Saturday, July 20, 2013

Some Saturday morning news


Three newsbits for Saturday morning:


Dragonfly Capital - you've been calling for a crash for 6 months, now what? As he says, perhaps you'll be right again at some point in the future; if that happens I know I'm sure to hear about it.


Bespoke - high yield spreads decline from another lower high. Here's a chart:

As far as massive repudiations of debt go, this one doesn't seem to measure up. Ahem.


Mining.com - $16 billion gold deposit discovered in China. Exploration continues in the Tianshan mountains, which are one of many places in central Asia where you should be able to find mineral deposits. So tell me, mister mining analyst: do you think these guys had to float a bunch of shares on an exchange riddled with fraud, then poop out drill results every 4 months so that a bunch of crooks in investment houses could puke shares into market and clip the warrant coupon, then wash rinse repeat for six fucking years til the deposit was proven out and the original investors had been diluted into oblivion?

Or is this a case where centrally-planned economies are more successful than free markets?

And what does that mean for your outlook for future gold production?

Friday, July 19, 2013

Friday News


So last night, the Nikkei got puked hard, and the story was that a bunch of "foreigners" (read: US hedge fund coke addicts) puked futures.

There's a Japanese election this weekend, and Abe is expected to win more power, which will mean Wall Street will expect massive reforms by Monday, which will mean the yen will get puked hard and the Nikkei will get bought hard and all this will bleed over to massive swings in the S&P and USTs and gold for utterly no fucking reason whatsoever because hedge funds are fucking idiot meth heads who puke into the bid and blow through the ask for no reason.

That's the stage for Monday.

Now here's the news:


BI - As Josh says, here's your fucking great rotation, bitch! US equities are seeing inflows. Now do you still have that list I asked you to make? That list of all the clowns who said after two days "oh, there's no 'great rotation', it's all a lie, the US is doomed etc"? Okay, you can now unsubscribe from all of them.


IKN - US dollar chart. Here, let me show it to you:

Can you show me where the US dollar is collapsing? Cos all I see is a horizontal trend.


Ritholtz - the doom narrative has failed. Quote:
A large source of angst is from those who missed the 146% rally to all time highs. Sell offs can be painful, but the mathematics of mean reversion are inescapable. Asset classes eventually recover, but if you fail to participate in a generational rally, it will haunt your compounded returns forever. Cullen implies that (beyond high unemployment) this might be the source of this angst.

But there is a deeper, more fundamental reason for the unfocused rage and misdirected anger: The failure of the narratives that have been driving much of economics, investing and politics. As John Kenneth Galbraith famously said, “Faced with the choice between changing one’s mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof.” Rather than accepting certain unpleasant realities, many participants have contorted themselves into a painful waiting game. They are “busy on the proof.”
Now read the whole thing.


Michael Shaoul - Spain trade balance and exports. Again, Germany is doomed.


Michael Shaoul - Italy industrial orders May 2013. Best he can says is "Italy is getting less bad".


BI - SocGen meth addict says the yen vomit to 110 starts Monday. As I said, some fucking crack-addled morons will puke yen in the Sunday overnight. Expect insanity on the markets that will eventually trend back to reality.


Reuters - China frees up lending rates in major reform. I wonder how much of a story this is. Maybe I should check what Bishop's said on the topic. Here's a quote for now:

China's central bank removed controls on bank lending rates, effective Saturday, in a long-awaited move that signals the new leadership's determination to carry out market-oriented reforms.

The move gives commercial banks the freedom to compete for borrowers, a reform the People's Bank of China (PBOC) said will help lower financial costs for companies. Previously, the lending floor was 70 percent of the benchmark lending rate.

However, the central bank left a ceiling on deposit rates unchanged at 110 percent of benchmark rates, avoiding for now what many economists see as the most important step Beijing needs to take to free up interest rates.

The latest step underscores Beijing's resolve to start fixing distortions in its financial system and the economy more broadly as it tries to shift from exports- and investment-led growth to more consumption-led activity.

