Friday, September 19, 2014

EMERGING MARKETS SUCK: here's what happens next


Here's a chart:


That actually is a H&S topping pattern getting drawn right now.

It is, because the right shoulder is malformed (hardly exists, actually), and the right side is where you see greatly increasing volume. Those are the two necessary characteristics for a real H&S, as opposed to the make-believe crap you get from the twopenny TAs.

Target's only about $41 or so.


WHAT'S NEXT FOR SILVER?: the answer will shock you!


Here's silver as of today:


Given the break of the triangle on the weekly chart, here (well, after the break anyway) is my prediction of what will happen to the silver price next:

WHAT INKACOLA DOESN'T WANT YOU TO KNOW: the answer will shock you!


IKN's been having fun putting the boot to poor Clive Johnson recently.

Figuratively, of course, since Clive is also a master rugby player and all-around tough nut, while IKN's author is a little 5-foot-3 hobbit, 90 pounds soaking wet, who needs to get tied down to a tree whenever there's a strong breeze.

So let's look at the past four days' action in RIOM and BTG:


Hey, what's this?

It seems over the past 4 days, BTG is up 2.6% while RIOM is down 6.4%.

Remind me which company is a brilliant low-cost gold producer with a swarm of new mines coming onstream, and which is a break-even dirt-farm with a couple years' production left?

:-)

SAY GOODBYE TO YOUR BITCOINS, LOSERS: you can imagine what happens next


FT Alphaville - ha ha, Buttcoin sucks. Quote:

This is Jean-Paul Rodrigue’s stages of a bubble chart:

This is a chart of the price of Bitcoin from the BoE:

See any resemblance?

I'm wondering what's going to be the next fad for clowns like Rahul Pal who hyped this buttcoin bullshit in the first place. I mean, he will really have to outdo himself to find a new crowd of ignorant followers after buttcoin collapses 99%.

Or are we about to witness the end of techno-libertarianism? Will that whole crowd have to go back to selling overpriced fake MREs? Is Jim Bakker actually ahead of the curve here?


Friday videos, ye scurvy dogs!: David Guetta's "Lovers on the Sun", starring Ray Liotta as Brent "Angel Eyes" Cook


Yarr, me lads!* I fathom country two-step Eurodance is now a thing and everybody's got to do it!



Frankly, I wish they'd kept it a dark country tune, but then I guess they would be musicians and not DJs.

I also wish Liotta would have done some Westerns. He's easily the squinty type of character that Clint could have easily passed the baton to.

Hear me, Hollywood? Give Liotta a fucking Western. Seriously, you gave one to Sharon Stone for fuck's sake.

And aye, that really be Ray Liotta, with the Brent Cook beard.

Seriously, Cookie, you're aging quite well compared to Liotta, eh?



* - as a reminder, today be International Talk Like a Pirate Day.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

MAN FINDS PIECE OF KFC CHICKEN THAT LOOKS LIKE THE UK WITHOUT SCOTLAND: holy hell this is freaking me out right here


Er.

Mah.

GERD!!!!

Daily Mirror - man finds piece of KFC chicken shaped like the UK without Scotland.*

This is so ominous.

You know what it means?

It means I'm really frickin' hungry for some fried chicken right now.



* - link submitted by Daniela Cambone.

Yes! Yes! Let's all pile on gold a week before opex.


Oh, all of a sudden today everyone has decided to poop on gold. Let's look at some of the follower crowd:

BI - gold looks like death.

And of course, here chimes in the one single person in the world who still has even a shred of respect for Joey the Weasel:

Reformed Borker (Bork Bork Bork!) - boy gold sucks.

And god, even someone vaguely respectable has chimed in:

New Deal Demoncrat - John Hinderaker is a moron (and also gold sucks).

Well, that settles it.

It is obvious that Chinese and Indians will no longer buy even another ounce of gold. Evar.

World central banks will all soon puke their gold into the market and stick to maintaining reserves in USD, GBP, EUR and JPY from now on.

Women in the future will provide sex for chocolate.

You'll maybe wire your house with gold once it drops to $3/lb.


Thursday news


Gold opex is next week, so I guess we're still in the danger zone for the time being.

Here's some stuff:


New Deal Demoncrat - loosening the oil choke collar. He notes "we could see a new 35-year high in real wages within the next six months or so", as the price of oil drops. This, people, is what drives developed market secular bull moves.

New Deal Demoncrat - John Hinderaker can't even read a fucking graph. I enjoy this new NDD who goes out of his way to make fun of people. Need more of that on the internet.

FT beyond brics - banking the unbanked in India. I find it heartening from a goldbug perspective that while over a hundred million Indians have opened bank accounts, they haven't actually put any money in them.

FT beyond brics - three new engines of growth in China. And they can bring growth inland, unlike India, because China has excess capacity in modernized rail and road transport, while India still has dirt tracks. So China can grow its economy while India can't. But please do keep blathering on about how China's capital-intensive hard asset investment is bad, okay?

Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Some news


Spent yesterday doing something else, apparently.

Here's some newsbits:

FT beyond brics - Brazil's central bank agrees, the outlook is dismal. Seems like it's the end of easy times for the emerging markets, eh?

FT Alphaville - brent weakness is now a thing. Not the newsletter writer, the oil. Seems like the end of easy times for commodities, no?

