Monday, July 21, 2014
Here's some noontime reading for those watching the noncommittal market:
Bloomberg - bubble paranoia setting in. Because the market's not supposed to go up with a black man in charge, or something.
Reuters - late monsoon starts farmer's journey to hell. With the caveat that gold doesn't really care that much what happens in Uttar Pradesh. Kudos though to Nameet Panwar, who has enough brains to switch to a higher-yielding crop.
Sunday, July 20, 2014
IKN - Mike Shedlock is a fucktard. Where he says:
He's been going tinfoil for quite a while, but today's post in which he tries to pass off a one month old Youtube as a video of the shooting down of MH17, along with conjecture that the plane (which is obviously not MH17) was under control as it dived, is nauseating.Yes, and in particular I'd like to go one further than Otto, who merely notes the date, and point out the video is of the fucking Antonov that the Russians shot down back in June.
You can tell by the fucking video title, "Под Славянском сбили АН-30".
So I actually went over and read his crazy-ass article, and I can explain why Mish wrote this crap.
He did it so he could get a repost on Zerohedge. It fits perfectly.
But what I find funnier is this article that Mish links to:
Newsmax - Ron Paul says "don't blame Putin for MH-17".
I find it hilarious because the great White hope of the Republican Party, Ron Paul, has now essentially come out as yet another Republican stooge for Vladimir Putin:
The former Republican presidential candidate says that the United States shares responsibility for the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.I guess that's what happens when you're a goldbug. You start watching Russia Today, and before you know it you've been won over to the side of the Russians.Next thing we know Paul will reject libertarianism in favour of locking gays up in jail and forcing mandatory membership in church.
"It's pretty evident that the whole problem in Ukraine started approximately a year ago when the Europeans, along with the United States, overthrew an elected government and overthrew [former Ukrainian President Viktor] Yanukovych — insisting that there'd be civil strife over there," he explained.
The United States instituted sanctions against Russia Tuesday aimed at Russia's financial institutions and defense sector, which Paul considers "acts of war."
And what proves Ron Paul is completely out to lunch?
"Under these circumstances, it's very difficult to get the real information so everybody's angling to propagandize and make their position known," he said.Really, grampa? I guess you didn't hear that the Russian-backed rebels bragged that they did it:
"It'd be unwise to say, well, the Russians did it, or the Ukrainian government did it, or the rebels did it."
This is what happens when you let propaganda on the airwaves, idiots into the blogosphere, and clueless fantasyland goldbugs into politics.
Two weekend reads for you:
New Deal Demoncrat - weekly economic indicators. Everything still looks good in the US.
Mining.com - fewer disscoveries, slower development weigh on gold industry. With the caveat, of course, that this doesn't include a damn thing happening in China.
Friday, July 18, 2014
Do I buy back my Rio Alto before the close? Or not?
I dunno. GDX still looks like an uptrend. The short EMA violation reversed completely, and that's a nice candle to end the week. It might still be topping, but it also might still be correcting before another leg higher. Do you want to wait for a new high to print? That's always the question. Isn't it good to buy at RSI=50 after an overbought condition?
But the three line break chart looks like crap unless we close above $27.20 or so.What to do?
GDXJ looks good too. The bad % loss today is only because it took off so strongly yesterday.
And yet GLD's chart sucks. That does look like a bear flag, all it's done is reverse at the SMA(50), it's still below its short EMA and the attempted cross of the EMA yesterday failed.
Then again, gold was slammed several times this week to the tune of $4B notional. When are they intending to buy that position back? After opex?
SLV also doesn't look as good, but considering it was also slammed this week, it's still a darn strong chart. And now that crazy overbought position in RSI has been worked off.
So do I buy back more Rio Alto at the close? Or not?
It's not an easy decision, like shorting $VIX at +3SD.
