Friday, August 28, 2015
Still scary to look at, but despite the blather in the lamestream media the S&P 500 has still recovered the entirety of that idiotic Monday morning collapse, and is already back above last Friday's close.
Again, despite the blather of the lamestream media, QQQ has recovered all the way back to last Friday's open.
Note that the EMA(10)s are on these charts, but after such a vicious move you should really pay more attention to a shorter EMA. Except, really, this was such an outlier move that no EMA can really be expected to say anything sensible for a while.
But in any case, you should be framing your deliberation about the US market not in terms of "OMGWEALLGONNADIE", but rather in terms of "on Monday people were so retarded that they puked GE down below $20 and Ford below $11". As in, the recovery from such stupidity has been going on all week now, but it's still not done.
Friday Videos: Florence and the Machine on how investing in QQQ is a hell of a lot better than fucking shitty junior gold miners like B2Gold
Here's Florence on how she's very happy she stuck with a Nasdaq index fund instead of trying to catch the falling fucking cartoon anvil that is B2Gold:
Come on Clive, you pussy. Wanna fight?
Wednesday, August 26, 2015
Man oh man:
Yo mama went from around $1.75 to $2.45 and the people who bought at the bottom felt they were all oh so clever, til it went back down to $1.77. What a one-month round trip! Nice turnaround at the magical SMA(50) too.
B2Clive went from around $1.00 to $1.37 and the people who bought at the bottom felt they were all oh so clever, til it went back down to $1.09. What a one-month round trip! Nice turnaround at the magical SMA(50) too.
McEwen went from $0.65 to $1.00 and the people who bought at the bottom felt they were all oh so clever, til it went back down to $0.72. What a one-month round trip!
I'm not saying I know what forced liquidation looks like, but I imagine it would probably look something like this, especially with gold still at $1125. Hey, if gold goes back to $1050, or even to Jeffy Currie's $1000, maybe GDX will have to do a reverse split at $5. That'd be a great buy point, no?
I mean, if gold ever were to go up again that is.
You probably don't mind that I haven't kept you up to date with the news, since the market obviously doesn't give a crap.
But I may as well clean out my inbox:
Calculated Risk - July existing homes sales highest pace in eight years. Therefore puke the S&P.
Reuters - consumer confidence, housing blah blah WE DON'T CARE ABOUT ECONOMIC DATA OMG SELL SELL SELL. Frankly, I'm starting to think Pooty-Poot handed Kim Jong-Un the passwords for JPM and GS's prop desks, and this whole market collapse is actually North Korean hackers trying to fuck with Whitey.
New Deal Demoncrat - will you shut up about China already. Quote:
I expect that the main fallout of the China syndrome on the US economy will be cheaper gas and cheaper mortgages. That strikes me, on net, as a positive.OK fine, but even still:
The Krugginator - it's getting tighter all the ti-i-ime! (Tighter, tighter, tigh-ter!) Where he notes:
When thinking about the market madness and its possible real effects, here’s something you — where by “you” I mean the Fed in particular — really, really need to keep in mind: the markets have already, in effect, tightened monetary conditions quite a lot.And then charts and so on, to illustrate the idea that recent market heebie-jeebies have acted like a US Fed rate hike. That's fine, K-dog: but the Fed doesn't diddle with rates every single stupid time the break-evens hit an extreme in the chart, do they? The Fed funds rate is just an underlying condition around which everything varies stupidly. For you to suggest otherwise means you must have looked at your 401-K recently.
First of all, if break-evens (the difference between interest rates on ordinary bonds and inflation-protected bonds) are any guide, inflation expectations have fallen sharply:
Streetwise Professor - I knew Black Monday. Black Monday was a friend of mine. He says this Monday is no big deal, cos he was around on a Monday when the market was -9 standard deviations. Well, good for you, but today the market is a different machine. Thanks for freaking people out, though; maybe you can get a job at Business Insider someday when Sam Ro finally gets sick of the taste of vomit in his mouth like Mamta Badkar did.
The Chronicles of Brodrick - robots flying at the speed of sound to show you how it all began. Included for this bitchslap:
Dude, I have heard people declare “China is doomed” since 2005. Someday they’re gonna be right. But are the odds any better now than, say, during the big global recession in 2008?Well, Sean, you've just fucked your chances of working at Business Insider one day.
No. Not unless China’s leaders have lost their will to throw money at problems. Headlines like “There’s No Saving China Now” are written by and for idiots and newbs.
