Thursday, August 21, 2014

Are the miners broken yet?


Let's check the miner charts.

GDX:


Hanging on to horizontal support but still not broken. I don't care about the SMA(50) crossover, it's bullshit.

GDXJ:


Hanging on to horizontal support too but still not broken either.

The problem is, OpEx is days away. Gold and the miners got chokeslammed on the May OpEx too, and you can see in these charts that it turned out to be a giftwrapped buy opportunity.

We still have a few days for the OpEx games to play out. I don't know why any whiteys would be short gold with the Ukraine/Gaza/Iraq stuff going on, during gold's strongest season, so I don't expect a big slam, but crap can still happen.

The million-dollar question is, will the Indians be driving gold back up in September? You've still got the monsoon harvest and Diwali to look forward to.


Kun Huang finally out of prison, sues Silvercorp (in Canada obviously)


IKN has his own "usual suspects" that he likes to keep an eye on, and I have Silvercorp.

Kun Huang, the researcher who got tossed into a Chinese prison after instigation by Silvercorp, is now suing them for defamation, false imprisonment and corruption of officials:


Globe and Mail - Canadian sues Silvercorp for false imprisonment in China. Quote:
Now, in a lawsuit filed Tuesday in the Supreme Court of British Columbia, Mr. Huang claims that Silvercorp masterminded his detention as a reprisal for his research, whose publication prompted a steep decline in the company’s share price.

Silvercorp, his court filing claims, effectively enlisted the local Chinese police as its “agent,” giving them money, encouragement and guidance “to falsely imprison and then later knowingly bring baseless criminal charges against Mr. Huang.”

I have no clue about how these sorts of cases work, but I'd be worried the court may simply accept the detention as legal under Chinese law (such as it is) and dismiss the case. Does he have to first prove the corruption before the imprisonment can be argued to be "false"?

Anyway, the Vancouver Sun has a much better story, with video too:


Vancouver Sun - Vancouver stock researcher sues BC mining firm. Quote:
A Canadian researcher who was jailed for two-and-a-half years in China for a crime he says did not happen sued a Vancouver-based mining company in B.C. Supreme Court this week for defamation, false imprisonment and corruption of foreign officials in relation to his incarceration.

Kun Huang, a 37-year-old University of B.C. graduate, was released from prison last month, then deported home to Vancouver, where he filed a claim that reads like a spy thriller. He alleges that Silvercorp Metals used its influence on public officials in China as well as financial support to punish him in retaliation for a report he contributed to that caused Silvercorp’s shares to plummet.

“As a result of Silvercorp’s intentional wrongdoing and its utilization of the (local police) as its agent, Mr. Huang ... was subjected to years of false imprisonment with predictable deleterious effects on his mental and physical health,” states the claim.

Anyway, I'm hoping that he wins and fucks Silvercorp into the ground for millions in damages.


(PS yay! This is post #4000!)

Blodget gets it


Too bad he's got trouble finding decent staff who can do proper journalism instead of just caps-lock doomery, cos Blodget gets it:

BI - the economy stinks because owners are greedier than ever before.

By the way, here's a question for Krugman:

Isn't this what secular stagnation looks like?

Seriously: on the one hand you have the triumph of Volcker's shock doctrine keeping forward interest rate expectations artificially low. On the other hand, you've had 35 years of anti-union anti-working-class warfare led by the Republican Party, keeping real wage growth negative for decades.

Toss in Piketty's continued concentration of capital among the people least likely to spend it.

Don't you think that these, alone, might be entirely responsible for the datapoints that you're identifying as "secular stagnation"?

Kruggers might think he's such a radical pinko because he still advocates Keynesian economics, but the truth is his narrative is still entirely supportive of the existing plutocratic power structure and still participates in all its myths and fabrications.


Wednesday, August 20, 2014

Newsglobules


Here's stuff, now read it:

Calculated Risk - architectural billings index highest since 2007. Sometimes you just can't argue with the data, right? I mean you can argue with the data, but only if you're a moron who has no clue what the data means.

Bespoke - continued pickup (A HA HA HA!! OH FUCK I SHAT MYSELF!) in auto sales. Do that again, Justin, and I'll hunt you down and kick your balls in.

Jim Cramer - this market is despised. There was another good article a few days ago that basically pointed out every single person out there is always buying the dip. So tell me something, Barry - why should you even expect a 10% correction? I mean, ever? If everyone buys the dip, and if there's still a lot of money on the sidelines, then how the hell does market physics produce a 10% correction?

Mining.com - interview with Pierre Lassonde. Strangely, Sprott have decided to start doing feature interviews with real businessmen who know what they're doing. Have they realized that there's no money left in stupid people?

NY Times - there are two Americas. How is it even a surprise that poor people search the internet for diets, guns and apocalyptic religion? But I think the author mixes it up: the reason these people are poor is because they're fucking fat racist gun-nuts who are waiting to get raptured.


Bit of morning perspective


I was doing some reading last night, and it was surprising to be reminded that this whole "Ukraine war" thing has been going on since at least April.

In that time, by the way, the S&P 500 has advanced by about 100 points.

I guess it really doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things, no matter what the lamestream media wants us to think at any point in time.


Tuesday, August 19, 2014

Some Tuesday noontime noos


Here's some news for today:

Evan Soltas - calls bullshit on this whole secular stagnation thingie. He asserts that the secular stagnation thesis, being an extraordinary assertion, requires data to back it up beyond what we have. Personally, I'm starting to think that it's just a made-up fantasy from a bunch of economists who want to convince themselves that they're living in special times and have discovered something new.

Bespoke - range-bound Russell. My own bet is that it goes to new all-time highs, since the QQQ and SPY already have.

Ritholtz - spotting bullshit in the news. Unfortunately, he should have gone one further, and explain how to spot bullshit in people who are trying to spot bullshit. The continued love for childish Republican fairy-tales and the Russian state-funded propaganda at Zerohedge indicate that there are good ways and bad ways to distrust the media.

Krebs on Security - secret messages embedded in Google Translate. This is just damn spooky, and probably is evidence of some deep Google Translate hack. Either that or it's the ghost of Jorge Luis Borges.


Let's check in on Seafield Resources


So let's check in on how Seafield Resources is doing:


Ermagerd! Seafield is now selling for a shiny new hapenny bit!

But I don't get it! A junior mining analyst once said all these amazing things about Seafield:

The Gold Report:

This is a story with great geology. It has continuous excellent intercepts since its announcement of 449m of 1.25 g/t in December 2010.
and
Seafield has an NI 43-101 coming and the drill results are great.

Or how about this from Mining.com:

Seafield Resources Ltd. (TSX.V:SFF) yesterday announced a stunning drill hole result: 449 metres grading 1.29 grams per tonne of gold. With this intercept, which included a 23.95 metre segment grading 9.18 gram per tonne gold, there is absolutely no doubt that the Miraflores deposit is going to be a home run.

When the market opens later this morning, any shares you can get under a dollar will likely be ten-bagger potential, as with a few more drills holes like this one, and you’ve got Ventana 2 on your hands. (Ventana is currently the subject of a buyout offer by Brazil’s EBX Gruoup for $1.5 Billion.)

[...]

It might be tough to get shares at under a dollar when the stock opens up later this morning – you can count on substantial and ferocious demand for these shares. But with such a big intercept, there’s no doubt there is more where that came from.

Grab all you can with both hands.

Or how about this from Marketwired:

Following a Thursday mid-day halt in trading, Seafield Resources (TSX-V: SFF) soared today, after releasing details of their first three drill holes at their Miraflores property in Columbia. The third hole reported a stunning 449 metres grading 1.29 grams per tonne of gold, including a 23.95 metre segment grading 9.18 grams per tonne gold.

Based on these drill results, James West, publisher of the Midas Letter (www.midasletter.com), had a buy alert out to his subscribers before the opening today, calling this deposit a home run.

"When the market opens later this morning, any shares you can get under a dollar will likely be ten-bagger potential, as with a few more drill holes like this one, and you've got Ventana 2 on your hands", stated James West.

[...]

"You can count on substantial and ferocious demand for these shares. But with such a big intercept, there's no doubt there is more where that came from", stated Mr. West.

Should we still buy all the shares that we can? I mean, if this was a ten-bagger at a dollar, that makes it a... a... a thousand-bagger today! And that's a lot of bags! Amirite? Amirite?

I'm waiting for guidance! Tell me, mister junior mining analyst!


Somebody asked Google to take down an IKN post re: Liberty Silver


So here's IKN today:

IKN - Jemi Fibre blah blah blah

where IKN is back to old form.

Except the original link at the bottom of that post went to a repost of an IKN writeup on Liberty Silver, from IKN 179, which no longer exists on the internet. At least not in Canada, anyway.

The blogspot.ca writeup has been deleted off the blogspot system "in response to a legal request submitted to Google", as you'll find out if you follow that particular link.

Informatively, that takedown notice gives you a link to a chillingeffects.org file where you can see who submitted the takedown request.

And guess who submitted the takedown request?



The Midas Letter.

