Thursday, July 31, 2014

EBOLA OUTBREAK IN AMERICA IMMINENT: here's what you need to wharrgarbl


Oh, Zerohedge! You're so funny when the Russian disinformation money runs out and you're forced to go to the silverbug brigade for news.


Economic Collapse Blog - this is what's going to happen when Ebola comes to America!! Oh dear, this is going to be a jaunty read! First they come for the Libertarian Objectivists:

If the worst Ebola outbreak in recorded history reaches the United States, federal law permits "the apprehension and examination of any individual reasonably believed to be infected with a communicable disease". These individuals can be "detained for such time and in such manner as may be reasonably necessary". In other words, the federal government already has the authority to round people up against their will, take them to detention facilities and hold them there for as long as they feel it is "reasonably necessary". In addition, as you will read about below, the federal government has the authority "to separate and restrict the movement of well persons who may have been exposed to a communicable disease to see if they become ill". If you want to look at these laws in the broadest sense, they pretty much give the federal government the power to do almost anything that they want with us in the event of a major pandemic. Of course such a scenario probably would not be called "martial law", but it would probably feel a lot like it.

Er! Mah! Gerd! But what about our freedoms? Do these socialist fascist Nazis have no shame? Ayn Rand would never stand for such a thing! Locking people up just because they have a deadly communicable disease?

Where the hell is Jeff Berwick when we need him?!?!?!?!

And what's worse, not only are you locked up, you're force-fed Obamacare against your will!


Probably forcibly gay married and abortioned too!

But wait! There's derp!:

And of course there are many other ways that Ebola could spread to this country. For instance, all it would take would be for one infected person to get on one airplane and it could all be over.

My god! And how do you contract ebola?

Well, medical authorities tell us that it can be spread through the blood, urine, saliva, stools and semen of a person or animal that already has Ebola.

If you are exposed to the disease, the incubation period can be from anywhere from two days up to 21 days. But the average is usually about eight to ten days.

In other words, you can be spreading it around for over a week before you even know that you have it.

So....

All I have to do is make sure that I don't touch anyone's blood, urine, saliva, stools or semen?

OK. I already do that now.

What? Do libertarians find it hard to get through the day without touching people's blood, urine, saliva, stools and semen? Cuz I mean it's not too hard, and I leave the house and touch stuff and everything.

So what's the worry, mister Economic von Collapsenstein?

Let us hope that this latest outbreak fizzles out and that we won't even be talking about this by the end of the year.

Well yeah, okay, I'm cool with that.

But experts are warning that if a major global pandemic does break out that millions upon millions of people could die.

Sigh. "Experts"? "Experts" are saying that millions upon millions of people could die from Ebola?


Who's your "expert"? Max Keiser? Alex Jones? Someone you heard last night on Coast to Coast?

I mean, I guess you can go from 909 confirmed cases to "millions upon millions" of cases.

I mean, say you lived in some shithole ignorant country where nobody has any real education, everyone believes in witchcraft, everyone mistrusts scientists and prays to their little oogy-boogy voodoo spirits, people don't believe in medical care, people are so fixated on "liberty" that they let infected people loose to run around freely spreading the disease....

Um. Sorta like the United States now, except with more libertarianism.

Hm.

I guess this is why we own gold, people!


WALL STREET PUKES ON WAGES GOING UP: here's what you need to know


Now that the weeping and wailing and gnashing of teeth is over for the day, here's some evening reading:

BI - today's selloff was caused by the employment cost index. It was a big jump, so I'm wondering if it's a noisy dataset and nothing to get worried about. In any case, why the fuck would anyone sell a market where workers are suddenly making more money? I mean, has Libertarian Objectivism triumphed to the point that Wall Street now considers the entirety of the working class to be nothing but a parasitic hole into which money flows, never to see the economy again? Wage rises do nothing for the economy? They do nothing for government revenues? Really? It's 1992 all over again.