Mining.com - India gold imports rocket 176%. Oh FFS, I've had enough of this crap.

IKN - meet the newest streamer, Osisko. IKN should remember that what's bad for the streamers is fantastic for the miners. I mean, where else are they supposed to get capital? Though of course they're giving up the upside; but they'll give up less and less upside as the streamer space becomes crowded, no? What, you don't like the idea of a free market?

Daily Mail - Meet the newest goldbug: Jim Bakker. Quote:
To move out of the red and fund their new ministry, 90 percent of the new TV program consists of Bakker and his new wife and preaching partner, Lori Graham Bakker, trying to sell supplies.

And their big push right now is on survival products, which Bakker calls 'Love Gifts.'

Among the offerings are the Time of Trouble Beans Offer, consisting of 14 totes full of black bean burger mix for $3,000; Bakker's Dozen Extreme Canteen Kit, including 13 packs of ponchos, thermal blankets, glow stick and whistles for $500; and his Survival Food Brick Monthly Club with 90 servings of food for $50 per month.
Well OK, he's not selling gold and silver coins just yet, but I'm sure he'll get there. Because Jesus.

Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Boy, rare earths sure turned out well, eh?


Myles Udland lays on the sarcasm:

BI - hey, remember when rare earths were supposed to be the can't-lose investment of the decade?

Do you know anyone who was tooting the rare earths horn a few years ago? You might want to remind them about how much their idea sucked:

Four risk-on charts to ponder as risk-on rallies


Here's 4 risk-on charts to ponder as risk-on rallies:



HYG is printing a bullish multi-outside candle today, after having spent several days at -2SD and RSI dropping to 30.

So you'd think at the very least it's gotta be good for a few-day bounce to the short EMA or the Bollinger mean.


$VIX is printing an outside day after having gone +3SD - with the previously-noted period-dependency caveat, of course.

It is still in its upward trend, don't forget that! I guess you should really wait til it breaks below its short EMA before you bring out the beer.

Nevertheless, the bigger the red candle, the more I suspect the $VIX rise is done.

I guess we'll get to see tomorrow how much of the downside protection buying of the past month was just being done in anticipation of this week's Fed meeting. Cos damn, $VIX sure has been trending upward for a month now and frankly that just looks silly.



Well, silver's chart is still frickin' atrocious. Today's pop doesn't change the downtrend at all. Though maybe, with silver having trended down for 2 straight months already, "down" might have become far too much of a sure thing and it might be about time for Mistress Market to discipline the shorts with some vigourous anal lovemaking.

I dunno, it might still take a couple days before we really know what's going on with silver.



But if we don't know what's going on with silver, why should GDXJ be looking positive?

I like this chart. There's been a massive blob of selling all through September: look at the selling volume in that chart. Far too much volume. Looks funny.

What did all that selling accomplish, price-wise?

I guess it's still adviseable to sit and wait for GDXJ to crawl back above the EMA, and silver to end its downtrend. After all, the trade that you should want to make is a multi-month 30% advance in your favourite junior miner. You should not want to make a 3% stupid daytrade. But the multi-month 30% advance will give you a few days' warning, so there should be no rush, no?


India monsoon news


Everything went risk-on at 11:30 today, and as far as I can tell it's a kneejerk to the announcement of extra liquidity from the Bank of China. Though some people are attributing it to commentary from Hilsenrath, as if that could really affect FXI and SLV.

Even still, just in case we still care about precious metals, let's check up on that monsoon:


Economic Times - monsoon withdrawal delayed. Seems there's going to be a late harvest. Quote:

"We expect arrivals to begin at the earliest with the crop looking to be good," said HS Rosha of rice trading company Sohan Singh Rosha & Sons at Punjab's Khanna mandi.

Last year, the monsoon started withdrawing from Rajasthan on September 9 and from Himachal Pradesh, Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat on September 19. Over the past several years, the monsoon has lingered on in northern India until the last week of September.

Heavy showers over the past few weeks have eased concerns over a drought this year as the rain deficit has now narrowed closer to the 10% considered by meteorologists to declare drought. This season's rainfall was 11% less than the 50-year average considered as normal at the end of last week, but much better compared with the 21% shortfall at the end of July.

Meanwhile, private weather forecaster Skymet Weather Services said it expects monsoon's withdrawal to commence by the weekend.

WHO'S SELLING CHINA?: the answer will shock you


Heh heh heh. I love writing Business Insider style headlines.

Anyway, I was over at Zerohedge reading the headlines. I like doing this when the US market goes risk-off, just to remind myself what stupid things American investors will be blaming the flows on.

Zerohedge noted that Chinese equities have been getting killed the past few days.

So hey, let's look at some charts!


Yup, the China 25 ETF, which owns a bunch of state-owned industries and which American hedge funds buy because it's the only one with liquidity, has dropped hard this past week.



And yup, YAO, the China All-Cap ETF that nobody buys, has dropped in tandem.

My gawd, China is really getting hamm oh wait


Um, why is the Shanghai exchange still moving up? There's no failed breakout after all.

In fact, FXI as of close yesterday was trading at a slight (<-1%) discount to NAVPS.

So basically, Americans are the ones who are selling China.

Because reasons.