Some analysts said cheaper credit could help support the economy, which has seen year-on-year growth fall in nine of the last 10 quarters.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the case for Brazil. Basically, Josh says "blah blah blah" and forgets about the how the cost of credit strangles EMs. Still, it's a decent enough argument for me to pass it on to you.


Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - here's what happens when you buy Brazil down 20%. Okay, fine. the long-term trend for EMs is up. In that case, Josh, given a definite percentage of EM wealth generation goes into gold, are you now bullish gold? Hm? Are you? Like the gold now, do you?


Bonddad - Chile and Peru keep rates steady. They're two commodity-focused EMs worth watching for proof of the commodity/EM supercycle continuing. Or not.


Mineweb - Indian gold exports dive 70% in June. Yes. Read that again. Gold exports. Seems by choking off gold imports, the Indian government has destroyed value-added manufacturing in the gold jewelry industry. Here, let me quote some stuff for you:

According to Vipul Shah, chairman of the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council, ``Exports declined drastically in June as there was a shortage of raw material for jewellery manufacturing. Our main demand is that we should be provided gold on easy terms.''

Stating that it has been very difficult to get stocks for manufacturing jewellery, Shah said jewellery exports are likely to be hit and decline by up to 20% in FY14 as a consequence of the gold shortage.

He added that if the current situation prevailed, it would be disastrous for the entire industry and bring in large scale unemployment.

India exported $39 billion worth of precious gems and jewellery in 2012-13.
Interesting unintended consequence, no?


BI - Krugman on China. Sorry, I disagree. He's arguing "middle income trap" when he should be looking at gross misallocation of capital.


Mineweb - huge demand for physical gold has more than countered ETF sales. I won't read any stupid fucking article on this topic unless it's centered on an interview with GFMS and WGC people. Why? Because these are the guys who care about the data; everyone else just spouts off disinfo from Zerohedge. In this case, they've got Marcus Grubb on the line, so it's worth reading.

Friday videos - The Payolas' "Eyes of a Stranger"


Dunno about you foreign muck, but to us Canadians, these singles were all summer music. Thus the posting them now.



Thursday, July 18, 2013

Daniela Cambone interviews a bunch of fucking nutcases thus setting back gold investing 5 years


So, as noted in the comments today, for some reason Kitco thought they had to go to "Freedom Fest" to interview a bunch of fucking nutcases.

"Freedom Fest" can be summed up with this one photo:


It's apparently some sort of fucking echo-chamber festival of the lunatic right-wing.

Kinda like Burning Man: what you do is take Burning Man, you see, then you remove all the sex and drugs and music and happiness and hot chixxx and more sex, and you replace all that good stuff with a handful of illiterate unbathed poverty-stricken variably-dentitioned Cletus McHayseeds walking around from booth to booth, with vacant looks on their faces, wishing wistfully to themselves that they hadn't blown the last of their retirement money on shitty fucking gold stocks cos they'd really like to buy all these stupid books that the fruitcakes here want to sell them.

But I guess you want details, so we'll give you the fucking details.

Let's start at the top and fall rapidly the fuck downhill, shall we?

Here's Daniela Cambone interviewing Steve Forbes:



WHAT THE FUCK IS THE POINT OF INTERVIEWING STEVE FUCKING FORBES?

The guy was a fucking laughing stock of the Republican Party. Get that? The party of Michelle Bachmann, Sarah Palin, and about fifty or a hundred nutcases at state and federal level who talk "freeduhm" on the one hand and then turn around and demand forced trans-vaginal ultrasounds and mandatory carrying of rape babies to term.

That party.

Steve Forbes was a laughing stock among those people.

Thank you Kitco for making thousands, hundreds, perhaps even dozens of people (whatever's left of your viewership) even less the fuck informed than they were before they tuned in and watched this assclown.

