Friday, August 26, 2016
Vice - Avril Lavigne was killed off and replaced with a doppleganger.
OMG! It must be true!
Naw, I only stumbled across this while searching on the internet for the shrunken remnants of Avril's career.
at 12:45 PM
Thursday, August 25, 2016
270towin.com - for all your 2016 election reality.
Holy crap. Trump is now only ahead by 2% in South Carolina. Last time a Democrat president won that, it was Jimmy Carter.
Clinton's also ahead in North Carolina now, which is probably not much of a surprise because they'll have heard of her vice presidential nominee. Clinton/Kaine is up 19% in Virginia.
Florida might even swing away from Rubio: his nobody Democratic opponent is now only 3% behind him.
There's going to be a lot of upsets in 2016 if Trump continues to earn only 1% support among black voters. Cuz, see, some black people are allowed to vote.
I wonder how Greg Mankiw acts towards his black students, btw?
Greg Mankiw - why I won't vote Trump. Quote:
This morning, John Harwood of CNBC and the New York Times asked for my view of Donald Trump, which John then summarized on his Twitter feed. Here is the full answer I gave him:
He will not be getting my vote.
Because his economic policies are nonsensical? Because the last time one of these people took over a modern country, it ended with him blowing his own brains out in a bunker under the burning ruins of his capital city?
No. Simply because Mankiw is still the bitch of the Republican kleptocrat establishment:
I have Republican friends who think that things couldn't be worse than doubling down on Obama policies under Hillary Clinton.
Which Obama policies? The ones in favour of economic growth, the ones in favour of universal health care, or the ones in favour of social justice? Doubling down on any of those policies is bad, according to you?
And which Republican friends? The ones like Mitt Romney, who said 47% of Americans were his enemy? The Mitt Romney who hides hundreds of millions of dollars in offshore tax havens, who Greg Mankiw was the economic adviser to? The Mitt Romney who was too much of a chickenshit pussy to compete for his party's ticket this year?
And, like them, I am no fan of the left's agenda of large government and high taxes.
Really, Greg? Are you more in favour of an agenda of cutting all government services to destroy the economy, and eliminating taxes on the rich so that they can stripmine the country for dirt and hide all their money in offshore tax havens?
Would you mind explaining how an economist can find these policies sensible in any way?
Or are you sensible enough to not believe this, but you're only saying them because you want to stay in the Republican party mandarins' good books for when they pick a hopefully more sensible candidate in 2020? Or are you just trying to ensure that your textbooks, the first 80 pages of which are useless Republican propaganda, remain in use at all Republican-state universities?
Basically, are you saying you're in favour of eliminating government and handing tax cuts to the rich because you're an incompetent idiot, or just because you're a cheap five-dollar whore of the kleptocratic elite?
And then there are issues of temperament. I am not a psychologist, so I cannot figure out what Mr. Trump's personal demons are. But he does not show the admirable disposition that I saw in previous presidents and presidential candidates I have had the honor to work for.
Really? Admirable disposition of previous candidates you have had the honor to work for? You mean like this guy?:
That's an "admirable disposition"?
Or, again, are you just trying to let the kleptocrats in the Republican party know that your tight ass is still up for sale?
Wednesday, August 24, 2016
Calculated Risk - chemical activity barometer suggests accelerated business activity.
Seems like a good time to raise rates a quarter point, then.
And also to quit piddling your frilly pink panties, Whitey.
FRB Atlanta - GDP Now.
It's at 3.6% right now, and residential real investment has picked up, so you're pretty much guaranteed another quarter-point hike in September.
That might be a reason the S&P is in a holding pattern and the hedgies are fleeing gold miners.
at 9:03 AM
There was a guy on BNN this morning talking about gold miners.
He noted that something like 20% of the float of most miners is held within ETFs, such as GDX and ZJG.to.
In the case of B2 Gold, he says it's close to 30%.
That means that ETF flows are going to drive these stocks, and I wouldn't like that if I was in the miners right now, because the minute these hedge fund clowns pile out of the stocks, their prices can go right back down to where they were.
In the long run, though, this is good, because it means if you've already sold off, then in a few months you might be able to buy back your BTO for something like $2.50. Or less.
But for the time being, buying gold miners on fundamentals is a fucking boneheaded idea.
Tuesday, August 23, 2016
After the last 2 Trump posts, I decided to go to Stonekettle Station to see what Jim Wright's been up to. I guess the weather up there in Alaska is too nice so he's making hay while the sun shines instead of blogging.
But damn, he's written some insightful stuff on Trump. Exhibit 1:
the last time one of these people took over a modern country it ended with him blowing his own brains out in a bunker under the burning ruins of his capital city.
Well... go Godwin or go home, I guess. Exhibit 2:
His entire life is a dick measuring contest. He has to be the smartest, the richest, he has to have the biggest cock, the hottest girl, the best car, the tallest building. Anything less is a personal insult. Anything less makes him feel small and insecure.
Which is so insightful that it makes you think maybe Wright is one of them weirdo get-in-your-head FBI psychology types, like Vincent D'Onofrio on Law & Order.
As far as Clinton's running-mate Tim Kaine, btw, Jim's got some useful insight there too that most of us don't have:
Kaine has spent his entire professional and political life fighting for civil rights. In a lot of ways he’s done the things Bernie Sanders has only talked about.Don’t get me wrong here, I’m not bashing Sanders. I’m not. I’m asking you to look a little deeper, hell, a lot deeper.
