric Sprott:

Consider Eric Sprott. I first came to know of Sprott when his Physical Gold Trust launched in 2010—right in the froth of the run-up—and it was being called an “ETF” by various media sources (it’s not; it’s a closed-end fund). At the time, I ripped it apart for tax issues, poor marketing and various other shortcomings.

That’s nothing to the savaging Sprott received at the hands of one of the smartest bloggers on the Web, Kid Dynamite. Kid Dynamite has made a kind of sport out of watching how Sprott’s closed-end funds magically become un-closed and issue new shares when they trade to large premiums.

Nothing wrong there, other than the fact that the big recipient of those nonpremium shares tended to be other Sprott funds, who could then sell them for the premium price. Nice work if you can get it.

But while the various shenanigans may have worked on the way up, they’ve brutalized the company—and Eric Sprott—on the way down. Take their flagship closed-end gold fund, PHYS. It launched on Feb. 26, 2010. GLD investors are up 9.09 percent since then. PHYS investors are up 6.36 percent. I don’t know how you leave 1 percent a year on the table when your only job is to buy gold and stick it in a vault, but there you have it.

And a comment about the worthlessness of all goldbug commentary, except of course for my blog which is awesome:

Of course, the question any rational investor should ask is, What’s next? And that’s where it becomes very difficult to read the news. In most rational sectors of the global economy, analysts are analysts.

You read the reports from agricultural experts or retail-stock experts, and they generally call things as they see them. In the precious metals space, nearly every article you get off any kind of Google search will always be telling you why “Now is the time!”

And a final bit of insight:

It’s important to remember that gold—and the entire gold investment economy—is unique. Gold, by itself, is useless and valueless. It has value only because it’s scarce, and then only because enough people believe its scarcity can make it a useful medium of representing value and making transactions. Gold is, essentially, an idea that people assign value to. Lots of folks believe? It goes up. Crisis of faith? It tanks.

Which even applies to the China and India EM secular wealth growth story.

Was an interesting article, I felt like sharing it.


Joe Fahmy was there in 1999, and here he explains why this isn't a replay of 1999.


I quit reading Fahmy for a couple years, but it turns out he's starting to post interesting stuff again. I'll have to re-RSS him.

He was around in 1999, so he can tell you what that market was like in 1999. Here, read this entire article:


Joe Fahmy - stories from 1999. Hell, I'll just quote most of it for the lazier readers:

- Back in 1999, many of the companies that were trading at $100-$1000 had earnings of less than 0.50 cents per share. Some had no earnings and the metrics analysts used to value them were “clicks” and “eyeballs.” When you look at many of today’s high-priced stocks (MA, GOOG, PCLN, AAPL), these companies are earning $30-$50 dollars per share! BIG DIFFERENCE!

I'm sure, though, that someone will reply "hurr durr Facebook, hurr durr Tesla, therefore herp derp bubble". Because two stocks with major market dominance in growth fields is the same as an entire constellation of venture tech stocks in the late 90s.

- For about 6 months during the dot-com bubble, this was my strategy: At 10AM EST, I would buy the top 3 stocks on the point gainers list. The stocks were usually up around $3 at that time. I would leave the office, go to my morning meetings, have lunch, attend more meetings in the afternoon, and then come back to the office by 3:30PM to sell my stocks. Every stock was usually up between $10-$30. Again, this went on for months! Talk about complacency, huh?

Is that complacency around today? Frankly, the only market I've seen like that in my few years was the 2009-2010 gold stocks. Hey, wait....

- One friend who was on that trip got “option fever” and decided to open his first brokerage account (don’t worry, I explained options to him during halftime of the Monday Night Football game). He started with QCOM options in November 1999. The stock went from $200 to $400 in 2 weeks and his $10,000 deposit went to $50,000 in 7 trading days[...].

Do you know any market rookies who are trading options on stocks right now? That sort of craziness seems to be what you'd see in 1999. Sounds more like trading junior mining warrants... oh, wait....

- Another friend was trading a stock for 6 months and then one day it was up 40 points. He called me to ask what the news was and I told him they got FDA approval for one of their drugs. He paused for a good 5 seconds and said “OHHHH SHIT! They’re a BIO-tech company!…I had NO IDEA???” For the prior 6 months, he thought he was trading a semiconductor stock. He then said “Oh well, who cares, they’re all just letters and symbols, right?”

"Oh well, who cares, they're all just letters and symbols"?!? That sure sounds like complacency, right there. Sort of like being in 2010 and happily trading a known-to-be-valueless junior miner with a history of incompetence, OPUD and generous management compensation, instead of a well-managed company whose stock just doesn't fly up as fast. Oh, wait....

- I remember putting in a market order for 500 shares of a stock that was trading at $50. I didn’t get filled for 3 minutes and the stock moved to $55. I thought maybe my order never went through, so I cancelled it and placed another market order. Now the stock was at $60 and I still DIDN’T GET FILLED!!! I said to heck with this, cancelled the second order, and left it alone. At the end of the day, the stock was up $60 to $110, lol.

Does that sound like today's S&P 500? You seeing any fast markets in S&P stocks?

And this, to me, seems to be the key takeaway from Joe Fahmy, since Josh Brown has picked up on this too:

In fact, all my friends that I described in these stories currently HATE the stock market. I try to encourage them to invest for the long-term, but they have NO interest in getting involved. As I mentioned in my previous blog, I think people use the term bubble to describe today’s market because they are annoyed. They want the market to come down but it won’t, so they call it a bubble out of frustration.