Next, Daniela interviews Senator Rand Paul:



WHAT THE FUCK IS THE POINT OF INTERVIEWING RAND FUCKTWAT FARTSMELL LIMPDICK THE FUCK PAUL FOR FUCK'S SAKE?

His daddy's lost a fortune on his "all silver, all gold, all miners, all the time" investment portfolio. His daddy made a fucking assclown fool out of himself asking Ben Bernanke "is gold money?" when he could have instead asked Ben for a quick primer on fucking Economics 101, which he has no fucking clue about despite having conned a bunch of mouth-breathing Cletuses to vote him into office where he's supposed to not be fucking destroying the fucking economy with his own trans-galactic fucking incompetence.

And little Rand is but a shadow of his assclown daddie.

What an utter fucking waste of time. I feel so fucking sorry for the poor guy who has to do the video editing in the hotel suite at night when he could be watching... fuck I dunno, cheap hotel porn or something.

And it gets better. By that I mean it gets worse.

Now Daniela is stuck interviewing the man who's such a great fucking cunt that even his fucking mouth is a fucking cunt which has a fucking cunt all of its own. In fact he's cunts all the way down to subatomic level. He's cunts so far down that the scientific community had to invent a new kind of quark, the "cunt quark", out of which all matter forming him arises.

Yes, it's Doug Casey:



THE FACT THAT GOLD WENT DOWN IS MARVELOUS?!?!?

Did he, um...

Did...

No.

No, I know the answer is no.

But I still have to fucking ask.

DID DOUG FUCKING CASEY, THE MOST BRILLIANT FUCKING GENIUS IN THE KNOWN UNIVERSE, WHO IS SO FUCKING SMART THAT HE INSPIRES LEGIONS OF ASS-KISSING CLOWNS TO CONSIDER THE GLORIOUS AYN RAND HERSELF AS BUT A MINOR APPENDIX AND APOCRYPHA TO THE TRANSCENDENT AND INEFFABLE GENIUS THAT IS HE, TELL HIS FUCKING IDIOT FLOCK OF IGNORANT SHEEP TO PERHAPS GET OUT OF GOLD, AND GOLD MINERS, AS GOLD WENT DOWN FROM $1900 TO $1200, AND AS HIS FAVOURITE STOCKS COLLAPSED 95% OR MORE?

Oh sweet merciful Antichrist.

The voices in my head are screaming now.

But I have to go on. Because next, Daniela interviews some fucking other guy:



WHO THE FUCK IS THIS CLOWN!!!!

Apparently, he's from something called "The Foundation for Economic Education". The name translates from typical assclown doublespeak into plain English as "The Foundation For Economic Bullshit".

He asks about "whether the US is Rome".

Is he suggesting the United States is an arrogant expansionist empire ruled by a vicious hateful plutocracy of stinking rich ultra-conservative homosexual pedophiles who consider the masses to be nothing but disgusting slaves, worth little more than food? I could get behind that.

But no! He says the US is a decaying empire, and... the S&P at all time highs is proof of... that? I dunno. Apparently, the US is going to collapse, therefore own gold. Cuz... communist China is great... something something.

Oh, he also says that people should take back edumacation from the State. Hey, I'm a rabid, hard-core paleo-conservative home-schooler myself, and yet even I know that when some assclown fucktard like this talks about "taking edumacation back from the State" he really means getting rid of evomalution and sociamalism, and instead bashing people's kids over the head with Ludwig Von Fucking Mises and the more child-rapey and baby-slaughtery parts of the Bible.

And yet?

It goes the fuck on.

Here's Daniela Cambone interviewing Keith Fitz-Gerald:



BLAH BLAH MONEY PRINTING BLAH BLAH CORRUPT GOVERNMENT BLAH BLAH ENTITLEMENT

Here she is interviewing some queertard from "Reason TV", which I assume is some fucking YouPorn channel somewhere:



WE HAVE TO REDUCE THE SIZE, SCOPE, AND SPENDING OF GOVERNMENT!!!1!