What I’m saying is if you actually look at Kaine in depth, as Clinton obviously did, you’ll see that she is very much listening. Perhaps that’s why Bernie Sanders himself endorsed her.
Maybe, if you look at Tim Kaine, you’ll see Bernie didn’t sell you out after all. Maybe, just maybe, you were right about him all along.
Look here, as a lawyer, Kaine spent two decades representing poor people who had been discriminated against in housing and employment based on race and disability. He won landmark cases and changed the law regarding fair housing, employment, and representation for minorities – and a lot of that was pro bono.
That’s the kind of thing Sanders talks about regularly, isn’t it? Kaine didn’t just talk about it, he did it.
He changed the world for the better.
He made the world a better place for a hell of a lot of people. Down in the trenches and the tenements where it counts.
Kaine took that experience and taught others. Literally. He taught legal ethics at the University of Richmond School of Law for six years. He was a founding member of the Virginia Coalition to End Homelessness. Again, these are very things Bernie talks about. Kaine is out there doing them.
Again, that's the kind of "I didn't know that" stuff that makes me want to read a blog.
In case you're wondering who's going to be the next Trump for the Republican party, don't worry. Matt Taibbi has already silverback-assraped The Next One into a soft white foam:
Rolling Stone - Curt Schilling is the next Donald Trump. The derp is strong with this one:
More recently, Schilling worked at ESPN, where he was paid $2.5 million a year to be an analyst.
He needed the money. Soon after his playing career ended, he blew his $50 million fortune on a failed video game venture, a fiasco that cost Rhode Island taxpayers $75 million.
After that, he fell back into the ESPN gig, which should have been easy money. For all his other qualities, Schilling is an excellent baseball analyst (although, humorously, his ex-teammate and rival Pedro Martinez is better).
But Curt couldn't keep his job. As is usually the case with people who can't hold on to gravy-train situations, the culprit was addiction. In Schilling's case, it wasn't booze or pills, but line-crossing political rants.
A hardcore religious conservative, Schilling can't stop posting crazy stuff online. Like Trump, he is a meme fanatic, learning much of what he knows about the world from bite-size informational crap-dumplings shared on Facebook.
He's railed against everything from evolution ("Hey clown, why don't apes still evolve into humans if that is the path?") to Hillary Clinton ("She should be buried under a jail somewhere") to Black Lives Matter (a "terrorist" group).
When Schilling compared Muslims to Nazis last summer, ESPN merely suspended him instead of canning him outright. Schilling appeared to accept responsibility, saying, "bad decisions have consequences and this was a bad decision in every way on my part."
To be fair, that's not really Ann Coulter level wharrgarbl. I don't know if he can get elected anywhere when he's only clocking in at about #300 on the Republican Idiot Rankings.
And here's the political analysis:
Having proven incapable of running a business, being a good steward of either his own money or the taxpayers', or holding down the world's cushiest job, Schilling naturally decided to get into politics.
Don't bet against him winning a Senate seat in my home state of Massachusetts, either. His would be a victory for the cause of ignorance and tone-deafness perhaps even exceeding Trump's capture of the Republican nomination.
Schilling's biggest political crime isn't his ranting about subjects he knows nothing about, his insistence on arguing science with scientists, or his pathological touchiness about being labeled a racist even as he makes endless unprovoked sorties into explosive racial/ethnic controversies.
No, the baffling thing is how miserable he is in the face of great fortune.
Understanding that there's a distinction between being smart and being educated, Schilling got to be filthy rich without being either, thanks to that winning genetic lottery ticket hanging off his right shoulder.
270towin - Trump redefining "sucking". Most recent polls say he's down 52-38 in Rubio's Florida, down 19% in Virginia, down 4 in Ohio... doesn't he know which states he needs to win to become President?
Strangely though he's up 20% in Utah, which I guess must have something to do either with high rates of incest or the long-term effects of heavy metals exposure on the brain.
Monday, August 22, 2016
Still don't think I can post my own gifs, so I'll have to steal a chart from Jojo:
And today GDX has dropped to its SMA(50).
The question is whether it rebounds from there, or doesn't. And probably most of the people who bought GDX over the past few months are concerned about that, and they weren't concerned about that while the miners were on a tear, so it's an introduction of a new downside concern; and so the market's psychology has set up a situation where any break through SMA(50) means a possible panic-puke down to something much lower.
And today's silver breakdown below its SMA(50) definitely skews probabilities in favour of that panic-puke in the miners, since you'd think miners' momentum should be led somewhat by silver.
And the US dollar has spent all month going down, yet PMs haven't advanced, and that should also suggest to market participants that their pie-in-the-sky gold story isn't a sure bet after all, which is yet more reason to puke. Gold's not supposed to move in tandem with USD, that totally throws off the Bloomberg Headline Autogenerator.
Of course if the puke doesn't happen, then that's bullish for miners. It's just that if they do puke unreasonably, that's a better point to get back into the market.
Frankly the whole broad market has been boring the shit out of me for over a week now, so I guess we won't see any new moves in any direction til September.
I was originally going to identify the September Fed meeting (and likely rate hike) as the inflection point, but that's too far away. Can we maybe see some sort of geopolitical concern crop up before then? Well, even in that case it won't happen til September because nobody's in the office to puke stocks right now.