Here's some market news:
Bespoke - morning commentary. Quote:
Following the sun’s departure from the United States yesterday evening, Asia-Pacific markets opened sharply lower, putting an end to their more localized regime of price moves. Early in trading, the Nikkei was off sharply (-1.6%), the ASX index of Australian stocks was down over 60 bps, Hong Kong was 1% lower and China started off 40 bps below Thursday’s close. But the universal reaction from these indices was for traders to buy the dip: every single major regional market gained steadily through the morning on the western edge of the Pacific, with gains of roughly 60 bps across the board, taking China and Australia positive on the day and all indices well off their early lows, which were not seen again. In other words, while a repricing took place (Hong Kong off 28 bps, Nikkei off 101 bps), there was no acceleration of concerns, and markets found a clearing price for the new risk premium with steady demand for risk assets in the face of lower prices.Buying the dip? That's good. So I guess my shorting $VIX at the close turned out to be the right move?
Chronicles of Brodrick - smart money chart. Hey Sean, there's other people in the blogosphere who have been saying "smart money has been selling for months! Get out of the markets because only the dummies are buying!" So are there multiple "smart money indicators" which are in disagreement with each other? If so, that's not very smart, is it?
Bonddad - get ready for an awesome Q2 GDP print. Or maybe I should avoid all the "smart money indicators" commentary altogether and spend 10 minutes a week reading the economic analysis at Bonddad and Calculated Risk? Following "smart money indicators" seems like a shortcut to avoid reading real economic commentary. That doesn't sound very smart, does it?
The Irrelevant Investor - cherry picking. I think this one's about gold, but Tumblr is blocked here at work so I dunno. Message to bloggers: posting stuff on Tumblr doesn't count as blogging. It counts as getting in the way of my enjoyment of teen girl selfies.
Chronicles of Brodrick - blah blah charts. Except for this:
And my consolations to anyone who lost someone on the plane. Why was it flying over a war zone, anyway?It was flying over a war zone because air traffic controllers, whose profession it is to control air traffic, cleared it to fly above 32,000 feet. Air traffic controllers tell you where to fly: a pilot doesn't get to do whatever he wants. If planes had to avoid all war zones there would be no air travel. Perhaps the question you should ask is "why did a Russian soldier decide to commit a violation of the rules of war by not sending an interrogation signal to determine if it was a civilian plane before firing a SAM at it?"
The Guardian - Russian forces are now destroying evidence. They realize they were stupidly posting proof that they have a SAM missile launcher and bragging on the internet about using it to shoot down this plane. Now they're running around deleting stuff from the internet to try to cover their tracks. Unfortunately they still don't understand that we know how to take screenshots, and we never trusted these subhuman vermin to own up.
By the way, here's a photo of the operator's console for a Buk:
That would be real easy for some drunk Donbas "freedom-fighter" to operate, no? It's point-and-click, ain't it? You wouldn't need more than a manual to operate that, would you? You certainly wouldn't need training from Russian soldiers, or be a soldier yourself, to operate that!
The Guardian - Sara Firth resigns in protest from her London correspondent position for Russia Today. This is hilarious:
Sara Firth, who worked at Russia Today for five years, described the channel’s reporting of the crash in which 298 people were killed, including a former BBC journalist, as the “straw that broke the camel’s back”.Wow, Sara! It took you til yesterday to figure out that you've been working at a company that spreads disinformation against the West? There was nothing else suspicious in your five years at RT?
Russia Today, which has been criticised as a propaganda mouthpiece for the Russian government, suggested Ukraine was to blame for the crash, while most media organisations have said it was shot down by a suspected Russian-made missile.
“It was the most shockingly obvious misinformation and it got to the point where I couldn’t defend it any more,” Firth told the Guardian.
“When this story broke that was the moment I knew I had to go. I walked into the newsroom and there was an eyewitness account making allegations [against Ukraine] and analysis, if you can call it, from our correspondent in the studio.
“It was just appalling, in a situation like that where there are families waiting to be informed and a devastating loss of life.”
She added: “I have always fought against this argument that RT is an evil network but you wake up and think, that’s just wrong.You started your career at Russia Today? Well dear, it looks like you've ended your career there as well. Good luck finding a new one. Quitting RT doesn't demonstrate integrity; at best it demonstrates that you've finally clued in to how much of a sucker you've been.
“It was not an easy decision, I started my career at RT, and I respect many of the team there. In the end it got to the point where I couldn’t defend it and I didn’t believe there was something to defend. A story like this really highlights it.”