Here she is interviewing some guy named Mark Skousen:



My response:



What an utter fucking waste of time, bandwidth, electrons, negentropy, and the entirety of existence and being, from the formation of the universe right up until this very point in time.

If I were Daniela, and I was told to go to some assclown conference like this, at a bare minimum I'd have made sure I first stole enough money from my employer to pay for a great fucking huge baggie of PCP-spiked biker meth to get me the fuck through this.

Okay, she probably can't steal very much from Kitco, but at least she could maybe lift some stuff from the drug store. Dextromethorphan gives you a fantastic dissociative fugue, where you don't care what the fuck is happening to you and any old idiotic blather just fades into the background noise; maybe add in some salvia for a bit of the giggles as well?

Take notes for next time, Daniela. Dextromethorphan - any DM cough syrup, read the Wikipedia article, drink a half-bottle at a time - and for the icing on the trip, if not salvia, then maybe some other mild plant- or fungus-based hallucinogen. Go find the local head shop and ask if they have anything legal; these new fancy jungle drugs are coming in faster than the government can ban them.

That will get you through literally anything. Someone can perform intra-abdominal surgery on you and you'll smile all the way thru. Because you won't care anymore. Your soul just vanishes away to a happy place, and stays away for a few months til it's safe to come back.

Anyway, Kitco could have done the world a service by giving "Freeduhm Fest" a pass, in favour of maybe taking a fucking flight to Mauritania and interviewing the dude who organizes the fucking dinner menu at the Tasiast commissary.

Serious.

I would have learned so much more.

Blog stats provide more padding-out content


And today on the Daniela Cambone google search incoming traffic parade....



She does have good fashion sense, and I hear she likes Lady Gaga.

Minera IRL - does the sucking all end now?


Is this the part where Wyatt Earp kicks down the door of the rowdy saloon, steps in, fires his shotgun into the air, and yells out "I'm Wyatt Earp! It all ends now"?



Why did TD all of a sudden decide to vacuum up a bunch of IRL shares at noon? Is it because they have so darn much respect for Canaccord's buy calls?

310,000 shares isn't that significant for a 20-cent stock, but even still given this was a dead fish floating in stagnant waters for so long, and we know that it won't move until a significant event occurs that retail is going to be the last to find out about, it piques my interest.

UPDATE: at 3:30 it's now 515,000 shares. All bought by TD. I guess that significant event is imminent, and TD found out about it already? The other alternative is they still have suckers willing to buy junior miner reccies.

Some noonday noos



Chart of the Day - how does the current rally rank? Here, here's how it ranks:

Of course, the doomsayer's response is "oh, they're mixing up secular and cyclical advances". Which begs the question of why you'd say the US isn't in a secular advance right now, given EMs are failing and the commodity market has died off.


Reuters - Greece approves German gas chamber strategy. Big pop today in Greek stocks (dammit I should have grabbed that NBG at $3.25 when it felt so much like a good idea!), probably the result of Greece finally approving the next step of the German-backed "economic revitalization" plan: firing everyone in the country who still has a job.


der Spargel - can austerity save Portugal? Answer: no, you fucktards, no. Again, when countries like Ireland and Portugal play along nicely and do all they're told, and their economies are still destroyed, it proves that austerity is a moronic strategy.


Reuters - monsoon likely to pick up. Here's a quote, with the relevant part highlighted:

Seven weeks into this year's monsoon, rains have so far been average or above, suggesting India will avoid a drought. This will mean higher rural incomes in the world's second most populous country, improving sales of everything from cars AND GOLD to refrigerators.

See what I did there?


Mining.com - African exploration activity dying off. Which begs the question of where is all the gold going to come from.


Mineweb - US Silver cuts staff. I remember last time US Silver was at 64 cents! It was before the consolidation! Ha ha ha they suck! Hecla dodged a bullet, and the US Silver investors who voted against the deal have proven themselves to be utter morons.


BI - full-page gold ad in the New York Times for the love of Christ. Here, let me show it to you:


Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Let's check in yet again on that "MASSIVE REPUDIATION OF DEBT AS A DISHONEST SYSTEM IS COMING APART AT THE SEAMS"


Let's see if that dishonest system is still coming apart at the seams, no? Cos it was on June 24th.


Nope, it's not.



Not here neither. Lookin' pretty good again, actually.



A bit weaker here, but still the seams don't really look to be "coming apart". Let's zoom out for some perspective, shall we?


Yup, looks okay there.

I guess if you get your news from Max Keiser, Jim Kunstler and Zerohedge, you'll be very susceptible to interpreting a three-day "taper tantrum" as the long-awaited, promoted-by-goldbugs "end of the world" where everyone massively repudiates debt.

Maybe it's just PTSD shellshock from 2007-2008? Then again, how long should it take before someone fucking moves on into the bright new world of the future? Then again, how can they when they get all their perspective from doomclowns?

S&P 500



$VIX can stay low for a long time. No longer works much as an indicator anymore, since it's become securitized - I guess everyone just clips a "fear premium coupon" nowadays.



Bullish % still ain't that bullish.



Still room for improvement before you get a top.



Still room for improvement before you get a top.

A couple things for tonight



So apparently gold took a faceplant, and all the little goldbugs will probably blame Bernanke, when of course all the smart people like me know that gold's fate is actually tied to wealth creation in India and China, of course also with a little doom emanating from GLD selloffs.

BTW Otto, okay you convinced me. I bought some of your dumb Rio Alto today when I saw the heavy volume of buying (looked like a couple institutional pops there too, eh?) despite gold (and BTO, ha ha) going down at the same time. It's certainly worth more than $2.30. So please allow me to jinx the hell out of that stock now that I'm on board.

Here's two newsbits for the evening:

Michael Shaoul - June US housing data. Homebuilders, and the rest of the stock market, didn't tank today, and it's probably because they all took a look under the hood at the data and agreed with him that "Multi-Family starts [dropping] -26.71% to 236K from 322K [...] is simply not a credible piece of data given that a collapse in multi-family housing activity of this magnitude would not have gone unnoticed outside of the walls of the Census Bureau".

FT Alphaville - when does a Chinese growth deceleration become a crisis. Broad overview of the doomsayers' points of view, but I happen to think that the Chinese central command know what they're doing, since it's their lives on the line, after all. So maybe reading the article is a waste of time.

And again, an opinion piece



Mention it again so you might go read it:

Der Spargel - Swiss banks make money easy to hide. An interview with the Swiss bank whistleblower.

And note the guy says Snowden is a hero.
"It's important that there are people like Edward Snowden, who speak the truth and point out systemic problems."

Why? Seriously, why should anyone stick their fucking neck out for the people, when the people let their "elected leaders" arrest, imprison, and/or kill off anyone who threatens the kleptocratic plutocracy, while letting the thieves get off scot-free?

As this guy notes, the banks are all involved in money-laundering and tax evasion. And yet the US government didn't even bother to put anyone from HSBC in jail. All they did was impose a little fine - which gets paid off by the shareholders, essentially.

These banks were not only involved in tax evasion and money laundering; they actually fit the exact definition of "corrupt enterprises" under RICO.

And yet when Falciani passed info on to Sarkozy and Merkel, they didn't even give a shit. They don't want to stop the people's money being stolen by tax evaders, and they don't want to stop criminals (probably including a large number of German weapons dealers) from laundering their wealth.

If only people knew the difference between an "elected representative" and an "elected despot".


Some morning news



Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - 361 Capital weekly research briefing. Whole bunch of charts. Small caps and NASDAQ, and hey whatever happened to the massive repudiation of debt?


