Tuesday, April 22, 2014
OK, this is kinda funny.
Green Day's "Holiday" meets The Timelords' "Doctorin' the Tardis" meets the Doctor Who theme song.
Apparently this was a famous thing in 2011 and I missed it cos I was dicking around with shitty junior miners and reading Zerohedge like a tard.
I've spent the day doing a comparative life-cycle cost-benefit analysis for full illumination, for a decision between build-now versus a 15 year deferment.
And y'know? It's fun doing this kind of stuff. Even the engineers in my office don't seem to know how to do these sorts of analyses.
Thus it makes me look like an utter genius compared to my bosses, and thus it's so fun.
Anyway, here's some news:
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - 361 Capital weekly research briefing. Blaine Rollins is always a necessary weekly read, right up there with NDD's week-end indicators summary. So read him.
Bonddad - USTs are the surprise YTD winner. And given the Fed has asserted that US yields are going up, this is the exact opposite to what the market's supposed to be doing.
Reuters - Indian election cash restrictions to dent gold imports. Apparently bribery is so bad in election season that they have to pass laws limiting how much cash you can have on your person.
IKN - Goldman Sachs follows its $1050 gold call with... buy recommendations for gold stocks?!? Cue perplexed Jackie Chan meme:
If I get sent a copy of this GS paper by an unknown villainous copyright scofflaw, I will definitely enjoy reading it to see how they justify buying FNV or Detour in expectation of $1050 gold. Who knows, maybe the various departments at GS just don't bother talking to each other?
Or maybe GS has a few million shares of Detour that they need to unload?
Monday, April 21, 2014
I've been pretty much ignoring the sad-sack goldbug sector entirely for the past few weeks, except for the odd bit of sarcasm of course, ever since the charts broke down.
Well, I was hanging out on YouTube, and was wondering "hey, is that Brent Cook guy still alive?", so I did a search and came across this interview from about a month ago:
So, Cookie Monster is still alive, and he gives a fairly decent interview about his thoughts on the gold scene to an interviewer who's actually competent.
Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - corporate economists expect spending to increase. And thus the US economy is still going to improve.
Bonddad - the state of housing permits. Where he says "the best and most forward looking indicator, housing permits, has reversed course and trended upward in the last two months". And thus the US economy is still improving.
Calculated Risk - property tax collections above pre-recession peak. And thus the US economy is still improving.
Pass those three links on to your local doomer and ask him how the S&P is supposed to have reached a cyclical top.
IKN - me think silver look good. He thinks the chart looks buyable. Well, let's see:
Oh geez. Below $18.50, SLV loses multi-year support. And volume is dwindling, so there's no interest even at this price.
Oh geez. If you're only looking at the weekly closes, it's already about to lose multi-year support. And dwindling volume explains the lower highs. And it even failed to retake its 50-week SMA.
Last time it failed support in this sort of low-volume, lower-highs environment? April 2013. Look at it. That's the potential downside. 30% or so. What's the potential upside for this trade?
Dude, let that knife stop falling before you pick it up.
Had a bit of a kerfuffle with my computer this morning. It's cleared up now, but extra-suspiciously; so my latent paranoia means I'm now on the lookout for NSA involvement in my computer.
Because you damn well know that I'm going to be the first voice they want to silence when Obama brings in his New World Ordure.
Anyway, they haven't shut me down yet, so here's the news:
New Deal Demoncrat - last week's economic indicators. Summary:
In general, the long leading indicators again continued their 2014 trends. Treasury rates declined further below their December highs. Money supply continued its rebound, although there was a little softness for the week. Bank lending rates remain low. Only housing related data, in the form of negative real estate loans, which turned slightly negative, and mortgage applications, which improved this week, but continued poor, constitute a negative sector.Translation: quit being a fucking pussy.
The short leading indicators were generally very positive this week. Initial jobless claims had their best 4 week average since the recession. Credit spreads made another new post-recession low. Temporary jobs tied for an all-time high. Commodities were slightly positive. Gas and oil remained slightly negative, as their seasonal increase is now enough to engage the oil choke collar.
The coincident reports were more mixed. Consumer spending was positive. Rail transport was also strongly positive. Shipping was mixed. Tax withholding, however, turned negative, and steel remained negative.
This week was mixed, but with an emphasis on the positive. There are a few trouble spots (steel, real estate loans, tax withholding), but the economy seems to be in good shape for now.
Ritholtz - what's gone up might not necessarily come down. He makes the case for not being a fucking pussy just because the US market went up last year.