Calculated Risk - Friday sees the July BLS employment report. Dammit. See, I should have maybe bought a short Vix ETF at the close today, but didn't, thinking it'll pop to 19 or 20. But if this report comes up boring, the market should pop right back up. Well, that's what happens when you're too busy to follow the newsflow, no?

Reuters - August rains hold key for India's crops. Not looking too good for gold, buddy! Then again, Whitey says India doesn't matter for gold, it's all about America.


Waiting for the Faber signal


BTW, the minute Joey the Weasel at Business Insider runs another stupid Marc Faber story, that's the bottom and you can buy with both fists.


So how high will VIX go?


$VIX is at 16.5 or so at this second. +3.5SD on the daily is 17, so can it go that high?

I actually don't want to short vix at 17 if it gets there today, cos I think this time it could go higher.

So here's a chart of $VIX with +/-3.5SD on the weekly:


No reason for it except panty-pissing, but it could maybe go to 19 on the weekly.

Maybe I'll sit here and wait, with all the cash I raised by dumping shitty gold miners last week, for $VIX of 19 before shorting it. That would probably be a VVIX of 105-110, wouldn't it?

It's interesting to note btw that there's still no backwardation on the term structure. So this isn't fear of anything immediate.

Who knows? I got a "deadly deal" last week on VIX that I traded for a good fast profit. I think this week I'll wait for an even more "deadly deal". 19 seems about right. If I miss out on the deadly deal, so be it.

Meanwhile no I haven't sold my S&P or my R2K. Because this is bullshit.


Quick update on PMs and miners charts


Charts!


GLD is still below its EMA, and is now below the SMA(50) too. This meets the criterion for a downtrend. Thus avoid.




SLV is also below the EMA, though still above the SMA. That darn gap in mid-June looks an awful tempting target, no? Scary, avoid.

And yet:


GDX valiantly refuses to break down below $26.



GDXJ valiantly refuses to break down below $41.

I dunno what to make of this.


Some noontime noos


Very busy here at work, and only have time for a short update.

Meanwhile, for some reason the market has decided to take a hissy-fit. The media is casting about for explanations like Chicago PMI (worthless datapoint), Argentina (make me larf) and individual companies like Samsung (again make me larf).

I want to short $VIX at >+3SD again but I'm too busy to watch a screen. Besides, maybe it should be above 16? Maybe that's the right price for $VIX?

So here's some news, then back to work for me:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - the labour market versus the bond market. Know what Josh? I can guarantee you four things. One, bond yields will go up when the Fed normalizes rates. Two, they have a long way to go before rates can strangle the economy. Three, workers making more money is good for the economy. Four, wages have a long way to go before they strangle profits. Now quit piddling your pink panties and buy the dip, mister "trading in and out of the market does nothing but cost transaction fees and capital gains taxes".

Bespoke - the no-bull bull market. With a chart you just have to see to believe.

Calculated Risk - more on Q2 GDP. Bill McBride expects private investment to still increase over the coming quarters. I assume McBride has already taken interest rate rises into account when formulating this theory, him being smart and all.

FT beyond brics - India unveils ambitious plan to bring banking to the poor. Which is nice and all, and probably very bad for gold demand if it ever comes to pass, but this is the country that's so far failed to even give these people basic roads, power and sanitation. I'm not holding my breath.

Mining.com - Goldcorp slashes costs 30%. The article asserts their AISC is down to $852/oz. Pretty good! So I guess they're turning in a massive profit now, what with gold at $1300, eh? Eh? Hm? Profit? Massive one? $1300 minus $852 results in a large positive number, no?


Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Some evening news with extensive specialist commentary


New Deal Demoncrat - more on the Q2 GDP. However, he notes there are long leading hints that 2015 might suck.


Ritholtz - whine whine whine I'm so scared why does the market keep going up please hold me. You're such a fucking sissy, Barry. Really. Here's Chopper to beat some sense into you:


The problem is you've lived through a bear market since 2000, and now you're expecting more bear to come when we're quite obviously still nearer the start of a secular bull. Quit pissing your fucking lace panties and party like it's 1994.