You tell me:
I dunno, does that look like a bear pennant to you?
Does that look like a bear pennant too?
Or am I just imagining things?
Or were the smackdowns this week meant to draw scary charts, in the same way the late-May smackdowns did? I remember I called bullshit on the late-May action, and I've made a lot of money on that. Is this the same thing?
And has anyone noticed that gold has already touched the bottom of June's big white candle, while silver is still acting quite a bit stronger since the pop? Anything to do with silver being an industrial metal, you think?
And hey, has anyone on Wall Street yet realized how illiquid the gold options market is, even during the US market, by seeing how yesterday's gold price spike on the Ukraine news has slowly dwindled away over the subsequent 24 hours? Has anyone yet learned that the gold options traders are swimming in too small a pool?
Some charts before the open:
The S&P dove a bit yesterday, due to the whole imminent Third World War fear.
I actually watched a bit of Cramer last night. He was far behind the curve in terms of the news flow (I guess he gets all his news from Business Insider), and he also suggested it's a good idea to leave this for a few days before buying. I only present this because his opinions may be indicative of a fair number of US traders. Looking at the chart above, the S&P 500 closed yesterday in no-man's land and the next support is the SMA(50).
People have been crowing about how they want a correction and a buy opp; let's see how interested they are now that they've been given a buy opp today.
QQQ has been very strong, then dove to its Bollinger mean yesterday.
After looking at these two charts, and the MACDs, I suspect this could be one of those automatic TA-style triggers that promotes a "what the hell, let's just dump stuff" type sell-off like what we see happened in March. But there's no reason for it.
As well, MACD has been crossed over all through June, and yet QQQ was still going up. That's the problem with momentum indicators: they only show you short-term divergence from the longer-trend momentum.
R2K has been incredibly weak. I mean wow, that chart sucks. But now it's gone below -2SD, which has usually provided a bounce of at least a day or two. Then again, is newsflow supportive of that kind of move today?
And you know, with their fixation on the news of the moment, people might just be forgetting that sometime in the next week or two the USA is going to report an incredibly strong Q2 GDP number.
And like I said, $VIX printed a huge spike for the end of the day. 14.5 is over three standard deviations above the mean; then again, the bands have been tightened in the past month, so that doesn't mean as much as it used to.
Can we get a spike to 20 on the $VIX? I don't see why that should happen. It's just not sensible. Frankly, you see innocent civilians getting killed all over the world all the time, and the market never cares.
We'll see. Like I said, the market is being handed a buy opp, but they might not take it for a couple days.
ABC News (the Australian one, not the American one) also has a good feed on the Malaysian Airlines attack. Though I guess there'll be little action on the site during the day today since it's night-time over there.
Thursday, July 17, 2014
Here's the initial victim list from MH17:
NATIONALITIES: - 154 Dutch - 27 Australian - 23 Malaysian - 11 Indonesian - 6 British - 4 Germans - 4 Belgians - 3 Filipinos - 1 Canadian
So, Angela Merkel, you are now guilty of murdering four Germans. After all, it's been you who's been sucking Putin's cock for cheap natural gas while the rest of the world has been trying to solve the Ukraine crisis.
I guess it's not that big a deal for her, though, since she also managed to kill 154 Dutch, 27 Aussies, 6 Brits, 4 Belgians and a Canadian. After all, that's a much better point differential than Hitler.
THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES JUST READ MY BLOG, NO REALLY, I AM NOT SHITTING YOU: here's proof
OMG PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA JUST CLICKED ON MY BLOG TODAY.
No really, here's proof:
|click to embiggen|
I'm pretty sure he doesn't let just any old asshat into his Executive Office. This wasn't Rand Paul dropping in and saying "hey Barry, mind if I use your computer to check up on shitty gold stocks for my dad? I promise I won't enter the launch codes for world war 3 and blame it on you after."
I wonder what Obama was looking for? Information about who shot down the Malaysian jetliner, perhaps?
My god that would be pathetic.