Time - pollster's legs wobble after Donald Trump focus group. And hey, his upcoming presidential nomination really does make perfect sense when you listen to the Trump supporters:
“I think America is pissed. Trump’s the first person that came out and voiced exactly what everybody’s been saying all along,” one man said. “When he talks, deep down somewhere you’re going, ‘Holy crap, someone is thinking the same way I am.’”Goodbye Republican Party! You made the ground fertile for Donald Trump, and now he's going to be in charge.
“When Trump talks, it may not be presented in a pristine, PC way, but we’ve been having that crap pushed to us for the past 40 years!” said another man. “He’s saying what needs to be said.”
“I used to sleep on my front porch with the door wide open, and now everyone has deadbolts,” one man said. “I believe the best days of the country are behind us.”
“I’m frustrated beyond belief. I feel like I’ve been lied to,” a woman said. “Nothing’s getting better.”
“We know his goal is to make America great again,” a woman said. “It’s on his hat. And we see it every time it’s on TV. Everything that he’s doing, there’s no doubt why he’s doing it: it’s to make America great again.”
“We’ve got to show the Republicans that we’ve had it with them, that we will not be there every single time. They treat us like crap and they lie to us and promise us things and then they expect us to vote again,” said a Republican woman. “That’s why we want Trump.”
And despite all the gloating and the bottom-calling that you read these past few days about gold miners:
It turns out they still really, really suck. Like, down almost 20% in four days suck.
Tuesday, August 25, 2015
BI - US futures rip higher, ignore what Blodget was saying this weekend about how stocks were going to fall 50%. And it's all because of a 0.5% cut in China's reserve ratio. Now the world is better again. Or something. Fuck I dunno. Here's David Kostin from Goldman Sachs:
"We expect the US economy will avoid contagion and continue to expand. S&P 500 will rise by 11% to reach 2,100 at year-end."
Kostin thinks we could experience something similar to what we saw in 1998, when a currency crisis in Asia resulted in only temporary jitters in the US.
"S&P 500 plunged by 14% during August 1998 before rallying by 29% during the last four months of the year," he wrote. "Ultimately, the US economy was relatively unaffected by overseas financial market gyrations in 1998 and we believe a similar situation will occur in 2015."
And if you remember, 1998 was late in the cycle, and there was still a shitload of money to be made in the US market after that correction.
And despite what a lot of people are saying, we're still probably early in the US cycle: progress out of the crash bottom has been slower, housing hasn't taken off yet, wages haven't risen yet, unemployment has only just gotten out of the danger zone, we've had 6 years of government spending cuts and spending will only be able to increase when state governments are in surplus, and there's been no initiation of rate rises yet.
Those of you who e.g. puked Ford to $10.50 yesterday should probably take the rest of your money out of the market and buy CDs because you're a danger to yourself and your portfolio. And that means you, hedge fund cokehead clowns.
Monday, August 24, 2015
I didn't like his blog before, but it seems he's gotten better.
Cam Hui - relax and have a flaky. He ends by noting that as long as the Nazis aren't rolling their tanks into Paris, you can expect the market to make back all its losses.
Cam Hui - is this the Ashley Madison market panic? Wherein he has graphics like this:
and then other things like $TRIN and the participation index and $CPCE and so on but you probably don't have to worry about those when blogosphere crackheads are calling for the next 1929.
Man, I've already got more than double the usual daily blog traffic, and it's not all Sean Brodrick leaving comments complimenting my musical taste.
Good to see you're all following me. Now go get a second mortgage ASAP and buy a short VIX ETF like it's going out of style.*
* - nothing on this blog should be construed as investment advice, an inducement to buy or sell securities, or anything other than the insane ramblings of a violent sociopath who's had too much coffee today.
The Chronicles of Brodrick - how much lower can $SPX go? Quote:
Here is a chart showing corrections since the big one in 2008. The last correction was 10%. There was a panic at the time. Do you even remember it? It was the "Ebola Is Going to Kill America" scare.Hi Sean, thanks for mentioning my blog. I await my royalty cheque.
EDIT: Yes of course I like Sean Brodrick's blog. At least he's sensible and responsible, unlike absolutely every single other blogging clown out there.
No, I don't really need a link, Sean, I was just teasing. Your readers would find me offensive anyway.
QQQ as of:
Look at the Bollingers.
QQQ was puked down nine standard deviations this morning.
I blame Josh Brown for saying we'd see another 1929, and Henry Blodget for saying stocks would drop 50%.
Seriously. There was no fundamental reason for that -9SD collapse. There was only the fearmongering of the clickwhore press. For those suckers who puked at the open, I strongly suggest you seek out Josh Brown and Henry Blodget, and explain in Anglo-Saxon terms (both linguistic and, as legally as possible, behavioural) your displeasure.