I was told there was a massive repudiation of debt! Where is that massive repudiation of debt? Cos junk's not showing a massive repudiation of debt. That guy who was screaming about "massive repudiation of debt", has he suddenly clammed up about the massive repudiation of debt now that debt isn't massively repudiating anymore?


Bespoke - homebuilders diverge from sentiment. BTW, I was watching a bit of Cramer this morning, and he saidd while homebuilders are good, he wants the market to realize they'll still be selling homes at a marginally higher interest rate.


Bespoke - US and European auto sales are oceans apart. Is this why Ford and Magna tanked yesterday?


Der Spargel - Swiss banks make money easy to hide. An interview with the Swiss bank whistleblower.


Bonddad - India raises interest rates to stem Rupee's decline. Either their currency collapses or they have to strangle off their economy. Another case of EM end-of-cycle breakdown.


FT beyond brics - Yahoo's Alibaba numbers. So I guess Yahoo tanks (who the fuck even uses them anymore?) when they have to sell their Alibaba stake? Buying stock in someone who has to give away their cash cow doesn't seem that smart an idea.


Mining.com - pipeline activity is zero. Some charts.

Tuesday, July 16, 2013

some news


More news.

Michael Shaoul - hey look I'm on TV. He's on Bloomberg TV again.

WSJ China Realtime - an illustrated guide to China's slowing economy. Bill Bishop said the article was great.

Bloomberg - Ponzi risk in China. Both Bill Bishop and Michael Shaoul recommended this article.

NY Times - Looking past China's GDP. Bill Bishop says an interesting leak shows reforms are ahead. I say an interesting leak is when there's blood in my pee.

Sorry, couldn't resist.

An even more interesting leak is when the blood in my pee is someone else's.

Really couldn't resist that one.

Mineweb - expectations of surplus prompt copper price downgrade. Maybe the blood in my pee is theirs.

Mineweb - government urges Indians not to buy gold. Or maybe it's goldbug blood.

Qz, the Middle Persian word for a joke that destroys the flow of a comedy program - how India sucks.

Well, this looks interesting now


The fundamentals still look like ass, but this chart is actually looking less miserable. Above the short-term EMA and above the Bollinger mean, and going in the wrong direction - up.

As if nobody believes the bullshit about $800 gold from the guys who back in January were still targeting $1600 gold, ahem.

Dunno why it's happening, but it's something that hasn't happened in a long time, and it makes me think things don't suck now.

Then again maybe it's only the start of a gap fill to $130 and the SMA(50).

Monday, July 15, 2013

Some news


Blah blah blah now here's stuff:

Calculated Risk - Q2 GDP tracking 1%. FOMC will revise down their forecasts, taper will be postponed til next year, and we'll get a nice Q4 market voom.

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - Second-half stats you should be aware of. Twelve out of fifteen times that the S&P was positive in the first half of the year, it was positive in the second half.

Daily Beast - America is not dooooomed. It's only right-wing anti-Obama wackaloons who still play the dooooom card.

Michael Shaoul - Advance retail sales for June. Long and steady uptrend, still looks good, I've gotta wonder how much of an Obama-hating clown you have to be to ignore a nice steady constant unwavering long uptrend.

der Spargel - Germany's ailing infrastructure. Those morally and racially inferior Germans! They've unwisely blown all their money on stupid investments on Spanish resorts and Irish banks, and now the cupboard is bare when their highways and schools desperately need repair. They've let the entire nation fall to pieces, and now they'll be asking the EU for a fucking handout. Do you see now what an fiscally imprudent, weak-minded and morally inferior race the Germans are?

WSJ - Tokyo shares get second look. If we ever see anything significant coming out of Japan and not just good feelings, I imagine that will provide a great boost to the world economy, them being the third largest nation in it.

FT beyond brics - China GDP: where's the demand?

Economist - Chinese growth targets. They're not as religious about them anymore.

Mining.com - Ranking Russia by metal reserves. Weird - it says they have a larger world share of gold reserves than of PGM reserves.

