Calculated Risk -
preliminary May consumer sentiment is awesome. Quit listening to clowns who say the US is doooomed. They've been saying that since S&P 666.
Bespoke -
S&P P/E ratio. Yes, in one year it's gone up from 14 to 16. But here's the long-term chart:
In a secular bear market the P/E trend is down. Good, we see that in the chart. But in a secular bull the P/E trend is
up: In Jan 1998 it was 23, for example, and the US stock market was still
very sensible and
not at all bubbly in Jan 1998 (go look up some late-90s bubble stocks' charts if you don't believe me). So while a fundamental basis for a stock market advance requires that earnings to go up (and commodity input deflation will help there), the multiple still has far to go as well.
Ritholtz -
give the market the benefit of the doubt. As he says,
one major reason stocks will continue to advance is the fact that there is an “enormous amount of professionals who are under-invested.” They will be “forced into the market” if they want to keep their jobs[.]
Idiot goldbug bloggers have no such luxury. They can stay being wrong forever, all they lose is their wife and kids and house... and self-respect... and eventually, sanity and hygeine.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) -
In which Josh Brown destroys the clowns who took issue with him destroying the 1999 comparison. Great quote from him here, emphasis mine:
Most of the negativity has clearly come from those who've gotten the market wrong for years now and they are misinterpreting my post as though it's some kind of "buy" call. I understand the emotion, it's got to be tough to have such a rigidly negative outlook and to watch stocks day after day invalidate your core beliefs.
Now please read those underlined phrases again.
Does that sound like anyone you know? If so, here's the last time* I give this advice:
Quit reading them.
* - no, it's probably not the last time. I care too much.
FT Alphaville -
Shinzo Abe is like Superman or something. They note, though, that Japanese GDP figures tend to flop all over the place; this might mean that we'll see data in the next month or two that suddenly turns the market significantly less bullish on Japan. And since the Japanese market is flying up on US hedge fund inflows, it could just as easily puke 25% on hedge fund
outflows when the cokeheads see one piece of nonconfirming data. So be warned.
FT Beyond Brics -
emerging market consumers take a breather. I've been worrying about a TFP wall ending the EM bull; but maybe we should worry more about a credit wall? As in, when do we see the next Asian Tigers Crisis? Hey, maybe if the commodity collapse continues, it'll cause a banking crisis - like somewhere very commodity-focused, like South America.
Mineweb -
Nevada to increase taxes on mines. Just in case you were thinking of throwing your money into NCU to avoid the gold & silver armageddon.
Mineweb -
anti-gold campaign at play in India? Yes, obviously the government wants to decrease gold purchases, since that so strongly affects their balance of trade. However, I think the only way this could succeed is if the government magically created a banking industry that served the countryside, and
also brainwashed the population into suddenly putting faith in the corrupt and incompetent plutocracy. And remember, this is a government that doesn't know how to build roads or predict monsoons: how can you expect them to alter the psychological basis of traditional Indian asset allocation? So, to me the bigger impacts on Indian gold demand will be (positive) a lot of upcoming marriages and (negative) their shitty stalling GDP.
BI -
Caterpillar's CEO is a fucking cunt. And as Max Nisen says, good fucking luck finding qualified staff to work at your factory when you expect them to work for nothing. So fuck you, Doug Oberhelman, you fucking Nazi cunt.
Toronto Star -
Rob Ford smokes crack. It's the fun story that's exploded across the internet, if it were true it'd certainly explain Rob Ford's behaviour, and I guarantee you the $200,000 will be raised to buy that video, whereupon anyone who still supports Ford will have to thereafter refer to him as "Fatty the Crackhead".
Most of the suburban twats who voted for him will be happy to re-elect Fatty the Crackhead in the next mayoral election, though. Because most of them smoke crack too.