I guess there must be a lot of people out there who didn't buy the Summer 2011 "imminent Euro breakup" crash, and are pissed off at how they missed the subsequent 60% advance in the S&P. Then they didn't buy the two 10% S&P 500 corrections in 2012 (I don't even remember what was happening back then), then they didn't buy the three teensy 5% corrections in 2013, and all the time the market has gone higher.

Germany's gone up 60% since summer 2012, UK 30% in the same period, Japan popped 30% in 6 months on Abenomics, and I bet a lot of doomers are pissed at having held PMs while the broad markets went up and the doom of coming worldwide economic collapse vanished.

So they call a recovering stock market a bubble.

They want the market to come down, but it refuses to.


Vehement agreement with Ritholtz


I'm in a chatty mood today, so I'll probably go thru the interesting news articles one at a time.


Ritholtz - am I too bullish? Ritholtz tries to clarify his point of view. For example:
First, our discussion on recent surveys of affluent investors revealing them sitting on $6 trillion and as much as 50 percent cash in their portfolios was about investor psychology. That pile of cash is not likely the result of carefully studied market history and astute observations of timing. Rather, it is most likely the result of fear. It has been a drag on portfolios for at least four years; it typically reflects a combination of poor planning and emotion.
And as for the CAPE crap, he has an important thing to point out to you:
But I keep bringing CAPE up in the context of confirmation bias. One should not cherry pick the valuation measure that supports a prior view to the exclusion of all other measures of what is dear. Indeed, as discussed back in August, Merrill Lynch’s quant team looked at 15 valuation metrics and concluded that stocks were not overvalued; by most metrics, they were fairly valued. My reasons for discussing CAPE was to critique newfound discoverers of Bob Shiller’s valuation metric who were attracted to it for all the wrong reasons. That sort of cognitive error cries out to be recognized.
It's entirely true and I've been screaming this at people for a while now too. Number one, if all the other metrics disagree with CAPE, why should you care about CAPE? What makes CAPE special? And number two, if all the other valuation metrics disagree with CAPE, why aren't you looking under the hood to see exactly why CAPE is disagreeing? Because you might learn something.

Also:
Next, comparing corporate profits to gross domestic product is a metric that has been used by bears for about a year now. But just like the flawed Fed Valuation Model, there are two variables involved. Mean reversion of that ratio does not have to occur only by an earnings collapse. If GDP were to accelerate on improved hiring or spending, that would also satisfy the mean reversion of that ratio.
If someone fails to comprehend the underlined sentence above, it means simply that he failed grade 8 math. A ratio can go down either because the numerator goes down, or because the denominator went up: if someone doesn't understand this, I block them forever off my reading list.

Ritholtz isn't a screaming bull, he's watching for downside: if you're mocking him for simplistic bullishness, then you've never bothered to read a damn thing he has to say.



UPDATE: I dunno why Ritholtz himself bothered to tweet a link to this post, cos it's not like I'm adding anything new. All I'm doing is agreeing with a post of his.

So to make it worth your while, here's a picture of Mila Kunis, who's a better stock market analyst than you because she quietly put her money in the market while all you clowns were still freaking out about impending Euro collapse and debt ceiling childishness and China doom and whatever:


You are looking at the woman who just whooped the ass of every hedge fund in the US.


On gold ETFs


Mineweb - blah blah gold ETFs suck. In case you haven't heard it before, here's the key:
“Gold ETPs are preferred by a lot of people because at the end of the day it’s easier to trade and easier to manage your portfolio,” said Francisco Blanch, the head of commodities research at Bank of America Corp. in New York. “And it’s probably cheaper. If you buy physical bars, you have the cost of the bar, but you also may have to pay for storage of the physical bar. The ETP does all of that for you.”
That is why gold popped to $1900, why it's since dropped back to $1200, and why the physics underlying today's gold market is completely different than the physics underlying the gold market pre-2003.

Try to imagine what would have happened to the gold price over the past six years if there had been no such thing as gold ETFs: I think it would probably have continued its slow boring upward trajectory, with no ETF-driven pop, and no subsequent ETF-driven crash. After all, Asian physical demand kept going up, and mine reserves kept going down, right?

The only thing that's different is that incompetent Republican hedge-fund fools were able to cheaply and simply buy old via ETFs for their misinformed "coming hyperinflation" play. Because I don't think they would have bought physical bars, and because the buying and cancelling of futures wouldn't have impacted underlying physical supply/demand.

That's my theory, anyway.

Tuesday video: go on, guess.


Yes, again, it's Evanescence, this time at Rock am Ring 2004, with "Bring Me to Life":




Sunday, December 15, 2013

Liisa Ladouceur interviews Spike and Drusilla


I was poking around reading up on gothy & industrially Canadian people of the early 90s, and came across a blog of Liisa Ladouceur. I remember she used to write articles everywhere, and was probably one of the 2 or 3 people in the Canadian music press who I thought was worth reading, and I used to have fun pronouncing her name weirdly cos of the two i's, and I think I even talked to her once and she had said she had met me...? Maybe it was through Ninth Wave?

No idea. Anyway, she's got a website about goth and vampires and stuff, even today, and here she is interviewing James Marsters and Juliet Landau (Spike and Drusilla from Buffy TVS) at what I guess is a convention or something:



Because after all you come here for the Buffy content and not the junior mining commentary.


Sunday video: Evanescence with "Bring Me to Life", about how gold miners suck™, live at Rockpalast


I'm sorry, but if you're going to wallow in your own pathos as you see your few remaining junior mining stocks go to zero in the pandemonium of tax loss selling to come, then you may as well wallow with Amy Lee: