Wednesday, November 26, 2014

I have a rock that hasn't done anything in 5 years - wanna buy that too?


Poked around in some other blog rolls and found these:

Bespoke - jobless claims "surge". Except they normally go up this time of year. Yawn.

FT Alphaville - the US government has finally stopped holding back the recovery. Actually, either Bonddad or Bill McBride have already been talking about this for months, buddy. It's not news. It was news in late 2013.

Gavyn Davies - fault lines within the ECB. And it all boils down to party lines: Draghi is a Keynesian, while Weidmann is a sadomonetarist from the Austrian school. Ultimately, we can hope that Weidmann gets proven wrong, and decades from now his grave becomes a popular defecation place. A hilarious jab in the comments section: "These guys are from the Austrian school? Do they ride to the ECB meetings in a carriage?"

JC Parets - hey, look at Europe! Yeah, upon reading this article, I'm suddenly overcome with doubt as to whether it was a good idea to buy a Europe ETF. I generally don't believe one single sentence this guy writes, and basing everything on a long-term ratio chart is specious.

Short Side of Long - China to play catch-up? Hey Tiho, did you know that the FXI is only the "China 25"? Maybe the chart sucks because that ETF is a bunch of fat SOEs, and it's only bought by hedge fund morons who have no clue about the China economy? Maybe instead you should look into China tech ETFs instead, which are up quite nicely over the past year, especially considering that Jim O'Neill (the guy who invented "BRIC") has called China tech the new play?

But no, so you're going to buy the FXI because it's not done anything in over 5 years? That's an investment strategy? I have a rock that hasn't done anything in 5 years - wanna buy that too?

Miners that have already rolled over: what does it mean?


Charts:


Argonaut has already rolled over and resumed its descent. It's below its EMA and below the Bollinger mean, and worth less today than it was yesterday - how clearer a signal than that do you need?




Endeavour isn't as clear, but it is already failing its EMA.




McEwen has also failed its EMA and is trending back down.




Sandstorm is also failing its EMA, though that's also not as clear.

So are the junior miners in the process of rolling over, and quality is going to drop last?

Or is the market just reacting to last week's sector-wide pop, and only now starting to sort the wheat from the chaff?

I guess we'll know in a couple days max.


SMA(50)s suddenly seem important right now


GDX seems not to want to cross its SMA(50). As if it matters or something.




GDXJ seems not to want to cross $30.



GLD is also squashed below its SMA(50).




And SLV shies away from its SMA(50) too.

The SMA(50) only matters because people sometimes trick themselves into thinking that it's important. Kinda like religion.

But religion still makes real people do dumb things in real life even though it's all stone-age mud-hut hokum, so the SMA(50) might make people want to dump miners because ooga-booga. That's TA for you.

AKG, RIOM and (ha!) KGC have all already popped above their SMA(50)s, though, so the question is whether the rest of the complex can follow suit.

And how meaningless would that SMA(50) get if the US dollar index decides to turn south?

Who knows. It seems important for now, but frankly I'm getting a bit fed up here and am about to write this little junior miners pop as a roll-over in progress.

VIX is a bit low


$VIX:


Normally at -2SD it should turn back up, at least for a few days.

Problem is, none of the stock indices seem to be rolling over right now, except maybe IWM, and post-turkey markets are usually quite bullish.


I keep deleting trivial news articles


I had more news links for you, but then I figured they were mostly trivial bullshit. We're on set-and-forget until things change, then we'll start reading the news again.

So here's what I do have:

FT Alphaville - commodity decline: definancialization? Is there really so much of a speculative premium on commodities?

The Krugginator - Keynes is slowly winning. Now even the OECD has turned their backs on sadomonetarism.

Mineweb - iron ore drops below $70. And Rio, BHP and Vale just don't care.

Mineweb - Marine Le Pen calls for audit of French gold reserves. This is your ally, goldbugs - a neo-Nazi. Just wanted to point that out, for those of you who've never heard of the Le Pen name.


WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?: you won't believe what happens next!


Previously, on Buffy the Vampire Slayer!:


Does it continue drawing a shallow upward channel? Or does it break down here?

What do you think happens to PMs if it breaks down?

It's the thing to watch! Too bad we might have to wait til next week!


Tuesday, November 25, 2014

To collider!


OK, this is one of those SMBCs where the lead-up is the funny bit.

To collider!


Me told you so!

GOLD AND SILVER UPDATE: you won't believe what happens next!


Here's some more charts, by the way.

GLD:


It's still above its EMA(7), so by definition gold is in an uptrend.

SLV:



It's still above its EMA, so again, uptrend. Note that I do personally believe the fundamentals for silver suck balls; however, the entire market's known this for a while, I bet it was already baked into the price. Maybe too baked.

And here, again, is the key:



If UUP breaks down from this horizontal consolidation, I'm hoping I see some fun to finish the year as long-short PM pairs get unwound. Maybe it won't happen, but it's my bet anyway.


IS EUROPE REBOUNDING? the answer will shock you!


Well, it actually pays off to watch CNBC once in a while. I was seeing the Euro tickers going green a fair bit regularly, so I checked the charts and lo and behold, peripheral Europe seems to be turning round a bit:

Higher low and higher high means an uptrend for Ireland. Hooray for the inventors of hard liquor!



 Higher low and higher high means an uptrend for Italy. Hooray for the inventors of wine!




Higher low and higher high means an uptrend for Spain. Hooray for the inventors of the disco and the afternoon nap!




OK, Greece still sucks.