Do you remember 1994? If we transported you back to 1994, would you have any fucking clue how to play the 1994 market anymore? Harden the fuck up, Barbara.


Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - memo to CAPE slaves. Again with Shiller CAPE being worthless, which makes me wonder why the hell him and his panty-pissing little kissy-buddy have been giving it all this fucking airtime to begin with. Quote:
One argument that should have gotten more attention as we dismantled the CAPE meme, however, was the fact it almost never tells you to be invested. As Anatole Kaletsky explains at Reuters, waiting for a CAPE buy signal is like waiting for a lucid moment from Courtney Love.
Oh come on Josh, Courtney's too easy a target. Uh, plus her whole history of insane violent outbursts.


FT Alphaville - Fed sees continued underutilization of labour resources. Michael Shaoul disagrees.


Mining.com - robust copper price prompts switch to aluminium. I was just thinking about this over the past few weeks. If you want to replace Cu wire with Al wire, to maintain the same resistivity per unit length all you have to do is up it by 2 on the AWG, which is about a 50%-60% increase in cross-sectional area (thus mass). But copper has three times the density, so by weight you're actually using fewer pounds of aluminium for the same length of wire at a larger gauge.

So why does copper cost so much more than aluminium? Is it because it takes a long time to start the move to substitution? Frankly, we should have all switched to Al wire by now.

Oh and when we finally do, what do you think will happen to the copper price as recycling increases while demand decreases, what with something like 30% of copper demand today already being met by recycling?

And why the fuck can't stupid Americans spell aluminium properly?


Mineweb - Minera IRL sells Don Nicolas for $11.5M. Um... is that a good price, Otto? Is this good news?


BI - billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Singer's biggest worry is... an electromagnetic pulse? Unfortunately, Singer has no fucking clue. He reveals this when he says
The risks associated with electromagnetic pulse, or EMP, represent another story entirely. It can occur naturally, from solar storms that send 'coronal mass ejections,' which are massive energetic bursts of solar wind, tens of millions of miles in a mere few hours. Or it can be artificial, produced by a high-altitude (at least 15 miles) explosion of relatively low-yield (even Hiroshima-strength) nuclear weapons.
No. No it can't, you fucking dumbass. An EMP is not caused by a coronal mass ejection. CMEs cause geomagnetic induced currents, not electromagnetic pulses. A nuke EMP is qualitatively a completely different thing from a geomagnetic induced current. A GIC will not fry your cellphone nor your computer, or for that matter anything that isn't owned by a major electrical generation & distribution utility.

You could have fucking looked that up on Wikipedia, or you could have fucking read about it on Fark or in the comments section of any of a hundred recent articles on the July 2012 CME event. But you didn't. You are asking your investors to believe in bullshit that you've literally just made up in your own fucking head.

You suck as a hedge fund manager, and Joey the Weasel sucks for giving you free press.


Kitco gives a paltry four minutes to the Cookie Monster


Here's Daniela, interviewing The Cookie Monster:



He's in San Diego, so I guess he must be drinking tequila?

Personally I like tequila-based drinks: they sneak up on you, nice and slow, then wham! all of a sudden the minute you try to stand up you're shit-faced drunk.

I dunno why that is. Maybe Brent can explain it.


China and EMs - going up?!?


I read somewhere last night that a whole pile of money has flooded into EM ETFs recently.

Charts:

EEM is moving up, but on decreasing volume. Does it drop back down soon? RSI says maybe.

And how much of this is a contribution from the Nifty 50? We know a pile of Western money has flooded into India recently.



China all-cap is getting mighty stroppy here. Is that supposed to be good for gold, you think? Chinese getting wealthier? I mean, they like to buy gold, no? And the "hard landing" was going to be bad for gold, wasn't it?

Or is this also overbought and about to drop back down? RSI says yes.


Morning news: GDP, GDP, GDP, GDP, and the Ayn Rand Institute are assholes


OK, fine, here's your serious news:


New Deal Demoncrat - Q2 GDP at 4%. And he's not surprised because he saw a strong GDP print forming months ago in his weekly indicators.