New Deal Demoncrat - on creeping deflation and secular stagnation. the answer is simple:
one of the primary reasons for the slow growth is the rise of austerity policies in all three countries. The standard macro-economic policy response to a recession is an increase in government spending. Using the simple GDP equation: when C (consumer spending), I (Investment) and X (net exports) all decrease, G (government spending) makes up the difference. During periods of economic slowdown, government spending has a higher mulitiple, meaning it has more of an impact; for every dollar spent more than an dollar of economic activity will result. In fact, the IMF published a paper during the crisis which demonstrated the decreased government spending in periods of economic malaise was a direct cause of the slow growth seen throughout the developed world.So thus the solution is simple.
New Deal Demoncrat - further to the previous. He points out the fundamental hypocrisy of Larry Summers:
The below quote, from Larry Summers describing his "secular stagnation" theme, in particular leapt out at me:
In 2008-09, we could have bailed out debtors, or we could have bailed out creditors. Had we bailed out debtors, the debtors could have used that bailout money to renegotiate, pay down, or pay off their debts to the creditors, and then both would be made reasonably whole. Bailing out creditors rescued them, but didn't cancel the debt, and so debtors still had to deleverage and pay off the debts, a painful and slow process.in such a situation falling wages and prices or inflation at slower-than-expected rates is likely to worsen economic performance by encouraging consumers and investors to delay spending, and to redistribute income and wealth from higher spending debtors to lower spending creditors.
At that critical juncture, none other than Larry Summers had the most powerful position possible to argue in favor of bailing out debtors, but did not do so. We chose creditors, and we've been paying the price since.
Saturday, April 19, 2014
Friday, April 18, 2014
YouTube is quickly achieving critical mass, whereupon which it will become a black hole containing all the videos that have ever been made.
To wit, for the love of fuck what the hell this is a video of Lush playing live in Japan in 1994?!?!?!?!
Must have been on TV or something?!?!?!?
Thursday, April 17, 2014
For those interested in the 1990s indie rock scene, I've come across a few fun articles:
Pitchfork - the practical lessons of Sonic Youth. Even though it's Precious Pitchfork, the author still asks a very important question: why shouldn't they have "sold out" to Geffen in 1990? After all, the cool indie labels were run by a bunch of crooks and morons who couldn't even pay their bands the royalties they earned.
Magnet - Homestead, the label that plundered indie rock. Here's Ken Katkin making the most of a bad situation:
“Because I already knew the operation was something of a criminal enterprise and was not going to really pay any artists no matter what they sold, that influenced my A&R decisions,” says Katkin. “I started to see my mission as trying to put out records that had a lot of artistic merit and weren’t likely to be huge sellers. I didn’t want to be in a situation where a band sold 50,000 copies and then got ripped off.”
Sales figures of Homestead releases around this time more typically ranged from a few hundred to a few thousand. According to Katkin, Tenenbaum cut no royalty checks to artists during his two years at the label and often neglected to provide bands with biannual accounting statements. MAGNET spoke to more than a dozen former Homestead artists for this article. Some are still seeking financial compensation; some make no claims against Homestead or Tenenbaum. Others, such as My Dad Is Dead’s Mark Edwards, say they naively signed a contract and will probably never know for sure if they’re owed money.
Here's some stuff:
New Deal Demoncrat - US economic indicators still aren't collapsing. But you go on and keep reading those ignorant fucking clowns who are calling a cyclical top. I mean, the data doesn't matter, does it?
Calculated Risk - new unemployment claims at lowest since 2007. But you go on and keep reading those ignorant fucking clowns who are calling a cyclical top. I mean, their model port performance over the past two years proves they've read the market right all along, no?
BI - Obama says "the Affordable Care Act debate is over". First he does this:
He criticized Republicans who he said "can’t bring themselves to admit that the Affordable Care Act is working," arguing that the GOP push to repeal Obamacare had come at the expense of productive conversations about creating jobs, improving the economy, and raising the minimum wage.Then he does this:
"The point is, the repeal debate is and should be over. The Affordable Care Act is working," Obama said in the White House briefing room.
Not really. But if Biden was Prez you know he would.
IKN - excellent news for the price of gold next week! Where he notes:
the news just out from Kitco that its band of self-appointed experts on the gold price has turned collectively bearish on the price of gold next week is good news indeed for those of us looking for higher gold prices.But Mickeyman had a better take on the Kitco gold price poll:
World Complex - you too can be a gold expert, where he notes that the Kitco gold price poll actually correlates pretty darn well (looks like r>.5 to me) with the previous week's price action in gold:
So what Kitco's poll is actually saying is that the price of gold went down this week.
PS: Mickeyman, wanna calculate r for that graph?