Mineweb - Gold supply surplus could send prices plummeting. Poorly-written article; if you search elsewhere, you'll figure out that some dude with a funny name at a meaningless French investment bank is saying he doesn't know who's going to buy the tremendous ETF outflows that have already been happening and will probably stop sometime. Also, just in February they were on record with a $1625 gold call, while getting the outlook for lead (Pb) egregiously wrong.

But I guess you have to interview every meaningless irelevant clown that you can, when you work in internet media. I mean, you could say no, but then how to continue to beat the anti-gold story like a dead horse?

Sunday, July 14, 2013

In preparation for next week, let's check on the goldbug scene



So let's do one of them posts with charts in it.


GLD is still in a downward trend, but is bounced against its Bollinger mean.



Silver? Same thing.

As an aside, this sort of sucks even compared to the China and India ETFs:



They've both done a decent job of not sucking as bad as the PMs, and I half expect that the people on Wall Street who aren't goldbug Rethuglicunt morons understand that gold demand depends on India and China.

So are those two charts bottomed out? China's printed a higher high, though that might have just been on official comments. You know how it is: hedge fund clowns love to buy something just because there's a story on Reuters.

But India? They're conclusively boned, with increasing inflation, an unmanageable trade deficit, dwindling currency reserves, collapsing consumer demand, and an incompetent bunch of idiots in charge.

So fundamentally, India out of the picture and (as far as I've heard) no significant change in GLD flows looks bad for gold. Or at least it doesn't make me think it'll get amazingly better anytime soon.

Now let's look at the miners:


$HUI again is just futzing around with its Bollinger mean. Still a downtrend til it becomes an uptrend.



GDXJ? Same damn thing. Though of course it's an ETF full of chickenshit like GUY that will never be a mine.



The silver miners look vaguely better, but maybe that's because there's less garbage in the ETF?

And now we can look at a few real miners:


Argonaut is still below its SMA(50), but looks to be retesting a breakout over the SMA. A promising first move. Not putting much stock in it though.



B2 looks about the healthiest of any of them, though long-term it's still in a downward channel.



Even Fortuna seems like it did most of its puking back in April. It's bottoming, at least.



Nu-Gold also seems like it wants to draw out a bottom.

Do I want to buy any of these? No. But at least the charts look interesting now.

Despite India sucking, and everyone now paying attention to China's problems, I don't see gold puking below $1180. I think you'd need a lower low in gold to make anyone puke these stocks any more than they have been.

So now we can get reflexive and ask: do other people think the same way? That gold & silver won't puke any more, and therefore this is about as low as the gold & silver miners go? If so, then I think now is when you should see some accumulation going on.

My criterion is, I want to buy shit in a fucking uptrend, cos I don't want to feel like a fucking moron. Let me know when the miners go into a real uptrend.

Only three things to read on a Sunday


Nobody posts much on the weekends so there's little for me to pass on to you. Suffice to say, the jury's still out on the PMs; and the US stock market is surging to new highs but you've got to wonder what earnings season will bring.

So here's three bits of news:


Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the difference between traders and economists. Very good points made: it doesn't matter what your economic model says if the market isn't buying it right now. In the end it boils down to madness/wisdom of crowds.


Reuters - crisis-hit consumers shun Italian summer sales. Not good, but then again we knew it wasn't good.


Krugman - the monetary debate: enter Chewbacca. I like him even more now that he has used "the Chewbacca defense" in an article. For those of you who don't know, here's the best YouTube I could find on the topic:



And that really is the level of argumentation you see from the right-wing wackaloons. Because it was never about economics or monetary policy or inflation: it's about how they hate Barack Hussein Obama.

Unfortunately I've read my ten "free" articles for the month from NYT, so I guess they get no more exposure from me til August. Great business model, guys!

And completely off topic, here's the best of Ollie Williams' Blaccuweather Forecast:



IT'S GONNA RAIN!!!