FT Alphaville - Q2 GDP was even better than expected. I guess nobody else in the world reads New Deal Demoncrat's weekly indicators? Really, 4% was a slam-dunk; why were these clowns expecting 2.9%?

Calculated Risk - a few GDP graphs. State & local will continue to improve their contribution to GDP from this point forward, as the revenue shortfall disappears. And he notes, no matter what else you read in the lamestream media, residential investment really has nowhere to go but up.

Bespoke - industrials falling apart. Seems everyone's running to defensives. Is that a contrarian buy signal, the way it was the last few times? What is there to be defensive about out there? $VIX is crawling upwards too: what do you need to buy downside protection against right now? Interestingly, $INDU and $TRAN are both rolling over this week. I guess because the strong GDP print means the economy is collapsing, or something.

American Enterprise Institute - the Ayn Rand Institute is disappointed in Paul Ryan. That's what you get for tying your policy cart to a dystopian fantasy cult, Paul! Here's a quote from a nameless ARI randroid:
But of course that assumes we should have a welfare state. … The real question is not whether we should have a “safety net” or not. The question is whether we should have a coercive welfare state. What I find offensive about Ryan’s … whole approach is that it doesn’t regard the rights and well-being of those forced to pay for the welfare state as worthy of much, if any, consideration. Instead, it starts by observing that some people are in need and jumps immediately to the question of what welfare state programs would most help them.

But that’s immoral. Just because there are people out there suffering and Ryan wants to help them doesn’t give him the right to concoct schemes that treat you and me and everyone who pays his own way as a means to Ryan’s supposedly noble ends. What about my goals and priorities? What about my right to pursue happiness? What about yours?
And that's Ayn Rand right there. Has nobody else noticed, btw, the irony of the anti-welfare sentiments of a person whose writings were motivated entirely by bitter memories of how her privileged family lost their wealth in Russia's communist revolution? I mean, Randroids almost seem to want the peasants and proletariat to revolt, don't they? Why not try to avoid that?


Weird news, because boring news is boring


The boring market news has been boring, so here's some weird and silly news instead:


BBC - Chinese spies hack Canada's National Research Council. They obviously are interested in our recent research into producing donuts with maple syrup. Either that or they're becoming concerned with the number of injuries they're seeing from touch icing, and are trying to find out if we've found a solution here.


Right Wing Watch - God gave Alabama coal, so coal plant regulations violate the will of God. In other news, the Alabama Public Service Commission's president is named Twinkle Andress Cavanaugh. And yes, that's a dude. Twinkle. No really, read the article, I'm not making this up.


Mining.com - Goldrea Resources quits the V, relists on the X. Quote:
James Elbert comments, "By selling the Rushan/Daye property in China earlier this year, the Company extinguished approximately four million dollars of debt. This allows Goldrea to focus on mineral projects in North America and places the company in a positive cash position. Along with developing our core holdings, we plan to explore the current ripe environment for deeply discounted quality properties. Our move to the CSE is a positive step in the Company's administration, and we look forward to robust growth in the coming years."
Translation:
James Elbert comments, "My company had nothing but a pile of debt and some moosepasture, now we have no debt and no prospects. It felt pointless for us to continue trading on the Venture, especially now that it's become impossible to raise money even from family and Canadian singer-songwriters. Besides, retail can trade on the X just as easily now, and they don't read audited financials anyway."
A good start!

Tuesday, July 29, 2014

Blog stats fun: my god will you all get a life edition


Sigh....




1. Obvious. That's my blog name. Nice to see it's becoming infamous after only something like three years of hard work.

2. and 3. I guess Daniela's interviewed some famous nitwit again, and the nitwit's followers all have a crush on her now, so they're googlestalking her. I'll go check the Kitco Youtube channel when I get home, but it's probably just some Libertopian cipher like Steve Forbes or Ron Paul again.