HE'S THE PRESIDENT OF THE WORLD'S ONLY SUPERPOWER, HE SPENDS TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS A YEAR ON ESPIONAGE AND THE MILITARY, HE HAS HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF SPOOKS WORKING UNDER HIM IN MULTIPLE DIFFERENT AGENCIES, AND HE NEEDS TO COME TO MY BLOG TO FIND PROOF THAT THE RUSSKIES SHOT DOWN MH17?
My god, Bo-dog! The Guardian has been telling you this for 6 hours now! THE RUSSKIES ADMITTED IT ON VKONTAKTE!!! The fuck, are you getting your news from MSNBC? Got nobody who can read Russian in your inner circle?
You're briefed when Angela Merkel wakes up with a boil on her fat sweaty buttcrack! You're notified every time David Cameron gets another blowjob from that Moldovan hooker the Russians are controlling him with! Can't anyone in your fucking staff keep you in the loop about an actual warzone?
He couldn't be coming here for emergency research. God no. I simply refuse to believe that. Unlike most people in the blogosphere, I do have confidence that the most powerful country in the world is run by people who do know what the fuck they're doing.
(Though he did surf here without using NoScript. Seriously Mr. Obama, that is rank incompetence from your sysadmin, right there. You really need to tell your cybersecurity dudes to install NoScript, Ghostery and AdBlock Plus on all official computers. If you were using NoScript I'd not even have known you had visited my page. Do you really want the President of the United States, the most powerful man in the universe, to even be seen by some mouth-breathing loonie like me?)
(and fuck dude, really? You use Internet Explorer? You?!? Gates has written two dozen back doors into that thing just so he can read your emails!)
OK, so let's dig deeper. What particular pages did the President visit?
|click to enhugeify|
Oh shit, okay. The archive for the week of Feb 16th. Shit shit shit. What did I do? Oh crap, I didn't say something illegal that week, did I? Fuck fuck fuck.
AM I ABOUT TO GET "DISAPPEARED" BY US SECRET SERVICE AGENTS? ARE THEY ON THEIR WAY ALREADY?
Let's look at what I posted on the week of Feb 16th to see if I need to be skee-daddling out of town:
Friday videos - Kylie's catchy new single. OK, prez, that's cool. You're really suffering the stress, what with America and
Market Narrative is even more not a blog than IKN. OK, that's cool too. You wanted to see humourous kitten gifs to distract you momentarily from the looming apocalypse, and so you came here. Humourous kitten gifs may save the world yet.
Two morning newsbits on gold, plus dietary advice. OK, you're under stress, so you google "egg mcmuffin" and you land here. Hey, no big, Clinton used to pound back Big Macs and he turned out alright, except for that whole murdering Vince Foster thing.
The pic I posted of the letter from a crazy dude looking for a chick he met at the bus stop. OK... you probably weren't interested in that. You probably see enough crazy people letters in your anti-fanmail.
I make fun of Grant Williams and how I'm not going to see him at PDAC. I guess it sucks for Grant Williams now that he knows even the PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA has read the post where I mock him for his grossly inaccurate past predictions.
GLD is not gold. It'd be interesting if B-dog came for this article. Yeah I doubt it. Doesn't look like the typical goldbug. He's too... what's the word? swarthy? Yeah, that's it.
Opinion on the PDAC speaker list, silver chart, Lydian chart, more news, GDX:GDXJ chart... fuck dude, I post a lot of fucking senseless garbage, don't I? Who the fuck reads this shit anyway?
SMBC's cartoon on Hitler fighting time-travelling assassins? I hope Barry got a laugh out of that one. Seriously, Prez, you should subscribe to smbc comics. He's real funny, though he's unfortunately cut down on the dick and poop jokes now that he's gotten all married and procreated.
Anyway, we'll never know what he came here for. But we now know that my blog has been visited by the FUCKING POTUSA BITCHEZ.
Do you know any other blogs that can claim this?
No. No you don't.
You don't know any other blogs that have been visited by BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA PRESIDENT OF THE FUCKING U-S-A! U-S-A! U-S-A!
So fuck you, all the rest of the blogosphere: I am now officially better than all y'all. Fuck you Ritholtz, fuck you Josh Brown, fuck you Joey the Weasel. Fuck yuz all.