But you can still read IKN's writeup at these other addresses

http://incakolanews.blogspot.nl/2012/10/liberty-silver-lbsv-lslto-from-ikn179.html
http://incakolanews.blogspot.dk/2012/10/liberty-silver-lbsv-lslto-from-ikn179.html
http://incakolanews.blogspot.hk/2012/10/liberty-silver-lbsv-lslto-from-ikn179.html

among others.

UPDATE: actually, it turns out that IKN's either been drinking too much or not enough, because he damn well wrote about all of James West's post takedowns two years ago.


Reminder, gold and silver OpEx is coming


Just to remind you, CME gold and silver OpEx is next Tuesday. So expect some fun price moves over the next week which might not be even remotely indicative of underlying strength or weakness. I suggest using GDXJ as a reality check on the metals moves.

Speaking of which, hey how's that new "silver fix" working out for you? You know, the one that's no longer manipulated by the cartel of evil bankers?


Uh-huh. That well, eh?


Monday, August 18, 2014

Some news items


Three blind newsbits, see how they run:


Bespoke - a different kind of second half. Apparently, the second half of each quarter has been a lot more positive than the first half of each quarter. That suggests that when you get the market to stop thinking about bullshit particulars like Chinese chicken or how much Walmart sucks, the underlying bias for the market is an upward drift.


Liz Ann Sonders - market players still piddling their pink panties over nothing. Liz (and a couple other people but we don't really care about them) authors an article pointing out that the US economy is still doing fine. I found this chart particularly interesting:


How is that kind of increase in domestic US oil production not a tremendous tailwind for the economy?


Bespoke - prices at the pump still falling. Which is a boon for the consumer. I mean, if you fucking capitalist scumbags aren't going to give them a raise to a living wage, they can still save money at the pump, right?


Sarcasm of the day


I thought this was funny yet true:




JUNK BOND COLLAPSE CONTINUES, ACCELERATES: ha ha gotcha no everything's fine actually check it out


Let's check in on the continued collapse of junk bonds:


I still await the day that Barry Ritholtz, Josh Brown, Joey the Weasel and all their friends apologize to the internetoblogoverse for freaking everyone out about what turns out to have been utterly nothing.

Instead, they have now all gone starkly silent on the subject of junk bonds.

I mean hell, isn't this just a 91% Fibonacci retrace before the collapse continues? Or something?

Come on, guys! Just two weeks ago it was impending dooooom! What about those junk bond ETF outflows? Is everything better now? Have you found something else to piddle your pink panties over?


SECULAR STAGNATION - comment on Olivier Blanchard et al


I'm now reading Blanchard's section in the Vox EU book on secular stagnation, and a slightly tangential idea popped into my head:

Blanchard presents a chart that shows the real interest rate has been in decline since 1985, with a bit of a stutter in the mid-90s.

To me, this does not jibe with changes in world growth trends: the decline happens uniformly across a US secular bull and an EM secular bull. It also is too damn long, I think, for the decline to be produced by a US demographic trend. Too much has happened over those 3 decades, and we've only started whining recently.

Also, if I remember correctly, the US demographic trend in working-age population is apparently about to change back to positive for the next while.

So has any economist anywhere given any thought whatsoever to the idea that the real interest rate secular decline over the past 30 years was directly the result of the Volcker shock doctrine? Maybe Volcker was so damn good at slaying inflation that he permanently changed the market's long-term expectations for inflation?

I mean, if Krugman's right that expectations of inflation generate inflation, then perhaps Volcker is the one single factor that has changed that feedback mechanism. I mean, was there ever a Volcker-style anti-inflationary attack ever before, anywhere, in the history of economies? (Would it even have been possible in the age of the gold standard?) Maybe the shocking extremity of his monetary policy permanently changed the perceived extent of the interest rate playing field.

If you're going to question stuff, then why not question what new thing happened when the origin of the present trend is identifiable in a chart? And if the world of interest expectations was permanently different after Volcker, then maybe that explains why interest rates have been different?

Because I sincerely doubt that the 2000s/2010s have been the first time in human history that people began to live longer and save more money. I'm sorry, Kruggers, that's a bullshit narrative right there.

To radically change the setpoint of a feedback-governed system and set it on a long drift away from the setpoint, you need a massively large new input. Volcker's shock doctrine looks to me like a good candidate.

The interesting upshot of this is that "secular stagnation", if you want it to stop, might need an Antivolcker of equal but opposite radicalism to counteract it.

But do you want permanently higher interest rates, Krugger? Is that a good thing? Or is it only good for the rentier class?

Or do you simply want growth rates above interest rates? If so, don't you think you should be paying more attention to Piketty?