4. Yes, that Body Remix/Les Variations Goldberg is a freakin' weird piece of modern dance right there.

5. Yes, I guess she is. It's summer after all. She should try these new Palm Bay Key Lime Cherry freezie alcopops I just found at the LCBO. They're awesome. Unfortunately my employer was apparently recently taken over by fundamentalist puritan Southern Baptist moralizing idiots, so I can't give you a link because "alcohol" is now a banned topic on our internet.

Seriously. The webpage category "alcohol" is banned. This is the same bunch of overpaid upper-management clowns that banned our yearly playoff hockey pool because it's "gambling" and would lead to broken families or sin or some such bullshit.

The moral of this story is, if you're working at a perfectly good Canadian company, and they start buying out American companies and promoting idiot Americans to the management structure, you need to goddamn well leave before they turn into the fucking 100 Huntley Street.

6. Yes she is, we went over this already.

7. "Mila Kunis in panties" is always a good earner, both on this blog and in Hollywood. In fact, Mila should maybe start up a youtube channel where she models underwear: it'd make her a frickin' fortune. Then again, Mila already invested in the S&P back in March 2013 while all the idiot doomers were calling a market top. So why would she need to show off her admittedly gorgeous body for a few advertising pennies when she's already made untold millions with her investments? Just to make me happy, maybe?

8. My god, Canadians are so goddamn lame when Sarah M and Geoff C are the newest "it" couple. What, is everyone already tired of Avril Lavigne and Horseface The Braying Tonedeaf Douchenozzle?

9. I don't remember mentioning "super volcano the movie".

10. Italy. Bit of a funny accent though, definitely not from the south.


Very little news, very much sarcasm


GDXJ looks like it might be failing back down, or maybe not. Who knows. Like I said, I'll bother playing when it re-establishes some sort of trend.

In the meantime, here's some news:


Bespoke - consumer confidence surges. So that's a great reason to sell US equities, right? Cos we're at a top, right?


Ritholtz - on the narcissistic arguments of permadoomers. Here's one example that should be familiar to certain people around here:
CLA: “The market is wildly overvalued. This will end in a crash.”

To which our RP responds, Can we really have a bubble when so many people are calling for a crash? Is that likely?

CLA: “Look at Shiller’s cyclically adjusted price-earnings ratio -- it's wildly overvalued.”

But, as our RP observes, this ratio is going to rise for the next few years during the rebound from the earnings crash of 2008. Besides, the CAPE shows the market has been overvalued for most of the past 15 years. What about other measures of valuation that show markets are fairly valued?

CLA: “They are wrong. The Fed is inflating an asset bubble -- it’s the only thing driving stock prices.”

What, our RP says, about the recovery in earnings? They are up more than 150 percent since the lows.

CLA: “It's just because of the Fed's printing presses and share buybacks. Nothing else matters.”

How can one have a reasoned discussion with these folks?
Answer: you can't. If you really care about them you can leave them alone to make bad, really brutally bad, decisions for a few years while you publicly mock their top-calls in your blog, and suggesting that they read news sources who aren't idiotic goldbugs with no economics comprehension whatsoever like the fucking Caseys, Hussman, Shedlock or (omg wtf lol) Max Keiser.

If they have any wits about them they'll clue in eventually. If they have no wits about them they'll lose all their money and go away.

Tough love is the only way sometimes.


NYMag - Hamas may not have kidnapped Israeli teens. Ha ha! This is so funny!

To recap, Hamas kidnapped and killed three Israeli teens, so some Israelis went out and kidnapped and killed a Palestinian teen, while the army killed ten Palestinians and arrested 600 more.

And that pissed off the Palestinians, so they started firing rockets, to which Israel replied by killing 1200 people in Gaza, including 250 children, and leaving a further 200,000 seeking shelter.

But now, hilariously enough, it was all just a big misunderstanding! Ha ha! Oh, it's so nice to be able to just laugh at this whole silly mess now! Ha ha! I bet the Israelis and Palestinians are just pissing themselves with laughter! Ha ha!

Ha ha!