Anyway, I checked the Google and apparently there are now some TSX-listed Europe ETFs. Vanguard has VE, and Ishares has XEH. The latter is CAD-hedged. I don't know what other differences there are just yet.

Neither has particularly good liquidity right now, but at least I can take a position for a longer-term hold. Europe's beaten down because everyone's known for a while that they suck, and so possibly the position has more upside than the US. So I bought some XEH, ol' currency-hedging me.

I'm not going to go hog-wild for a Europe position, but I have no problem sticking a few thou there.

Note this doesn't mean I suddenly hate junior miners: it just means I realize only a moron goes 100% the juniors.


Monday, November 24, 2014

WHY ARE THE RUSSIANS BUYING GOLD? The answer will shock you!


Here's some quality reading:

New Deal Demoncrat - weekly indicators summary. Everything is still doing fine, nothing suggesting an "imminent rollover" in US stocks despite what goldbug TAs might tell you.

Liz Ann Sonders - market might drop a couple percent, don't piddle your panties. She thinks sentiment is a bit extended, making the US market vulnerable to a little pullback. Me personally, I think a $VIX of 12.8 is a bit low.

New Deal Demoncrat - watch gasoline prices keep dropping. If you want to figure out the benefit to the average US consumer, the math is easy.

Bloomberg - what to expect in the era of cheap oil. With just enough anti-Bolivarist rhetoric to raise Otto Rock's rankles.

Streetwise Professor - swatting the goldbugs. As he notes, Russia buying gold is not a good thing, despite what you read in Zerohedge. He explains the real reason: sanctions. He also suggests you read this.

der Spargel - the Caliphate's African colonies. Yay, let's spread the Islamic Caliphate! This is really going to work out well! I personally think the world still needs a billion people living in fucking mud huts and shitting in a hole in the ground.

Saturday, November 22, 2014

MICKEYMAN SAYS OMG NOW IS THE TIME TO HOLD GOLD MINERS


World Complex - OMG NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY GOLD MINERS!!!!1!

I dunno if it's enough of a sample size just yet, but his data does seem to say that gold-USD correlation has now flipped to positive.

Which btw I thought might be seen if there was an unwinding of the long-USD-short-GDX trade. Because GDX is too tiny a pool for pair-trade elephants to flop around in.

I don't think it's the end of gold miners sucking™, but I do think it really looks like a safe time to play a quick (weeks or months) rebound.

Anyway, maybe if GDX and GDXJ do well enough in this little rebound, it'll reduce the level of disdain in the market for miners, and we can be on the way to building a real base for the next longer-term rise. After all, the S&P shouldn't be booking >10% wins for the next few years, while (as we smelly goldbugs know) junior miners can book you 50% wins in just a couple months.

We've got the action, bitches. Too bad the past 3 years of it has been to the downside, but hey, if even just that negative bias left the market it would make for fun trading ahead.

Anyway, we'll see. I would doubt the possibility that a bottom was in, if Ritholtz hadn't spent the past two weeks baiting goldbugs daily with end-of-gold dooooom stories.


Another great post of the past: "CEO Technician" botches a top call over the space of a week


Here's another popular post of the past:

My blog is awesome - "CEO Technician" botches a top call over the space of a week. And with a further 6 months behind us, the worthlessness of CEO.ca's "analysis" is made even more evident.

Quoted in full:




CEO.ca - a market on the brink!!!1! Here's what he said:
Never before have there been so many warning signs of an impending market decline while the senior equity indices remained within 2% of all-time highs.
I guess the rotation out of tech spec stocks and the transports upside breakout were only so many warning signs of an impending market decline for this guy. Because he probably doesn't read much outside of the goldbug sphere.

Here's his hilarious chart with arbitrary silly TA lines drawn on it:


And by the title of this post from May 8th ("a market on the brink"), as well as the title of his post from May 10 ("diamond top for the S&P?") you can surmise that this clown was predicting a market top.

Oh there's also these other posts:

May 6 - how long can energy hold up the market?
April 14 - this chart is flashing a red light for the stock market.
April 7 - the market is sending ominous signals.

And I don't even want to go into all his embarrassing "gold is at an inflection point" and "gold is set up for a strong move higher" posts. That's for later.

Well? How's your "diamond top" formation resolving itself, just two days later?


Broken to the upside. There's yet another top call ground into the dust, forgotten by all. A whole month of dooming, wasted.

Oh and by the way: SPY isn't the index. $SPX is the index. SPY is an ETF and doesn't track $SPX exactly. Here's your proof:


I guess Tommy Hump has to keep posting this silly, amateurish, always-wrong patter on his website, since he probably feels his job is to get people the hell out of the S&P 500 and into the gold stocks.

But dammit man, this "technician" fellow has become Raoul Pal level embarrassing. How long are you going to keep posting stuff from a guy who's always wrong, every single day?

Maybe later today I'll post a summary of his last few months of gold TA.

UPDATE: it was a guaranteed slam-dunk, the only question was how long it'd take IKN to plug this post.


Friday, November 21, 2014

DPM sucks BUT....


Dundee Precious Metals has turned up:


Yabut the price of gold has dropped and DPM is a marginal producer, no?

Yeah, well it's been that way forever, and yet look at this:


It's been down this low before and popped back up to $5.

I got me some on a lark, yesterday. It's always been a good play when I time it right... it seems the robots move the price more than humans do, and now the robots should be sending DPM's stock price back up if this is a new bull move in junior miners.

If not? Well, it's a flip trade.